Simple question...what are the odds that the Reds will be in contention for a playoff berth at the trading deadline next year. The answer to that question will help guide the aggressiveness of the Reds' in Free Agency/Trades this offseason.
When answering, be intellectually honest. Don't spout out "zero" or "one-hundred percent".
I'd put the Reds chances of being competitive at 25 percent. I'd also put the Reds chances of being last in the Central at 25 percent...the season is really going to hinge on the progression of the youngsters.
Of course moves in the off-season will change the odds...but right now, if it was your paycheck riding on the odds of how correct your guess was...what do you think.