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Thread: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

  1. #16
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Todd Frazier. Don't really see position, speed or exceptional power. I see a major-leaguer, I suppose, but not the 1 or 2 guy in the system.
    I'd argue he does, in fact, have exceptional power. He did just get done slugging a ridiculous .547 (#1 in the HWL) in a notorious pitcher's park/league. For his career outside of winter leagues, he's slugged .503 over 672 ABs. Again, those numbers are in pitcher's leagues (MWL and FSL). I expect him to take off in Carolina.
    Last edited by Screwball; 12-01-2008 at 03:45 AM.

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  3. #17
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Im astonished at this thread, was wondering this camisadelgolf, who other than Alonso is a legit prospect in the Reds organization since you basically bashed just about every Red in the organization? Does our organization suck that bad?

  4. #18
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Travis Wood was hurt most of the year and is still really young

    So give him a break


    Philippe Valiquette is younger than Wood and was drafted a full year before he was

    Not sure if you know this but he was drafted at age 17 and played in Dayton at age 18 year old so I think he still has more than enough time to prove himself

  5. #19
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He is Chris Dickerson but younger, strikes out quite a bit less and has actually improved his strikeout rate at each level unlike Dickerson, and prior to Dickerson's age 26 season in AAA, had a .415 to .402 career SLG% edge on Dickerson too.

    So really, he is Chris Dickerson with more contact, better OB skills and similar power but more power potential to go with better defense and he is 2 years younger.
    I have no words.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #20
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'd argue he does, in fact, have exceptional power. He did just get done slugging a ridiculous .547 (#1 in the HWL) in a notorious pitcher's park/league. For his career outside of winter leagues, he's slugged .503 over 672 ABs. Again, those numbers are in pitcher's leagues (MWL and FSL). I expect him to take off in Carolina.
    Perhaps. You make a nice point. If I might quibble, isn't the Midwest a hitters league (could be wrong)?

    And still, I might reserve the description of "exceptional power" for the likes of Francisco and Soto. In Sarasota, Francisco hit more HR/AB while a year younger than Frazier, and in Dayton he led the league in HR (if I'm not mistaken). Soto has a .522 career (albeit brief career) slugging pct at the age of 19 (three years younger than Frazier).

    Maybe I'm splitting hairs. Anyway, I suppose I can see Frazier with Votto-type power, which would play well in GABP.

  7. #21
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I have no words.
    New Stubbs fun fact - his OPS+ in the AFL was 53.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #22
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    New Stubbs fun fact - his OPS+ in the AFL was 53.
    And what does pointing that out accomplish? Are you trying to imply that he's more of a .636 OPSer than a .782 OPSer?

    The lowest OPS he's ever had was .768, and that was when he was in Billings a couple years ago. If you want to suggest that his 85 at-bats in the AFL mean something, we can do that. We'll go ahead and play the small sample size game.

    He had a .834 OPS in 75 at-bats in AAA. He had a .802 OPS in 92 at-bats at AA. In 109 at-bats in August, he had a .861 OPS. In July, he had a .855 OPS over 82 at-bats. In April, he had a .944 OPS over 95 at-bats. In his 95 at-bats as a number two hitter, he has a .886 OPS.

    Drew Stubbs is a baseball player. Sometimes he struggles, and sometimes he thrives. He struggled in the AFL, but overall, he had a relatively successful season. I just don't understand why someone would think such a small sample size could have a meaning as big as you imply.

  9. #23
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    And what does pointing that out accomplish? Are you trying to imply that he's more of a .636 OPSer than a .782 OPSer?
    Umm, what the thread titled? It seemed to fit into the theme.

    Plus, TRF has made no secret of his distaste for Stubbs' game and I thought he'd get a kick out of that number.

    For my part, all his AFL performance is reinforce my longstanding take on the guy - that he's mercurial and that his downs likely will overwhelm his ups as he plays at higher levels. BA's top 10 AFL prospects (and I assume top 10 HWB) prospects will be out soon. Should be interesting to see where/if Stubbs, Alonso and Frazier get listed.

    If Stubbs doesn't make the AFL top 10 (and I think it's fair to say he'd be a surprise inclusion given some of the names that played in that league this season), you actually might be able to make the case that he's underrated.
    Last edited by M2; 12-01-2008 at 12:36 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #24
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    I'd go with Stubbs. A good defensive outfielder with speed and on-base skills are a plus thing to have at the major league level but he hasn't shown a whole lot to prove to me that he can duplicate his minor league numbers in the majors. His less than impressive numbers from rookie through A-ball leave me scratching my head as to why some people are so willing to pronounce him the supperior to Henry and Heisey. Yes he got hot in limited action in the higher minors but he then went out and got owned in the AFL.

    I think too much is being made of those at-bats because he goes through these hot and cold streaks on an annual basis. One plus about Stubbs has been that his final numbers have at least stayed pretty consistent which gives some hope for the future. But that hole that seems to come and go with his swing will more than likely be ate alive at the majors which gives me concern about his OBP skills going forward. Defense alone doesn't play in CF, you can find plenty of Darren Lewis's and Corey Patterson's who can run it down in CF but arent consistent enough with the bat to be above-average. My prediction for Stubbs is that he will be a headache for reds fans before the team finally sells him for peanuts, I also envision that he could possibly vindicate his supporters sometime later in his career, (27-30) where he starts to resemble Mike Cameron, but is that really worth all the hype and time?

  11. #25
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    My biggest problem with Stubbs is sample size. He stunk in the AFL, so it's the sample size that is the problem. He did well at AAA, but the sample is discounted because he did well. But if you look at his largest sample this year, A+ he was OWNED after a torrid start.. In fact, his decline started 2.5 weeks into the 2008 season. Right at 200 AB's of sub 66.0 OPS ball. FSL or not, that flat sucks. And it goes to pattern.

    Hot start followed by a big dropoff. The league adjusts to him pretty quick, but what we HAVEN'T seen is whether he can adjust back.

    Let me clear when I state it isn't that I don't believe he can, just that he hasn't done it. He certainly didn't in the FSL. He MAY have started to in AA, or it may have been a good week. AAA is just too small a sample.

    I'm all for promoting guys aggressively when they tear a league up. somebody wake me when Stubbs does that.

    oh and M2.. that's pretty funny. I think we should have a "fun facts" thread about all the Red's prospects. keeps 'em human.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #26
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    And here we go. Over/under of this turning into a six page thread? I'll take the over.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #27
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Just for the record, here's Stubbs' 2008 season, AFL included:

    .265/.355/.404, 555 AB, 95 runs, 39 D, 7 T, 8 HR, 75 RBI, 39-49 SB, 78 BB, 152 K
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #28
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    I think Francisco is a pretty good choice for this thread.

  15. #29
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    And here we go. Over/under of this turning into a six page thread? I'll take the over.
    Nah, I'm done. doug and I have hashed this out too much. only time will tell now. Actually I really hope I'm wrong.

    But I think I am finally done on the Stubbs topic.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The 'What's All the Hype' pick

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I have no words.
    Of course you don't because you saw that I was absolutely correct with everything that I stated there.


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