New GM's embrace Sabermetrics

[Mario-Rijo]

Picked this up from ESPN.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...e=olney_buster

New GMs turning to sabermetrics

Friday, December 5, 2008


Posted by Buster Olney

Casey Stengel angered some of his players because he chose to platoon them, based on the premise that it's easier for a left-handed hitter to get a better swing against a right-handed pitcher, and for a right-handed hitter to swing more effectively against a lefty. This was relatively radical thinking at the time, and later so was Earl Weaver's preference to eschew the bunt and play for big innings.

Then Bill James lifted the science of statistical research to another level, and more and more it is commonplace for teams to equip themselves with analysts. The two general managers most recently hired are taking steps to arm themselves with more sabermetric information.

Around the majors with Buster Olney
Jack Zduriencik, the Mariners' new GM, has formed what he referred to on Thursday as his research department, led by Tony Blengino, who followed Zduriencik from Milwaukee to Seattle.

Earlier this decade, Zduriencik read a book written by Blengino, called "Future Stars," and found the information compelling. "I liked the thoughts and theories," said Zduriencik. He hired Blengino as an area scout for the Brewers. In time, Blengino ascended, and now he will oversee a three-man staff that will develop and analyze statistics, as part of the Mariners' player evaluation process.

Pat Gillick used statistics as one tool, one part of the evaluation of players, while maintaining a strong belief in the core value of having a staff of scouts adept at seeing strengths and weaknesses in players, regardless of their numbers, and he never formally embraced the use of sabermetrics the way the Red Sox have. But Ruben Amaro Jr., who replaced Gillick as the Phillies' GM after the World Series, said on Thursday evening that he is thinking about hiring someone for statistical analysis, on the Phillies' players and on opposing players.

"It would give us another piece of information to use," said Amaro. "Frankly, it would not be an end-all, just another piece of information to consider."

If Amaro makes this move, that person may also be used for contract analysis, as well.

The Phillies' new leadership team has gathered, writes David Murphy. http://www.philly.com/dailynews/spor...m_gathers.html

[Cooper]

Sounds like hiring a sabermetric stat person is the current CYA thing that GM's are now doing to avoid the appearance of not having all your bases covered. Kind of like the Bengals do with scouting-you know the drill- they have scouts, but they don't really perform the duties of a real scout...but Mike Brown gets to lisp that they "have that area of responsibility covered."

Now even the GM's that don't really believe in sabermetrics have to hire at least 1 person so they can say "we have that area of responsibilty covered." Any GM worth his salt has to have a stat guy. We've come a long way baby.

[WMR]

Yeah, I think what we're seeing is a far cry from widespread enthusiastic acceptance of a sabremetric approach to constructing a baseball team... Describing it as a CYA tactic for many new "adoptees" is very astute.

[westofyou]

All the clubs have stats guys, I guess Buster is just figuring this out.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1116

Defense

by Will Carroll

There’s a lot of discussion about defense and defensive statistics coming into vogue, especially with Peter Gammons stating that teams are realizing that the negatives of defense take away from even big positives on offense. Manny Ramirez, he’s looking at you. Adam Dunn? You too.

But while people are crowing about Zone Rating or even Dave Pinto’s Probabilistic Model, they’re missing something. If you think teams don’t read the studies and stats out here, you’re wrong. They’ve done that for years. What most people don’t realize is that while there’s some great minds writing about baseball, there’s some great minds inside the game too. There are the names you know — Eddie Epstein, Ben Baumer, Keith Woolner — and more names that you don’t.

There have been occasions where I’ve been privy to some of that work that’s going on in front offices and it simply blows away things you’d call the state of the art in sabermetrics. Not a little ahead — a lot. Some of it leaks out, some doesn’t. Some is absolutely horrible too, while some is ignored. Just don’t think that teams are using the same things you are. Anyone that thinks that, isn’t thinking.

[pahster]

I imagine most teams employ people with significantly stronger methodological backgrounds than most of the people who work for BP et al.

[RedsManRick]

I think we should be very careful in assuming that simply because teams have certain people employed that the information and analysis is heeded by those with the power to make decisions.

Almost every large company has analysts. Only a select few have management that understand how to use analytical information well. It's like that in every industry, and baseball, I'm sure, is no exception.

[pahster]

I think we should be very careful in assuming that simply because teams have certain people employed that the information and analysis is heeded by those with the power to make decisions.

Almost every large company has analysts. Only a select few have management that understand how to use analytical information well. It's like that in every industry, and baseball, I'm sure, is no exception.

I think this is painfully obvious in the case of certain teams such as San Francisco.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think this is painfully obvious in the case of certain teams such as San Francisco.

Very true.

[Cooper]

People are crowing about Zone Rating? Good gosh -that's what we crowed aout circa 1998, but I doubt anyone is pumping up that stat now. Heck, Pinto's stuff is just more of the same ---he does give good effort.

Here's the difference between lay man sabermetrics and the stuff the teams own and produce .......MONEY. They can set up all kinds of data collection points. That's a huge advantage. Data collection has been an advantage for the teams since the game was created. If the average sabermetric person had a system of collecting data there would be huge gains made....but the teams wouldn't own the stuff, thus aking away an advantage.

I still think 5 guys from Redszone could do a better job than the previous FO (of course i get to say who they are).

[vaticanplum]

Casey Stengel angered some of his players because he chose to platoon them, based on the premise that it's easier for a left-handed hitter to get a better swing against a right-handed pitcher, and for a right-handed hitter to swing more effectively against a lefty. This was relatively radical thinking at the time, and later so was Earl Weaver's preference to eschew the bunt and play for big innings.

I grew up under the impression that left-righty hitting platoons are the most overrated strategy in baseball. I think it's one of those things I heard very young that just stuck.

Now I take it for granted that it is important...but I don't really have a good grasp on HOW important, where it works, where it doesn't, how much of a crapshoot it is given a pitcher's (or hitter's) individual style, etc. I would love to hear people's detailed thoughts about this. If anyone can point me to a really good statistical breakdown, that'd be great too. I've looked in the past, but it's such a given at this point in time, and it's been so accepted and buried by other newer statistical measures, that I've found such breakdowns harder to come by than I might expect.

[westofyou]

I grew up under the impression that left-righty hitting platoons are the most overrated strategy in baseball. I think it's one of those things I heard very young that just stuck.

Now I take it for granted that it is important...but I don't really have a good grasp on HOW important, where it works, where it doesn't, how much of a crapshoot it is given a pitcher's (or hitter's) individual style, etc. I would love to hear people's detailed thoughts about this. If anyone can point me to a really good statistical breakdown, that'd be great too. I've looked in the past, but it's such a given at this point in time, and it's been so accepted and buried by other newer statistical measures, that I've found such breakdowns harder to come by than I might expect.

Stengal was platooned by McGraw (and platooning was very in vogue in the late teens) his 1922 splits had to be placed in his mind forever, 1 start against a LH and only 3 other ab's all season against a southpaw, but three hits too so perhaps they were LH's who could not get LH's out very well?

         AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF  XI ROE GDP  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG
vs RHP  241  47  88   7  10   7  48  21   1i 16   9   1   2i  0i  4i  3i  5   2  .365  .432  .564
vs LHP    6   0   3   0   0   0   0   0   0i  0   0   0   0i  0i  0i  0i  0   0  .500  .500  .500
vs LHS    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0i  1   0   0   0i  0i  0i  0i  0   0  .333  .333  .667

Stengal used the platoon as a science in the 50's, his use of it not only got the best match ups but enabled GM George Weiss to use the fact that they were not full time players against the players being platooned come contract time (and some wonder why the players have agents and union now) Earl Weaver used the platoon like science as well with his corner outfielders.

Play one season of strat-o-matic and you'll see how platoon advantages can be applied and used correctly and incorrectly.

[*BaseClogger*]

I grew up under the impression that left-righty hitting platoons are the most overrated strategy in baseball. I think it's one of those things I heard very young that just stuck.

Now I take it for granted that it is important...but I don't really have a good grasp on HOW important, where it works, where it doesn't, how much of a crapshoot it is given a pitcher's (or hitter's) individual style, etc. I would love to hear people's detailed thoughts about this. If anyone can point me to a really good statistical breakdown, that'd be great too. I've looked in the past, but it's such a given at this point in time, and it's been so accepted and buried by other newer statistical measures, that I've found such breakdowns harder to come by than I might expect.

There are several pages devoted to the platoon topic in The Book by Tom Tango...

[jojo]

Both Rich Aurilia and Scott Hatteberg want everyone to know that platoons never work out.