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Thread: Dont play poker with David Weathers

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2005

    Re: Dont play poker with David Weathers

    I have no problem with Weathers coming back. He's done a good job the past few years and seems to be good for the clubhouse.

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  3. #17
    Member Emin3mShady07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Lake Orion, MI

    Re: Dont play poker with David Weathers

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    David Weathers is an anomaly. He is an outlier. When it comes to Stormy you can (heretical statement to follow) throw out the stat sheet. According to the stats in Hardball Times his xFIP is 4.61 since joining Cincinnati in 2005. Over those same 298 1/3 IP his ERA is a full run lower at 3.59. In almost 300 IP that amounts to a lot of luck. And let me stress, once again, that is nearly three hundred innings of pitching. Hardly a small sample size. What about inherited runners you say? Adding up all 16 National League teams, using the numbers in Baseball Prospectus, there were 3,714 inherited runners of which 1,120 scored in 2008. In other words 30.2% of inherited NL runners scored in 2008. I would imagine that number stays fairly constant from year to year. How does Stormy do with regards to inherited runners? Here is a chart:

    Year	IR	IS	Pct
    2005	15	2	13.3%
    2006	27	8	29.6%
    2007	19	5	26.3%
    2008	30	6	20.0%
    Total	91	21	23.1%
    In no year has he surpassed that 30.2% 'average'. And for all four years combined he is well under it.

    I understand the importance of a reliever being able to strike batters out. In a perfect world the Reds' roster would be overflowing with such relievers. But this isn't a perfect world. And the value of a David Weathers should not be overlooked nor dismissed because he happens to be that round peg that somehow fits into the square hole.
    I understand what you are saying about weathers, I just don't feel like he is the best way to allocate the scarce spare cash that the reds have this offseason. There are cheaper alternatives that could produce the same results IMO. As for the bolded statement, I am not taking away from his success in the past, I am just saying that eventually the "luck" will run out on weathers if he is the same pitcher next year as he was this year. There is no guarantee either way, but the odds suggest if weathers doesn't make a change his numbers will take a turn for the worse.
    Baseball is not necessarily an obsessive-compulsive disorder, like washing your hands 100 times a day, but it's beginning to seem that way. We're reaching the point where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life. Take your pick. ~Thomas Boswell

    Having a life is overrated.

  4. #18
    Member DannyB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Fort Lauderdale

    Re: Dont play poker with David Weathers

    Weathers is drawing dead.No one else wants him so he had to take the arb offer.

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