Freel traded for Ramon Hernandez

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8356

There was only a single trade made for a second straight day, and it again centered around a catcher as the Orioles shipped Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for utility player Ryan Freel and two minor league infielders, Justin Turner and Brandon Wearing. The Reds had been looking for a veteran catcher to share time with and serve as a mentor to rookie Ryan Hanigan. Hernandez, 32, had a fine first season with the Orioles in 2006 when he had a .281 EqA and 7.6 WARP2. However, those numbers have fallen in both of the last two seasons (.253, 3.2, and .251, 4.0).

The Reds hope that Hernandez is not a player on the decline, but rather someone who will be rejuvenated by switching teams and leagues. "Our scouts did notice that there was probably some level of frustration he was experiencing in Baltimore," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I did research on it with other people who have had him and got great reports, so we do think a change of scenery will help him immensely. We've got a pretty good pitching staff that I think he will develop and work well with while showing renewed energy."

Freel, 32, was limited to 48 games last season by a torn hamstring and had a .246 EqA. Orioles manager Dave Tremblay likes Freel's versatility. "He's like two players in one, because he can play all four infield positions and all three spots in the outfield," Trembley said. "We're more like a National League team than most American League teams. I like to pinch hit and pinch run more than most American League managers, and ability to play so many positions will come in handy."

The trade leaves the Orioles without a catcher on the 40-man roster. Vice president Andy MacPhail made it clear that the deal was made primarily to open a lineup spot for catching prospect Matt Wieters, though the Orioles will look to add a veteran backstop in case their top draft pick from 2007 needs to spend at least the beginning of the season at Triple-A Norfolk.

[jojo]

Wouldn't you have to measure the improvement against other teams' improvements?

Well that's kind of the idea. For instance, I think he upgrades the Reds by maybe a win. I think the Reds need to find 12-15 wins to make the playoffs (or at least to have a real chance to make Cubs fans cry).

What kind of microscope is really needed here? He upgrades the position pretty convincingly without hamstringing the team's attempts to upgrade elsewhere. Unless you want to argue for a complete rebuild -- which I believe you've done before -- I don't see how this kind of roster building can be seriously questioned.

I don't recall being an advocate for a complete rebuild. Concerning this particular deal, I've already indicated that a reasoned argument can be made in support of the trade. The question posed though was essentially "how much impact is the deal likely to have relative to the big picture?".

[M2]

But after the facelift and boob job, you'll be back?

I might settle for tooth brushing and shaven armpits.

[HokieRed]

Doesn't, IMHO, bring them any closer but the trade hasn't done any damage to our longer term hopes--2010 and beyond. That's my prime hope for this trading season, that, unlike his predecessors, Walt doesn't either trade away pieces we will need once our best prospects are on the scene and our best starters have matured enough to constitute an actually condending rotation or enter into ridiculous contracts that make for diminished flexibility. So far he's not done that. Addition of a good RH hitter would make me start to get slightly hopeful, but I just don't see the pitching as being mature enough yet for a real run in 2009. Single realistic acquisition that would give real hope for 2009: Adrian Beltre.

[Always Red]

Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

IMO it improves the catching to league average, which is a start.

There was a great thread here last season about the importance of being at least league average at every position, and how doing that actually results in a winning (ie- NOT average) team.

I'm not excited about Hernandez, but I think it takes the pressure off Hanigan somewhat. If $5 million for LaRue was too much, then $8 million for Hernandez is also too much. Rumor has it that the O's kicked in enough $ to make it an even contract swap for Freel's ridiculous contract.

[*BaseClogger*]

The legacy of poor receivers in Cincy includes Eddie Taubensee (a DH back there), Jason Larue (good arm, but I didn't like anything else about him defensively), Paul Bako (A "defensive specialist" who seemed below average in every way from what I saw) and the worst of the bunch David Ross.

Come on now, mth, I know you really dislike Dave Ross and think very lowly of his defense, but worse receiver than Eddie Taubensee? Are you ignoring there arms, because you brought up arm with Jason LaRue.

The Reds bench and upper minors is filled with guys who the Reds hope can play an adequate 2B (Keppinger, Rosales, Valaika, Richar, Frazier maybe even Wilkin Castillo) but the Reds probably just dealt the only one who we know really can.

Reports say Chris Valaika might stick at shortstop, but he doesn't know 2B? I think Turner will be a fine bench player, cheap and valuable for several years, but he is not a better 2B than Chris Valaika...

[M2]

For instance, I think he upgrades the Reds by maybe a win. I think the Reds need to find 12-15 wins to make the playoffs (or at least to have a real chance to make Cubs fans cry).

I don't think there's any meaningful way to assess the win value of the deal yet given that we don't know who else is joining the team.

If no other changes are made, then, sure, call it a one-win move.

If other things come together, then I'd submit giving the opposition something to worry about at the bottom of the lineup (as opposed to nothing to worry about) could pile up the WPA.

I'm just not sure a linear assessment means anything at this point.

[WMR]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8356

Freel at SS?

[BRM]

Freel at SS?

Yeah, I thought the "all four infield positions" was a bit much. Freel has never played a single game at 1B or SS in the majors.

[corkedbat]

No Rangers starting pitcher was even close to having 200 innings pitched, with Vicente Padilla leading the rotation with 171 frames in 2008, as they went 79-83 and had the worst ERA in the majors with a 5.37 mark. The Rangers' pitching problems go beyond last season however; they've finished in the top half of the 14-team AL in ERA only once in the last 11 seasons, when they ranked fifth in 2004. "With the setup we have in the bullpen, it would be a dream come true if we could get more production out of our starting rotation,

You'd think that they'd have interest in Arroyo, for his 200 innings alone just to take some pressure off the bullpen. The Reds would have to have a line on another consistent starter though.

[camisadelgolf]

All my opinions have probably been expressed by someone at some point in this thread, but here's my two cents anyway:

I like that Ryan Freel won't be running between Jay Bruce and the left fielder, who will probably be an expensive, big-name acquisition. The guy was a one-man wrecking crew and put the rest of the team in danger.

I don't like that the Reds dealt the right-handed platoon partner of Chris Dickerson. The outfield is the weakest part of the 25-man roster. Even if the Reds acquire a great right-handed bat for left field, they'll need someone who can come off the bench and play center. If they choose to carry only four outfielders, you can't let Norris Hopper be the first option off the bench; that's just asking for failure.

I don't care that the Reds traded Brandon Waring. He seems like only a Brandon Larson-type, and the Reds have a lot of third base depth anyway.

I'm going to miss Red Turner. From what I can tell, his ceiling is something similar to Jeff Keppinger's. He might not be a great everyday second baseman, but he's probably going to turn out to be a good utility infielder. The Reds currently have Brandon Phillips, will soon have Chris Valaika, and a little further down the line, they'll have Alex Buchholz, Cody Puckett, and maybe more. I wonder if the Reds would have been better off if they had waited to trade Turner because he will probably increase his value over the next year or two, but other than that, they picked a good position to trade from.

I like that the Reds obtained a catcher of Ramon Hernandez's caliber. First of all, the average catcher OPSes at .713, and Hernandez has been above that for each of the past six seasons. His offensive skills may be declining, but I think that will be compensated a bit by playing at GABP. This also means that Wilkin Castillo can continue to develop at AAA instead of being the backup catcher by default. The Reds should also have Craig Tatum at AAA, so hopefully this will spell the end for my nemesis, Ryan Jorgensen. As an added bonus, Hernandez speaks Spanish, unlike Hanigan, which could come in handy when he's catching the Dominicans. I think that fact is often overlooked.

I like Ramon Hernandez's contract. Basically, he'll cost the Reds $6 million in 2009, and if the Reds want him for 2010, he would cost $7.5 million more. That could really come in handy if he has a great 2009. And if he doesn't set the league on fire, he won't be difficult to get rid of. Some people are acting like it was purely a salary dump, but effectively, it saved the Orioles only $2 million.

All in all, I think it was a fair trade. The Reds may have given up some value, but they got some value in return. Many people don't realize how difficult it is to obtain a decent catcher. Ryan Freel's career may be on its last leg, Brandon Waring probably won't cut it, and Justin Turner just wasn't needed. Hernandez's success in 2009 will probably be largely dependent on the luck of his BABIP, so I'm hoping this is a year that goes well for him. Even if it doesn't, when Hernandez is doing poorly, he's not Paul Bako-bad and is better than a lot of the catchers in the league.

[REDREAD]

Even if he's not 100%, he'll probably run through a fence or into another outfielder and have plenty of downtime to get to 100% while his new war wounds heal.

Hopefully Wayne does not file a grievence against us when Freel goes the DL next year

[REDREAD]

It's too much talent and money to give up for a player that doesn't drive you closer to being really good. He's 33 years old and a decent candidate to be out of the game in 2 years.

The O's won this one for sure.

How can you say this isn't a step forward to making us good?

We had no reliable catcher. We probably just picked one up for an overpaid 5th OF/utility guy that is going to get injured.

The prospects are inconsequential. Look at the odds that either Waring or the other guy will be an average starting position player. It's not a good roll of the dice. Probably 95% of the time, trading marginal prospects for ML talent is a win. It might be more successful than that. Sure, every 5-10 years, someone lets a Bagwell get away, but it is very rare.

There isn't a single move that will suddenly make this franchise very good.
Even if it were possible to add Babe Ruth or Cy Young in his prime, that would not make us very good. Too many holes. Walt just addressed one of those holes for practically no cost at all in trade chips. Maybe the team took on a little salary, but that's ok. Adding 0-3 million to payroll for a legitimate starting catcher is a good value.

Walt is a god for shedding Freel's contract. I thought that would be impossible. Frankly, I find it hillarious that Wayne is once again overvaluing Freel and helping us clean up a mistake that Wayne made.

[REDREAD]

Do you think they can sign Hairston with what they were paying Freel?

Sure. They can get Harriston or someone like him for much less than Freel was due. Freel was due to make something like 4.5 or 5 million. One of the dumbest contracts Wayne handed out.

[Caveat Emperor]

One of the dumbest contracts Wayne handed out.

Jocketty can get in line right behind him if he signs Hairston to anything longer than a 1 year deal.