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"You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
-Beano Cook
I think he fits what they want in a UT player, he can play a little SS and a little CF and hit at the top of the lineup. I like Hairston when he is on and healthy, he plays the game with intelligence and fire and isn't really awful in any one way (sans his arm).
That said I kinda hope they don't get him so it would then force them to get a good SS who can hit at the top of the lineup. Ya know they are hedging their SS & CF bets with Hairston, it's obvious and so is the fact that they want both positions filled.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
How does Camden Yards profile as far as being a Hitter's/Pitcher's park?
His previous two stops (Oakland & San Diego) were both pitcher's parks, IIRC.
Camden usually plays slightly more as a hitters park IIRC but close to nuetral.
Camden
GABPField dimensions Left Field - 333 ft (101.5 m)
Left-Center - 364 ft (110.9 m)
Left-Center (deep) - 410 ft (125 m)
Center Field - 400 ft (121.9 m) (Not posted)
Right-Center - 373 ft (113.7 m)
Right Field - 318 ft (96.9 m)
Hernandez hit chartField dimensions Left Field - 328 ft (100 m)
Left-Center - 379 ft (116 m)
Center Field - 404 ft (123 m)
Right-Center - 370 ft (113 m)
Right Field - 325 ft (99 m)
Backstop - 55 ft (17 m)
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Over the last 5 years ('04-'08), it's kinda been all over the place. It's had overall PF's of 1.077 (7th highest), 0.876 (28th highest), 0.985 (17th highest), 1.109 (6th highest), and 1.051 (10th) from '04-'08 respectively. The last couple years it's given a pretty significant edge to the hitter. Yet when Hernandez had his best year as an Oriole ('06 - 111 OPS+) Camden was giving a slight edge to the pitcher.
Not sure what to make of this, but hopefully the watered down NL pitching wil give him a boost, because it looks as though Camden serves up the longball as frequently as GABP.
Probably the last one in but here goes.
In a thin catching market I think Hernandez is ok. I think the combination of the GABP, the NL Central and a little better luck will improve his offensive numbers to the point of being better than average for a catcher. His defense is only fair, but that is gold glove caliber compared with just about anything we've had around here for a long time. The legacy of poor receivers in Cincy includes Eddie Taubensee (a DH back there), Jason Larue (good arm, but I didn't like anything else about him defensively), Paul Bako (A "defensive specialist" who seemed below average in every way from what I saw) and the worst of the bunch David Ross. Hernandez will look pretty good in comparison if you look beyond the Caught Stealing numbers. He won't put up Larue or Ross numbers in that area, but he'll be a better receiver (more important IMO) and better hitter.
As for what the Reds gave up, I think Freel could be missed more than we think. I was pretty early to the party in calling Freel way over-rated by some and his running game (or better termed his little leagueesque get caught stealing and picked-off a lot game) was a real negative the last few years. But, he did have genuine utility in his abilities to play a decent OF, fill in elsewhere and above all get on base. The Reds would have probably done ok with a Dickerson/Freel platoon leading off in CF, so unless they bring in a clear upgrade that pushes Dickerson to the bench, I think they'll be hard pressed to find a better RH half for that job. Freel probably wasn't worth what he was going to cost the Reds in 2008, but he was the best guy on the roster for that role.
The rest of the deal is pretty contingent on how much money the Reds got in exchange for selling off some guys to make up the dollar difference. If its $3 Million, I think the Reds did well. If its only $1 Million, not so much. 3B is a crowded spot and Brandon Waring was far down the depth chart there. He has enough power to be interesting in a lets see how he develops kind of way, but IMO he's a long shot to ever be a big leaguer. Turner is a 2B who seems like he's a decent defender who can hit at the spot. The Reds bench and upper minors is filled with guys who the Reds hope can play an adequate 2B (Keppinger, Rosales, Valaika, Richar, Frazier maybe even Wilkin Castillo) but the Reds probably just dealt the only one who we know really can. He's still far from a sure thing and has less upside than many of the other prospects, but Turner can be a decent major league role player some day IMO. If the Reds got $3 Million it was probably worth dealing Turner to fill the catcher spot while hanging onto some payroll flexibility. If it was only a million, I'd probably hang on to Turner and just pay the extra million. The Reds will spend that much on bonuses for lesser players in the draft or some international signing.
In any event, I think the major league team is improved by this deal and the guys given up probably don't remove any of the team's trading power. I'd have preferred hanging on to Turner and dealing some one who is a lesser guy like Richar or Keppinger, but its ok. Decent deal on the whole.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
You want to know the beauty of all this is? Of all the trade rumors and proposals that occurs on this site, did anyone actually mentioned Hernandez as a possible catcher for the Reds?
I'm waiting for Uncle Walt to knock me on my butt with that righthanded hitter for the middle of the order.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
Several people did. We've been talking about him since last spring. Over that time he's gone from a guy we really wanted to a guy who we were lukewarm to. I think most prefer a long term solution. I generally hate giving up anything for stopgaps, but in this situation the guys the Reds gave up didn't cause much pain so it was a good deal.
I hope SS is next.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
They did? I must have been sleeping on the computer. Anyways if you want young talent, you have to give up young talent in return......see Hamilton for Volquez. Still, a righthanded hitter for the middle of the order, leadoff hitter and lefty bullpen remains on the list. I still think the Dye for Bailey deal will still go down.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
Yeah, sure. Here ya go: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...or?season=2008
Very handy site, esp. when discussing trades.
The Reds basically got an aging catcher with declining offensive skills (Orioles Park isn't exactly Petco) and a defensive game that basically looks to be declining faster than the price of homes near a GM plant. There probably is some room for upside with his bat though. Mostly though, the Reds get a recognizable name to stick behind the plate. Given lousy defense is more like internal hemorrhaging than a Freddy Kruger moment, I suspect many will be happy if he hits .270 and he actually catches throws to the plate (in other words some might think this deal is much more meaningful than I think it probably is).
This isn't a criticism-the calculus basically works on this one IMHO (the '09 roster is likely improved though the question is how much?)-but what happened to a new found commitment to improving the defense (kicked the tires on Dye and pulled the trigger on Hernandez)?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Nice job, Walt.
Now, go get us a SS, a big bat in LF and a right-handed hitting OF to team with Dickerson in CF and the Red might actually be in the running for a playoff spot.
Rem
I don't know the answer to the question I've got. Trades don't happen in a vacuuum. Given the market, who was available at a reasonable price that would meet the defensive criterion you posit? Looking at the free agent class, every catcher there is 31 or older (Josh Bard and Michael Barrett are the youngest at 31 and 32 respectively).
On a trade standpoint, who was available without giving up more than we wanted to give? Again, I don't know the answer to that question myself.
Clearly moving Freel's contract filling a position of need is a good one. Doesn't necessarily help with the win/loss bottom line, but it does eliminate a payroll issue. That's not a big plus, IMO, but it doesn't hurt.
The hope is (and I acknowledge it's only that for now) is that greener grass will give him a boost offensively. As with any player coming over, that remains to be seen.
On the catching side, the only possible plus is rather intangible. Will he be better as a receiver for our staff? Will he call a good game and give that extra help to make our pitchers better? I guess there's some metric somewhere that can analyze that, but again we'll have to see.
Jocketty has filled one need, and I'm not negative on the move, but the positive is just slight. Time to move forward and address the other needs during the off-season.
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