How we can get a real star shortstop

[Will M]

IMO the Reds can trade the following players:
1. Stubbs. Dickerson & Heissey can be our centerfielders for a few years
2. Bailey or Thompson (not both)
3. Valaika
4. Maloney. decent prospect but poor fit for GABP
5. Dorn. if EE goes to LF with Rosales at 3B and with the Frazier/Soto/Fransisco on the way he could be dealt

Some (not all) package of these players could be:
1. dealt for JJ Hardy
2. dealt for Jake Peavey who is then traded to the Mets for Reyes.
why would the Mets do this? they want pitching & Reyes/Wright are blamed for their recent underperformance
3. dealt for Jake Peavey. then Arroyo is dealt to the Braves for Escobar.
4. dealt for Jake Peavey who is then dealt for Escobar++

[kpresidente]

The Rays need are looking for a cheap RH DH. I've thought about something like Encarnacion for Brignac + whatever. Only thing is, the might think even EE is too expensive given that he's entering arbitration. I also question whether Brignac is any better than Valaika at this point.

Some other names I'd be putting out there are:

Ramirez
Fisher or Roenicke (not both)
Francisco

[Krusty]

I think the Reds go in the 2009 season with Gonzalez as the shortstop and either Keppinger or Paul Janish as his caddy.

But I think the Reds future shortstop is Chris Valaika. And he should be ready to inherit the position come 2010.

[RedlegJake]

This post just got me thinking about a lot of things relative to SS's and the Reds.

First, the Reds don't really need a star at shortstop. Just a good gloveman who isn't abysmal at the plate. Janish didn't get a full shot but still, with his minor league numbers and brief offensive suckitude it's pretty clear he only fills half the bill. Kepp is just good enough a hitter to fill half the bill but his range severely undermines his SS play.

Emphasis on D with a bat that's at least not putrid. That's all. Anything more is just gravy. Sometimes I think Zoners get all BRM'd (or "90'ed" for you younger guys) in their desire for a star everywhere - every catching candidate is trounced because they ain't JB, every SS gets compared to Davey or Larkin, every OFer has to be Foster or ED.

Just get this team to ML average at each position - no glaring weakness. The stars will simply happen. The Votto's and the Bruce's will come along. Or the Frazier's and Alonso's, and the Cueto's and maybe the Lotzkar's. Just work on average everywhere else, on getting rid of sinkholes. NO CP's or Stanton's or Foggs or Bako's. When there are no real weaknesses you can always upgrade more with a free agent and then your investment has a chance to become something special. So much money is wasted on Free Agents that don't have a chance to make a difference.

Have meaningful roles for your backups. Janish for his glove, Kepp for his contact hitting, Castillo for his versatility and glove at several spots, etc. Remember they're backups. Look to a trade or AAA for a youngster to replace a starter on the DL - NOT your backups.

If you need that emergency replacement for a long DL stint better it's a cheap veteran who might have a month's worth of leg left in him, or a future starter who can get some experience under his belt than a guy who is, well, a backup to start with (a few games, a week that's different. I'm talking a month or 6 weeks).

Signing Furcal for instance is asking for another AGon situation. The guy has bad back problems. Sacroiliac sprains that severe don't disappear. Once a lower back is weakened like that it is always a risk. A 1 year deal I'd gamble but three years? I'll bet right now whoever signs Furcal to a 3 year deal eats at minimum one year of that deal in time lost to the DL over that span.

As for AGon's knee fracture a lot of bunk has been posted about it being an injury where his knee wore out and he can't ever recover yada yada. Compression fractures of the knee are completely different from compression fractures in the spine. In the spine it is usually caused by that "wearing out" of several vertebrae and is a degenerative condition. In the knee it's not the same thing - it is usually caused by a blow, or hyperextension and can involve the patella, or the femur or the tibia or all three, plus the ligaments. Without access to AGon's medical reports there is no way of knowing the exact extent and rehab is long for ANY knee surgery. There is a huge difference depending on his exact medical diagnosis and extent of surgery in how well he can recover. It is entirely within the realm of possibility he can resume play with little or no appreciable effect on his movement. The idea that his knee wore out is just wrong as stated. It IS possible the fracture was caused by an injury to the ligaments and soft tissue that then failed to support the joint properly leading to the fracture but it was the underlying injury preceding the fracture that caused that failure NOT his joint giving way due to long wear and age. Two entirely different things. AGon CAN come back. And barring access to his charts no one has any way to say he's not going to be the same or able to fully recover.

Anyway, to get back to the main subject of the thread, how many of your trading chips do you want to put into getting a SS? The pickings are slim. They basically range from very expensive older options like Furcal, to expensive to acquire options like Hardy or Escobar to a slew of guys who don't really, imo, improve a darn thing because they don't meet the league average criteria. Either they're older and declining or aren't that good to begin with. We already have a slick glove that can't hit, and a decent hitter with poor range, and the league average SS who is still a medical mystery - adding another in any category simply seems a waste of time. Talking about guys like Andrus is going nowhere because the Rangers aren't parting with him short of a ridiculous package. Hardy probably falls into that same category. Ridiculous price. Arias might be the answer but I'd only want him if he was cheaply acquired because he is far from a sure bet (kprez might be right - Janish might be just as good).

Every year doesn't hold every answer. Sometimes the best thing is to fall back, assess and do the best you can until something more propitious does come along. Forcing a Hardy deal, or an Escobar deal or signing Furcal might seem an answer in mid winter but the cost might prove a nightmare in mid summer.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I agree with Krusty. Wait for Valaika. Too many other needs at the present.

[bucksfan2]

Take the time machine back to 1985, kidnap Barry Larkin, and bring him to this club.

There really isn't an easy answer to this question. You want a "star" SS and it will take you a "star" player in order to get one. The Reds don't have the depth anywhere to make a move like that. Anyone remember what it took Florida to get Ramirez? Josh Beckett. You can wait for Valakia and wait, but what if he doesn't turn out? I see Janish as an Adam Evertt type, good glove, weak bat. The question then becomes will the Reds have a good enough offense to hit Janish 8th?

[RollyInRaleigh]

It's baseball and the things that drive GM's to drink. Just proves that you better have a good scouting staff, and even then, there are a lot of variables, particularly for small markets.

[remdog]

Jake:

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night? 'Cause you're playing a doctor really well.

Rem

[mth123]

The Rays need are looking for a cheap RH DH. I've thought about something like Encarnacion for Brignac + whatever. Only thing is, the might think even EE is too expensive given that he's entering arbitration. I also question whether Brignac is any better than Valaika at this point.

Some other names I'd be putting out there are:

Ramirez
Fisher or Roenicke (not both)
Francisco

EE and Roenicke should get their attention. Maybe Brignac and Edwin Jackson. Good idea. I like it.

[OnBaseMachine]

EdE and Roenicke for Brignac? No way I do that deal. Brignac is a fine shortstop prospect but his career minor league OPS is 29 points lower than Valaika's.

[pahster]

EdE and Roenicke for Brignac? No way I do that deal. Brignac is a fine shortstop prospect but his career minor league OPS is 29 points lower than Valaika's.

He also had a .299 OBP in AAA last year.

[Mario-Rijo]

This post just got me thinking about a lot of things relative to SS's and the Reds.

First, the Reds don't really need a star at shortstop. Just a good gloveman who isn't abysmal at the plate. Janish didn't get a full shot but still, with his minor league numbers and brief offensive suckitude it's pretty clear he only fills half the bill. Kepp is just good enough a hitter to fill half the bill but his range severely undermines his SS play.

Emphasis on D with a bat that's at least not putrid. That's all. Anything more is just gravy. Sometimes I think Zoners get all BRM'd (or "90'ed" for you younger guys) in their desire for a star everywhere - every catching candidate is trounced because they ain't JB, every SS gets compared to Davey or Larkin, every OFer has to be Foster or ED.

Just get this team to ML average at each position - no glaring weakness. The stars will simply happen. The Votto's and the Bruce's will come along. Or the Frazier's and Alonso's, and the Cueto's and maybe the Lotzkar's. Just work on average everywhere else, on getting rid of sinkholes. NO CP's or Stanton's or Foggs or Bako's. When there are no real weaknesses you can always upgrade more with a free agent and then your investment has a chance to become something special. So much money is wasted on Free Agents that don't have a chance to make a difference.

Agree very good post.

Have meaningful roles for your backups. Janish for his glove, Kepp for his contact hitting, Castillo for his versatility and glove at several spots, etc. Remember they're backups. Look to a trade or AAA for a youngster to replace a starter on the DL - NOT your backups.

If you need that emergency replacement for a long DL stint better it's a cheap veteran who might have a month's worth of leg left in him, or a future starter who can get some experience under his belt than a guy who is, well, a backup to start with (a few games, a week that's different. I'm talking a month or 6 weeks).

Interesting, but don't know about Castillo specifically, it doesn't seem like he is a good bet to hit but we'll see. Rosales OTOH fits that mold I think.

Signing Furcal for instance is asking for another AGon situation. The guy has bad back problems. Sacroiliac sprains that severe don't disappear. Once a lower back is weakened like that it is always a risk. A 1 year deal I'd gamble but three years? I'll bet right now whoever signs Furcal to a 3 year deal eats at minimum one year of that deal in time lost to the DL over that span.

What do you know about the Sacroiliac sprains Jake, that is what I have been dealing with for over a year now. At least that's the initial diagnosis but haven't really been able to get more specific since then. I walk for about 5-7 minutes and then my back becomes very weak and painful in my middle lower. Granted I am a big boy so the weight has a big effect on that issue but I can't imagine trying to play pro ball 162+ games a season not too mention staying in shape in the offseason and spring training.

As for AGon's knee fracture a lot of bunk has been posted about it being an injury where his knee wore out and he can't ever recover yada yada. Compression fractures of the knee are completely different from compression fractures in the spine. In the spine it is usually caused by that "wearing out" of several vertebrae and is a degenerative condition. In the knee it's not the same thing - it is usually caused by a blow, or hyperextension and can involve the patella, or the femur or the tibia or all three, plus the ligaments. Without access to AGon's medical reports there is no way of knowing the exact extent and rehab is long for ANY knee surgery. There is a huge difference depending on his exact medical diagnosis and extent of surgery in how well he can recover. It is entirely within the realm of possibility he can resume play with little or no appreciable effect on his movement. The idea that his knee wore out is just wrong as stated. It IS possible the fracture was caused by an injury to the ligaments and soft tissue that then failed to support the joint properly leading to the fracture but it was the underlying injury preceding the fracture that caused that failure NOT his joint giving way due to long wear and age. Two entirely different things. AGon CAN come back. And barring access to his charts no one has any way to say he's not going to be the same or able to fully recover.

I don't have much comment on this except to say we shouldn't necc. be depending on him bouncing back either. I think the fact that Walt even called on Furcal at all says something.

Anyway, to get back to the main subject of the thread, how many of your trading chips do you want to put into getting a SS? The pickings are slim. They basically range from very expensive older options like Furcal, to expensive to acquire options like Hardy or Escobar to a slew of guys who don't really, imo, improve a darn thing because they don't meet the league average criteria. Either they're older and declining or aren't that good to begin with. We already have a slick glove that can't hit, and a decent hitter with poor range, and the league average SS who is still a medical mystery - adding another in any category simply seems a waste of time. Talking about guys like Andrus is going nowhere because the Rangers aren't parting with him short of a ridiculous package. Hardy probably falls into that same category. Ridiculous price. Arias might be the answer but I'd only want him if he was cheaply acquired because he is far from a sure bet (kprez might be right - Janish might be just as good).

I agree with most of this as well but what you are missing is the middle of that range. A guy who won't be very expensive to acquire in terms of talent or dollars, is league average both offensively and defensively, is on a team where he isn't the SS of the future or even the present really, is young enough to be around for awhile but can play right now but not so old that he has no prime left. And ideally can hit at the top of the lineup for 2 reasons. 1 he's a SS so he needs to on a Baker ran team and 2 because we are more devoid of guys who can hit at the top of the lineup than most realize.

Not too many of those types around which is why M. Izturis is the perfect current target. Heck we could over pay for him and it not be too expensive for my taste.

Every year doesn't hold every answer. Sometimes the best thing is to fall back, assess and do the best you can until something more propitious does come along. Forcing a Hardy deal, or an Escobar deal or signing Furcal might seem an answer in mid winter but the cost might prove a nightmare in mid summer.

Well I agree but 1st you just simply have to determine what an Escobar or Hardy is worth to ya and at some point offer that at most. If it's not good enough just walk away and wait for something to present itself. But best case scenario w/o acquiring a SS is Gonzo and company get us through another year and Valaika proves capable after that. Neither of which I am necc. wildly optimistic about which means you have a hole there that needs filled and fairly soon.