Let me ask you this.....would you have traded Jared Burton for Coco?
Let me ask you this.....would you have traded Jared Burton for Coco?
For Love of the Game
"If you aren't first; you're last"
I think as a Red, Beltre could be reasonably expected to OPS around .820 with .850 not being crazy talk in a good year.
He actually doesn't struggle against righties. His career splits show only a slight platoon effect. In '08 he did poorly against righties but a lot of that was BABIP driven.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Right now the Reds have got an OF of Bruce, Dickerson (who is no sure thing) and ???.
If you pick up Dejesus, that protects against cataclysm if Dickerson turns out to be a flash in the pan. Plus, Dickerson/Dejesus/Bruce could cover some ground.
Maybe the plan is to go for a big corner OF bat, in which case obviously Dejesus isn't the right fit, but I like his game and the Reds would be hard-pressed to land a better player in the OF this season.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...=gammons_peter
The Red Sox surveyed what was a surprisingly small market for Crisp -- Cincinnati was the other club with the most interest -- and decided that with Jeremy Affeldt starting out the 2008 free-agent market by signing a two-year, $8 million deal with the Giants, that it likely will be easier to find another outfielder than secure a low-cost power reliever.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
I would've liked to have had Coco Crisp but I wouldn't trade Jared Burton for him.
So you're thinking .340 OB, .480 SLG neighborhood with .350/.500 being in range?
Could be.
I think you're missing something major in his career splits. Beltre has posted lopsided LH/RH splits in 3 of his 4 seasons with the Mariners, what keeps his career splits close is the monster season he had with the Dodgers in 2004 (1.063 OPS vs. RHPs, .858 OPS vs. LHPs). One massive outlier season skews the perception of what he's been the past four seasons.
Also, I think it should be noted that Paul DePodesta was perfectly content to let Beltre walk after that monster season. The scuttlebutt was Beltre was considered a bit of a Milo.
Yet, this is probably a moot discussion and, unless the Mariners are planning a massive rebuilding project, they'll probably keep Beltre in the hopes he has a monster contract-push season. Zduriencik can keep him to see if the club makes a run next season and, if it doesn't, Beltre may well be worth more in trade next summer (provided he's got some spiffy numbers).
Last edited by M2; 11-19-2008 at 01:41 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
I was just throwing it out there, not saying I would have done it, but Burton likely would have netted us a lead-off switch hitter who plays great defense....so I think it's a pretty fair question.
For Love of the Game
"If you aren't first; you're last"
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
But even if he did have a dramatic platoon split, he pretty consistently OPS's .780 against them (righties). I don't see it as a problem. "05 was a lost year and basically his '08 was driven by BABIP. He's going to make less contact against righties no doubt but I don't see them as an achilles heel.
I wish I knew what Zduriencikis planning to do.
Last edited by jojo; 11-19-2008 at 01:48 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
You can tell baseball's entered a brave, new world when we're questioning whether a team should trade a middle reliever for an everday CF.
While I'd have probably made that deal (I'm old school on these matters), it is a legitimate question that never would have been asked prior to this decade.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
When two of your last four seasons are .688 and .704, I don't think you get to claim that's consistency. It should also be noted that he fell in the .703-.713 range from 2001-03.
We can make excuses for youth, lost seasons and buzzard's luck, but when the excuses are mounting higher than the supposed norms, I think we ought to recognize that we're talking about a volatile player. That can be good. It allows for upside and that's what you'd be gambling on with him in the last of a contract. Though, like I said, I expect the Mariners to be the one that takes that gamble unless someone makes them an offer they can't refuse.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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