If Florida beats Alabama next weekend, then Alabama will be out. But the more I look at it, the more I'm not necessarily sure that a win by Florida will automatically put them in. They are lagging considerably in the computer rankings as follows:
4) Texas Tech
In fact, Texas has Florida beat in every individual computer ranking too.
Some things to think about:
1) If Oklahoma and Florida both win, would human voters jump Florida all the way to #1 ahead of Oklahoma? Florida would be looking for those valuable points.
2) How far would voters be willing to drop Texas to ensure Florida gets in? It's apparent that this week voters gave more points to Texas than they did last week. Would the opposite then happen next week with Texas being idle?
3) Florida needs a bunch of help in the computer rankings. Beating Alabama will obviously provide a massive boost, but would it be enough of a boost on its own footing? They're currently well behind Texas in the computer rankings.
4) Florida's strength of schedule in the computer rankings will obviously spike up, but outside of Alabama, they might not get any help at all. The rest of the SEC is finished. Florida's key non-conference wins were Florida State, Miami (FL), and Hawaii. Florida State and Miami (FL) are also done. Meanwhile Hawaii hosts UC. If UC wins, then Florida's win over Hawaii loses some luster in the computer polls.
5) Texas' strength of schedule likely isn't changing. They beat both Oklahoma and Missouri. The rest of the Big 12 is finished. Their best non-conference win was probably Rice, and Rice's season is finished. However, Rice did lose to Tulsa, and Tulsa is playing East Carolina next week for the Conference USA championship. A win by Tulsa and Rice probably gets a slight boost in the computer rankings, which would then give Texas a very slight boost in their schedule. Additionally, a Cincinnati victory over Hawaii boosts Cincinnati up slightly in the computer polls, which then gives a bit of help to Oklahoma and the rest of the Big 12.
Now obviously we can stretch out the "Team A played Team B who played Team C who played Team D" wherever we want, and we're talking about fractions of points in the computer rankings (if that), but I have to think those fractions do exist. And since the computer polls are where Florida needs to make the biggest gains, those strength of schedule idiosynchroses become slightly relevant.
This situation would also ripple throughout the rest of the BCS too rather than just shuffling up the national title game and the other BCS bowls. If Oklahoma and Texas play in the national title game, then that opens up the door for Texas Tech to grab an at-large spot. And I'd have to think if Texas Tech is available as an at-large, then they're BCS bound over Ohio State and Boise State.
Just something to chew on ...