Raw Talent

[RedEye]

This is very confusing. Sorry if I screwed something up.

[Mario-Rijo]

This is very confusing. Sorry if I screwed something up.

What's confusing? I realize a I wrote a lot and I'm not always the best communicator on here, so i'll try to re-word it. On this particular poll you are voting for the 15 most talented players in the minors. Talent is a god-given ability, something you either have or don't and if you don't you cannot get. Speed, Arm Strength, Power, Agility etc.

[mace]

1. Soto
2. Stubbs
3. Y. Rodriguez
4. Francisco
5. Bailey
6. Lotzkar
7. Alonso
8. Duran
9. Cozart
10. Stewart
11. Dickerson
12. Frazier
13. Valaika
14. Sulbaran
15. Roenicke

[RedlegJake]

Since its strictly about tools alone my list may be controversial

1. Y. Rodriguez - Advertised like a Ferrari, hope he's not a Gremlin
2. Stubbs - Off the chart tools, its his baseball skills that need refining
3. Duran - another hyped hope but supposed to have all around everything
4. Dickerson - like Stubbs he has all the tools, all of them - its skills that hurt
5. Bailey - his arm is gold its the next three polls where he gets lost
6. Roenicke - just pure power arm
7. Soto - IMO, his pure physical talent is more in the middle of this list
8. Lotzkar - just as a pure arm this kid is up there
9. Stewart - solid arm
10. Oliveras - pulled a surprise but this is just about raw tools? Meet this kid
11. Cozart - agile, good tools thin on the power but athletic
12. Frazier - nothing underwhelming toolwise nothing overwhelms you, balanced
13. Francisco - raw power #1 arm also but athleticism is suspect going forward
14. Alonso - more polish and makeup than tools just good enough to make the cut here
15. Watson/Ravin - split here but I'll go with Watson. Power arms -Watson has chance

[RED VAN HOT]

Many players put up numbers in college that dwarf those, and in premiere conferences.

I looked at the players in our newly elected top 20 who played in college. I compared their three year college averages with those of Buchholz (.361/.422/.641/1064). Only two met or exceeded his numbers. Frazier (.346/.455/.619/1074) put up about the same line, but went on to hit lower at Billings. Alonso (.347/.465/.658/1133) exceeded Buchholz's numbers. Does that qualify as dwarfing? Two differences stand out. Frazier and Alonso played in major conferences and had strong senior years. Had Buchholz put up a line of .300/.350/.450/800 at Billings I would have concluded that the level of competition had caught up to him. Because he hit .396 and OPS'd 1075, however, I am not convinced that he cannot become a consistent .300 hitter, with some pop, at a skill position at the ML level. That's my reasoning and I'm sticking to it. Barring an injury plagued season, I think we will find out next year.

[dougdirt]

I looked at the players in our newly elected top 20 who played in college. I compared their three year college averages with those of Buchholz (.361/.422/.641/1064). Only two met or exceeded his numbers. Frazier (.346/.455/.619/1074) put up about the same line, but went on to hit lower at Billings. Alonso (.347/.465/.658/1133) exceeded Buchholz's numbers. Does that qualify as dwarfing? Two differences stand out. Frazier and Alonso played in major conferences and had strong senior years. Had Buchholz put up a line of .300/.350/.450/800 at Billings I would have concluded that the level of competition had caught up to him. Because he hit .396 and OPS'd 1075, however, I am not convinced that he cannot become a consistent .300 hitter, with some pop, at a skill position at the ML level. That's my reasoning and I'm sticking to it. Barring an injury plagued season, I think we will find out next year.

Buchholz played in a non premiere college conference. He was also a 6th round draft pick. While he may wind up being a good pick, he simply isn't the 4th most talented player in our system and probably isn't among the 4 most talented players we drafted this season.

[RedlegJake]

Buchholz played in a non premiere college conference. He was also a 6th round draft pick. While he may wind up being a good pick, he simply isn't the 4th most talented player in our system and probably isn't among the 4 most talented players we drafted this season.

I agree. Raw talent alone isn't Alex's strong suit. He has some polish, and an age advantage both of which were a big help at Billings. That's why next summer's showing is so crucial to see if he can keep his footing as he plays more advanced players and more guys his age. I'm not knocking his physical tools - they are okay not exceptional. If he succeeds it will be more in the line of excellent baseball skills - pitch recognition, discipline, contact, etc. He can do that and become very good but there will always guys with a lot more pure physical ability. I do think his pick at #6 was a very very good one.

[paintmered]

***Attention, before you vote the 2nd "Dickerson" is out of order alphabetically, that is supposed to be Carlos Fisher*** So a vote for that Dickerson is a vote for Fisher, unless otherwise noted in your post.

Fixed.

[RED VAN HOT]

I agree. Raw talent alone isn't Alex's strong suit. He has some polish, and an age advantage both of which were a big help at Billings. That's why next summer's showing is so crucial to see if he can keep his footing as he plays more advanced players and more guys his age. I'm not knocking his physical tools - they are okay not exceptional. If he succeeds it will be more in the line of excellent baseball skills - pitch recognition, discipline, contact, etc. He can do that and become very good but there will always guys with a lot more pure physical ability. I do think his pick at #6 was a very very good one.

I agree to some extent. I have no evidence that he will be anything more than an average fielder. That does limit his upside. On the other hand, hitting a baseball squarely must to some extent be a God given talent. Otherwise, all the athletic toolsy players would learn to do it. I guess there is a little Billy Beane in my picks. BTW, at Billings he was younger than 26 of the 36 listed on the roster. At any rate, I don't want to blunder into the roll of being a Buchholz defender. My first prospect vote for him was at #21.

[RedlegJake]

I agree to some extent. I have no evidence that he will be anything more than an average fielder. That does limit his upside. On the other hand, hitting a baseball squarely must to some extent be a God given talent. Otherwise, all the athletic toolsy players would learn to do it. I guess there is a little Billy Beane in my picks. BTW, at Billings he was younger than 26 of the 36 listed on the roster. At any rate, I don't want to blunder into the roll of being a Buchholz defender. My first prospect vote for him was at #21.

Yeah hitting to a large extent probably is a god given talent. It's an interesting argument that would make a thread in itself but basically some guys just seem to have a knack for making contact, some don't. I'm not entirely sure it can be totally learned or more guys would eventually learn. Same with discipline and strike recognition. Some guys pick it up right off, others struggle for a long time and gradually improve, some never get it. Assuming that most guys are really trying to learn and get better it seems there must be some correlation between hand-eye and total coordination, maybe speed of neurology or something that's innate. It's not a "tool", though in the sense normally thought of like strength of arm, raw power, foot speed, quickness, leaping ability etc.

[RED VAN HOT]

I would appreciate it if you gave me your top 15 as it will make it easier. It's not a list of who fits the mold and who doesn't but it's to get an idea of who each person thinks is our most talented 15 players. So that we can ultimately come to a conclusion of who the consensus top 15 is.

OK. Here is the rest of my list of raw talent players.

5. Alonso - Somewhere between Casey and Pujols
6. Francisco
7. Frazier
8. Soto
9. Cozart - His power numbers provide hope he is not on the Janish path.
10. Watson - High upside/High bust potential
11. Mesoraco
12. Stewart - Has he shown the plus plus slider BA said he has?
13. Lotzkar - Slow progression please
14. Sulbaran - Purely on the basis of the things we all have read
15. Misael DeJesus - A Billy Beane pick. Stats indicate a strong arm

There is no doubt that Bailey has God given talents, and he is still young. His loss of velocity, however, raises doubts for me. If Roenicke has the sharp breaking slider BA describe in the 2006 draft, then he deserves to be on the list.

[Mario-Rijo]

Fixed.

Thanks paint.

[Mario-Rijo]

Yeah hitting to a large extent probably is a god given talent. It's an interesting argument that would make a thread in itself but basically some guys just seem to have a knack for making contact, some don't. I'm not entirely sure it can be totally learned or more guys would eventually learn. Same with discipline and strike recognition. Some guys pick it up right off, others struggle for a long time and gradually improve, some never get it. Assuming that most guys are really trying to learn and get better it seems there must be some correlation between hand-eye and total coordination, maybe speed of neurology or something that's innate. It's not a "tool", though in the sense normally thought of like strength of arm, raw power, foot speed, quickness, leaping ability etc.

Good post. And on the last part I do happen to think of it as a tool myself at least to some extent. So I certainly used it as a deciding factor in who to include and not in my rankings. But I happen to think that their are easily more overall talented types than Bucholz.

[camisadelgolf]

I left off Bailey because he's not a rookie, but I would have voted him otherwise. I apologize for skewing the data.

The four people I voted for who weren't on the list were:
B.J. Szymanski
Justin Reed
Josh Ravin
Ismael Guillon

[Mario-Rijo]

Since its strictly about tools alone my list may be controversial

1. Y. Rodriguez - Advertised like a Ferrari, hope he's not a Gremlin
2. Stubbs - Off the chart tools, its his baseball skills that need refining
3. Duran - another hyped hope but supposed to have all around everything
4. Dickerson - like Stubbs he has all the tools, all of them - its skills that hurt
5. Bailey - his arm is gold its the next three polls where he gets lost
6. Roenicke - just pure power arm
7. Soto - IMO, his pure physical talent is more in the middle of this list
8. Lotzkar - just as a pure arm this kid is up there
9. Stewart - solid arm
10. Oliveras - pulled a surprise but this is just about raw tools? Meet this kid
11. Cozart - agile, good tools thin on the power but athletic
12. Frazier - nothing underwhelming toolwise nothing overwhelms you, balanced
13. Francisco - raw power #1 arm also but athleticism is suspect going forward
14. Alonso - more polish and makeup than tools just good enough to make the cut here
15. Watson/Ravin - split here but I'll go with Watson. Power arms -Watson has chance

Nice list and you get the idea very well. Oliveras is a guy I admittedly don't know a whole lot about yet, for whatever reason I have missed much conversation on him. I guess a few of the Billings guys escaped my focus but arguably that is where a lot of the toolsier types are. Sappelt, Puckett, Means etc.