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Thread: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

  1. #16
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.

    Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.
    Cue Slimshady coming out of nowhere telling you how VORP, TPOP, and DEEBOP, make Dunn the best player eva.
    @#$% my @#$%^*&

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  3. #17
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.

    Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.
    I actually agree with you, Dunn drove me nuts and I was happy when he was traded. I was just being sarcastic I guess I should have used one of these. I also would be very surprised if Dunn got a big boy contract for multiple years, I just dont think he has that kind of value to a team.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Well we all know Dunn is no Barry Zito. Dunn should hit in the second slot. He isn't Manny but he is better than Pat Burrell. Consistency is huge in baseball and no one is more so that Dunn.
    Last edited by Dunnateher; 11-21-2008 at 07:20 AM.

  5. #19
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    dunn will be paid and at least $15 million+ a year, probably more. there just aren't alot of 40 hr hitters available. he could be a nice fit for a team but it depends on the team/situation. he'd be a cheaper replacement of teix for anaheim, they could keep him at dh if they wanted, and he'd complement the contact hitters they have. imo, that would make some sense but a move to left field/1st base in dc wouldn't nearly as much.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  6. #20
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    I hope that the Reds resign Dunn at a bargain this offseason. I don't care how they do it, bring Kearns back cheap if it helps resign him.

    Dunn is never going to be masterful in LF but there aren't really many options that are, I can live with that. Trading away one of the better sluggers the Reds produced is going to haunt us. If he doesn't end up too expensive, he's a very good option for a club that needs offense.

  7. #21
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    dunn will be paid and at least $15 million+ a year, probably more. there just aren't alot of 40 hr hitters available. he could be a nice fit for a team but it depends on the team/situation. he'd be a cheaper replacement of teix for anaheim, they could keep him at dh if they wanted, and he'd complement the contact hitters they have. imo, that would make some sense but a move to left field/1st base in dc wouldn't nearly as much.
    I really doubt Dunn makes more than 15 million, I hope he gets it for himself and his family but I just dont see it.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  8. #22
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by schmidty622 View Post
    Cue Slimshady coming out of nowhere telling you how VORP, TPOP, and DEEBOP, make Dunn the best player eva.
    Adam Dunn had a combined VORP between Arizona and Cincinnati of about 38 runs according to BP. That would put him about 45th overall in the MLB in VORP, so Dunn is certainly not the best player ever but he is still very good. I would say that you would need to factor in his defense and that would drop his overall value a decent amount because VORP is just based on offense. I don't recognize TPOP and DEEBOP, what are those?:
    Baseball is not necessarily an obsessive-compulsive disorder, like washing your hands 100 times a day, but it's beginning to seem that way. We're reaching the point where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life. Take your pick. ~Thomas Boswell

    Having a life is overrated.

  9. #23
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    I hope that the Reds resign Dunn at a bargain this offseason. I don't care how they do it, bring Kearns back cheap if it helps resign him.

    Dunn is never going to be masterful in LF but there aren't really many options that are, I can live with that. Trading away one of the better sluggers the Reds produced is going to haunt us. If he doesn't end up too expensive, he's a very good option for a club that needs offense.
    let it go, just let it go.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    I really doubt Dunn makes more than 15 million, I hope he gets it for himself and his family but I just dont see it.
    i don't hope he will make more than 15 million but i think he will. teix is expected to make in excess of $20 million a season. i'd be surprised if dunn didn't receive at least 15.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  10. #24
    Member Emin3mShady07's Avatar
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    i don't hope he will make more than 15 million but i think he will. teix is expected to make in excess of $20 million a season. i'd be surprised if dunn didn't receive at least 15.
    While I am still stuck on VORP, I will just say that Tex had a VORP over 65 runs between ATL and LAA, which puts him at 6th in the Majors, and as I said before, Dunn's was about 38. That is a humongous difference and Tex is at least an average fielder at 1B and Dunn is very sub-par in the OF. Tex posted an OPS of .963 and an OPS+ of 150. Dunn posted an OPS of .899 and an OPS+ of 129. So, all things considered, if Tex got 20 million I would say a fair price for Dunn is 12-13 million, not 15 million, but we shall see what the market eventually decides to give Dunn.
    Baseball is not necessarily an obsessive-compulsive disorder, like washing your hands 100 times a day, but it's beginning to seem that way. We're reaching the point where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life. Take your pick. ~Thomas Boswell

    Having a life is overrated.

  11. #25
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    noone will say that dunn is better than teix including me. but do you actually think that dunn could make less than he made this year when he's had 40 hrs each of the last 5 years, averaged 100 rbi, and has a career .381 obp? i don't. markets aren't always "fair" and can be very irrational at times. someone will pay especially when there are only so many available options to help an offense. plus defense won't matter if he becomes a dh.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  12. #26
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    noone will say that dunn is better than teix including me. but do you actually think that dunn could make less than he made this year when he's had 40 hrs each of the last 5 years, averaged 100 rbi, and has a career .381 obp? i don't. markets aren't always "fair" and can be very irrational at times. someone will pay especially when there are only so many available options to help an offense. plus defense won't matter if he becomes a dh.
    Two words..... the economy.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  13. #27
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    yeah i also think the economy may have an effect. but just not as much on the better FA's that are available.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  14. #28
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    yeah i also think the economy may have an effect. but just not as much on the better FA's that are available.
    I think its not going to matter as much on the top flight FA's but is Dunn a top flight FA?
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  15. #29
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    if a team wants to add some power to their lineup he is.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  16. #30
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    Re: Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.

    I think MLB teams are very worried about the economy. If things get worse in 2009, and all indications are that it will, there will be a lot less people in the seats.

    Blue collar markets like Cincinnati will be hit harder than most markets, IMO.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card


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