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Thread: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

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    Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Love the walks, strong power, but sharp platoon split keeps him from higher grade at this time.
    2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: I like him. A nice solid hitter, maybe not a star, but should be productive. Only question is defense.

    3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: I like him, too. Looks like a fine hitter, even without strong plate discipline. Probably more a 2B than SS.

    4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Very impressed with his long-term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn’t bad and he’s very young.

    5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Where did the power go? Other skills are coming along nicely.

    6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: Very impressive arm, could be a closer perhaps.

    7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Strong arm, command issues, could move fast in the pen. Maybe a C+?

    8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Might downgrade to C+. Very young, tons of potential, command and injury issues. This is one of my “intuition guys” though.

    9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: He’s a solid pitcher if he can stay healthy, a big if. I’ve liked him since I shadow-drafted him out of high school.

    10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year.

    11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 8 depending on what you want to emphasize. Small right-hander with a strong arm, took step forward in ’08.

    12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Tremendous tools. He’s more a .250 hitter than a .300 guy, but with speed, power, and defense. Older prospect, which limits his grade.

    13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy I have liked for awhile, could be a decent strike-throwing fourth starter.

    14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Like the speed, gets on base, could be solid fourth outfielder.

    15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: A bit less speed than Heisey, but with more pop.

    16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Kills right-handers, could be a solid platoon bat.

    17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect acquired from Arizona, could surprise now that he’s further away from Tommy John.

    18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: One of several guys who could slot in nicely as a middle reliever.

    19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: Considered C+, another potential relief arm with ability.

    20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

    21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/...0-pro#comments

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    For the sake of comparison...

    Redszone's Top Prospects

    Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
    Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
    Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
    Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
    Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
    Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
    Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
    Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
    Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
    Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
    Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
    Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
    Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
    Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
    Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
    Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
    Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart
    Prospect #18 - Matt Maloney
    Prospect #19 - Carlos Fisher
    Prospect #20 - Chris Heisey
    Prospect #21 - Ryan Hanigan

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Looks like the major differences are with Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez, which I agree with Sickels on. I think it's way too early to call someone like Duran a #9 prospect at this point.

    Maybe even bigger is that Mesoraco didn't even make his list while RZ has him at #11. I still think that's too high, but I think he would crack my own top 20, though it would be at the bottom.

    There is a big difference in opinion on Roenicke too. Sickels thinks a lot of higher of him, but I agree with RZ on this one. I'm not as overwhelmed.

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

    The Reds graduated a lot of talent last year, and while things have thinned at the top, there is more depth in this system than is commonly realized. They have an interesting mix of polished college-type bats (Alonso, Frazier, Valaika), along with toolsy Latin American guys at the lower levels. While they could use some more impact arms, they have several pitchers who look like they will provide bullpen depth down the line. There’s quite a bit of C+ type talent here and guys who could be good role players.

    Ranking players like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran is difficult. I have usually not included many guys like that in the book until they hit North America, but will stick more in this year. I know what the scouting reports say on these players, and you will no doubt see them ranked much higher in other sources. But so many of the uber-tools guys fail completely that I just can’t go higher on these grades until we get something objective to examine. Even North American high school kids are easier to grade since scouts can often see them in showcase competition and get better reads on their ability.

    Remember what Grade C means: “These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars.”

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Sean Henry is above Danny Dorn. For the sake of sanity, I won't comment any further about how to dumb I think this list is.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Sean Henry is above Danny Dorn. For the sake of sanity, I won't comment any further about how to dumb I think this list is.
    I think Dorn is top 10 myself, but Henry is underrated. Probably because the Reds didn't put him on the 40 man. He's got some power, speed, is a good corner defender, he's in line for AAA and just turned 23 in August.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Dorn is top 10 myself, but Henry is underrated. Probably because the Reds didn't put him on the 40 man. He's got some power, speed, is a good corner defender, he's in line for AAA and just turned 23 in August.
    If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.
    I think he can be a RH 4th OF or platoon player. Actually, he and Dorn himself might make a decent platoon with Henry coming in for defense when Dorn starts (or hitting when some team throws the Lefty reliever at him later in the game).

    I don't picture him as a starter, but beyond Alonso, Soto and maybe Frazier and Cozart, I don't think any of the Reds position prospects at the levels high enough to matter at this point are starting caliber players. Maybe Stubbs and Francisco if he learns to not swing at everything. Even Dickerson and Dorn are platoon players and Hanigan definitely needs somebody to share the job with. Their are a lot of useful guys, but like Sickels says, the order is probably interchangeable depending on what you looking for.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    I don't really have a problem with Sickels thinking Dorn is the #16 guy, as long as he didn't have Henry in front of him. While it appears Dorn is a platoon guy now, he has something going for him.... He doesn't really struggle with discipline against lefties at all.
    Code:
    Player   Split    PA   K   BB     K%     B%
    Dorn      vsL     94   19  11    20.2   11.7
    Dorn      vsR    294   65  31    22.1   10.5
    The only real difference is the power he hits for against righties, which leads to a higher BABIP (because of the HR's), which in turn leads to the higher average and OBP. If he had just 2 more hits versus lefties last year, even if they were singles (and for the record that would have his BABIP against lefties at .305), it would have raised his line against lefties to .260/.351/.395. Basically it would turn him into a solid hitter against lefties to bat down in the lineup who absolutely kills righties. Simply put, Dorn isn't a little bloop hit here or there every 2 months versus lefties away from being a guy who could start full time with 30 HR a year potential.

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.
    Because they are not playing him that much in CF and 2B maybe you assume that he can't play there. He has played there, does seem to have the knack & tools to do so but for whatever reason is being overlooked. I kinda expect him to be an Oriole bye next week and we'll probably eventually regret not having him as a solid part of our 25 man roster.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think he can be a RH 4th OF or platoon player. Actually, he and Dorn himself might make a decent platoon with Henry coming in for defense when Dorn starts (or hitting when some team throws the Lefty reliever at him later in the game).

    I don't picture him as a starter, but beyond Alonso, Soto and maybe Frazier and Cozart, I don't think any of the Reds position prospects at the levels high enough to matter at this point are starting caliber players. Maybe Stubbs and Francisco if he learns to not swing at everything. Even Dickerson and Dorn are platoon players and Hanigan definitely needs somebody to share the job with. Their are a lot of useful guys, but like Sickels says, the order is probably interchangeable depending on what you looking for.
    I like the idea of Dorn/Henry platoon, but even in that scenario, Dorn would be the one with the majority of playing time and production.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I like the idea of Dorn/Henry platoon, but even in that scenario, Dorn would be the one with the majority of playing time and production.
    Agree. I have Dorn in the top 10. But Henry at 15 isn't a stretch. I have Henry at 20 and did not rate Duran or Rodriguez.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agree. I have Dorn in the top 10. But Henry at 15 isn't a stretch. I have Henry at 20 and did not rate Duran or Rodriguez.
    That's understandable, but we just grade prospects differently. Henry would miss out on my top-40 prospect list, but I like to value high ceilings. If a guy with a high ceiling fulfills his potential, he can be worth a lot more than 10 Sean Henrys.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That's understandable, but we just grade prospects differently. Henry would miss out on my top-40 prospect list, but I like to value high ceilings. If a guy with a high ceiling fulfills his potential, he can be worth a lot more than 10 Sean Henrys.
    That's probably true. Do the Reds have enough of those to push Henry that far down? I don't think so.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Sickel's Reds Top 20...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    That's probably true. Do the Reds have enough of those to push Henry that far down? I don't think so.
    Yeah, that's very debatable. Personally, I think the Reds do, but some people clearly don't agree with me. However, in no particular order, here is a list of 30+ guys I thought of at the top of my head who I would rank ahead of Henry, though.

    Juan Duran
    Yorman Rodriguez
    Yonder Alfonso
    Drew Stubbs
    Todd Frazier
    Devin Mesoraco
    Nefi Soto
    Kyle Lotzkar
    Daryl Thompson
    Juan Francisco
    Danny Dorn
    Josh Roenicke
    Zach Stewart
    Chris Valaika
    Zack Cozart
    Justin Turner
    J.C. Sulbaran
    Ismael Guillon
    Shea Snowden
    Evan Hildenbrandt
    Travis Wood
    Jeremy Horst
    Alex Buchholz
    Sean Watson
    Justin Reed
    Alex Oliveras
    Ramon Ramirez
    Carlos Fisher
    Brandon Waring
    Dallas Buck
    Dave Sappelt
    Ryan Hanigan
    Matt Maloney
    Pedro Viola
    Chris Heisey


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