Sickel's Reds Top 20...

[laxtonto]

1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Love the walks, strong power, but sharp platoon split keeps him from higher grade at this time.
2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: I like him. A nice solid hitter, maybe not a star, but should be productive. Only question is defense.

3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: I like him, too. Looks like a fine hitter, even without strong plate discipline. Probably more a 2B than SS.

4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Very impressed with his long-term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn’t bad and he’s very young.

5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Where did the power go? Other skills are coming along nicely.

6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: Very impressive arm, could be a closer perhaps.

7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Strong arm, command issues, could move fast in the pen. Maybe a C+?

8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Might downgrade to C+. Very young, tons of potential, command and injury issues. This is one of my “intuition guys” though.

9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: He’s a solid pitcher if he can stay healthy, a big if. I’ve liked him since I shadow-drafted him out of high school.

10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year.

11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 8 depending on what you want to emphasize. Small right-hander with a strong arm, took step forward in ’08.

12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Tremendous tools. He’s more a .250 hitter than a .300 guy, but with speed, power, and defense. Older prospect, which limits his grade.

13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy I have liked for awhile, could be a decent strike-throwing fourth starter.

14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Like the speed, gets on base, could be solid fourth outfielder.

15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: A bit less speed than Heisey, but with more pop.

16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Kills right-handers, could be a solid platoon bat.

17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect acquired from Arizona, could surprise now that he’s further away from Tommy John.

18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: One of several guys who could slot in nicely as a middle reliever.

19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: Considered C+, another potential relief arm with ability.

20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/...0-pro#comments

[fearofpopvol1]

For the sake of comparison...

Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart
Prospect #18 - Matt Maloney
Prospect #19 - Carlos Fisher
Prospect #20 - Chris Heisey
Prospect #21 - Ryan Hanigan

[fearofpopvol1]

Looks like the major differences are with Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez, which I agree with Sickels on. I think it's way too early to call someone like Duran a #9 prospect at this point.

Maybe even bigger is that Mesoraco didn't even make his list while RZ has him at #11. I still think that's too high, but I think he would crack my own top 20, though it would be at the bottom.

There is a big difference in opinion on Roenicke too. Sickels thinks a lot of higher of him, but I agree with RZ on this one. I'm not as overwhelmed.

[OnBaseMachine]

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

The Reds graduated a lot of talent last year, and while things have thinned at the top, there is more depth in this system than is commonly realized. They have an interesting mix of polished college-type bats (Alonso, Frazier, Valaika), along with toolsy Latin American guys at the lower levels. While they could use some more impact arms, they have several pitchers who look like they will provide bullpen depth down the line. There’s quite a bit of C+ type talent here and guys who could be good role players.

Ranking players like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran is difficult. I have usually not included many guys like that in the book until they hit North America, but will stick more in this year. I know what the scouting reports say on these players, and you will no doubt see them ranked much higher in other sources. But so many of the uber-tools guys fail completely that I just can’t go higher on these grades until we get something objective to examine. Even North American high school kids are easier to grade since scouts can often see them in showcase competition and get better reads on their ability.

Remember what Grade C means: “These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars.”

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

[camisadelgolf]

Sean Henry is above Danny Dorn. For the sake of sanity, I won't comment any further about how to dumb I think this list is.

[mth123]

Sean Henry is above Danny Dorn. For the sake of sanity, I won't comment any further about how to dumb I think this list is.

I think Dorn is top 10 myself, but Henry is underrated. Probably because the Reds didn't put him on the 40 man. He's got some power, speed, is a good corner defender, he's in line for AAA and just turned 23 in August.

[camisadelgolf]

I think Dorn is top 10 myself, but Henry is underrated. Probably because the Reds didn't put him on the 40 man. He's got some power, speed, is a good corner defender, he's in line for AAA and just turned 23 in August.

If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.

[mth123]

If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.

I think he can be a RH 4th OF or platoon player. Actually, he and Dorn himself might make a decent platoon with Henry coming in for defense when Dorn starts (or hitting when some team throws the Lefty reliever at him later in the game).

I don't picture him as a starter, but beyond Alonso, Soto and maybe Frazier and Cozart, I don't think any of the Reds position prospects at the levels high enough to matter at this point are starting caliber players. Maybe Stubbs and Francisco if he learns to not swing at everything. Even Dickerson and Dorn are platoon players and Hanigan definitely needs somebody to share the job with. Their are a lot of useful guys, but like Sickels says, the order is probably interchangeable depending on what you looking for.

[dougdirt]

I don't really have a problem with Sickels thinking Dorn is the #16 guy, as long as he didn't have Henry in front of him. While it appears Dorn is a platoon guy now, he has something going for him.... He doesn't really struggle with discipline against lefties at all.

Player   Split    PA   K   BB     K%     B%
Dorn      vsL     94   19  11    20.2   11.7
Dorn      vsR    294   65  31    22.1   10.5

The only real difference is the power he hits for against righties, which leads to a higher BABIP (because of the HR's), which in turn leads to the higher average and OBP. If he had just 2 more hits versus lefties last year, even if they were singles (and for the record that would have his BABIP against lefties at .305), it would have raised his line against lefties to .260/.351/.395. Basically it would turn him into a solid hitter against lefties to bat down in the lineup who absolutely kills righties. Simply put, Dorn isn't a little bloop hit here or there every 2 months versus lefties away from being a guy who could start full time with 30 HR a year potential.

[Mario-Rijo]

If he were a middle infielder or center fielder, he'd be a top prospect. Because he's a corner outfielder, I'm not too high on him at all.

Because they are not playing him that much in CF and 2B maybe you assume that he can't play there. He has played there, does seem to have the knack & tools to do so but for whatever reason is being overlooked. I kinda expect him to be an Oriole bye next week and we'll probably eventually regret not having him as a solid part of our 25 man roster.

[camisadelgolf]

I think he can be a RH 4th OF or platoon player. Actually, he and Dorn himself might make a decent platoon with Henry coming in for defense when Dorn starts (or hitting when some team throws the Lefty reliever at him later in the game).

I don't picture him as a starter, but beyond Alonso, Soto and maybe Frazier and Cozart, I don't think any of the Reds position prospects at the levels high enough to matter at this point are starting caliber players. Maybe Stubbs and Francisco if he learns to not swing at everything. Even Dickerson and Dorn are platoon players and Hanigan definitely needs somebody to share the job with. Their are a lot of useful guys, but like Sickels says, the order is probably interchangeable depending on what you looking for.

I like the idea of Dorn/Henry platoon, but even in that scenario, Dorn would be the one with the majority of playing time and production.

[mth123]

I like the idea of Dorn/Henry platoon, but even in that scenario, Dorn would be the one with the majority of playing time and production.

Agree. I have Dorn in the top 10. But Henry at 15 isn't a stretch. I have Henry at 20 and did not rate Duran or Rodriguez.

[camisadelgolf]

Agree. I have Dorn in the top 10. But Henry at 15 isn't a stretch. I have Henry at 20 and did not rate Duran or Rodriguez.

That's understandable, but we just grade prospects differently. Henry would miss out on my top-40 prospect list, but I like to value high ceilings. If a guy with a high ceiling fulfills his potential, he can be worth a lot more than 10 Sean Henrys.

[mth123]

That's understandable, but we just grade prospects differently. Henry would miss out on my top-40 prospect list, but I like to value high ceilings. If a guy with a high ceiling fulfills his potential, he can be worth a lot more than 10 Sean Henrys.

That's probably true. Do the Reds have enough of those to push Henry that far down? I don't think so.

[camisadelgolf]

That's probably true. Do the Reds have enough of those to push Henry that far down? I don't think so.

Yeah, that's very debatable. Personally, I think the Reds do, but some people clearly don't agree with me. However, in no particular order, here is a list of 30+ guys I thought of at the top of my head who I would rank ahead of Henry, though.

Juan Duran
Yorman Rodriguez
Yonder Alfonso
Drew Stubbs
Todd Frazier
Devin Mesoraco
Nefi Soto
Kyle Lotzkar
Daryl Thompson
Juan Francisco
Danny Dorn
Josh Roenicke
Zach Stewart
Chris Valaika
Zack Cozart
Justin Turner
J.C. Sulbaran
Ismael Guillon
Shea Snowden
Evan Hildenbrandt
Travis Wood
Jeremy Horst
Alex Buchholz
Sean Watson
Justin Reed
Alex Oliveras
Ramon Ramirez
Carlos Fisher
Brandon Waring
Dallas Buck
Dave Sappelt
Ryan Hanigan
Matt Maloney
Pedro Viola
Chris Heisey