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Thread: Freel traded for Ramon Hernandez

  1. #376
    Joey Votto Fangirl HeatherC1212's Avatar
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    Re: Freel traded for Ramon Hernandez

    Ramon was actually quite good for the O's when he first got there both offensively and defensively. I believe the O's were hitting him fifth or so in the lineup due to his solid hitting that season. He suffered through some injuries two years ago and then last year was frustrating all the way around for the O's as a whole which could have affected his play. I can see a change of scenery allowing Ramon to play better in both offense and defense and especially with him potentially going into a new contract year, he may have more motivation to play harder. By the end of the season the last two years, the O's have basically had to hit the scrap heap to find starting pitching due to injuries which can't be fun as the catcher. And of course there's also the enigma known as Daniel Cabrera who I don't think even Bench could have caught very well. All those things could easily weigh down a player and I saw it happen with a few other O's last year too. I can see Ramon doing well for us (especially with Cueto and Volquez) and he's definitely an upgrade from last year's catching disaster.
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  3. #377
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Freel traded for Ramon Hernandez

    My two cents: I like trading an injury-prone utility guy who managed to play all of 123 games the last two years, plus two maybes in Turner and Waring, for a living, breathing starting catcher.

    Although I feel bad for M2, because losing Freel doesn't exactly make the Reds any less boring.
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  4. #378
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I can't recall Walt ever giving a bit player an expensive, multiyear contract.
    That's not completely true. Granted he may not give bit players those deals, but his signings of Adam Kennedy and Mark Mulder as well as his extension of Chris Carpenter were pretty much huge wastes of money. I like Walt but just like every GM he's prone to make a mistake now and then. Hopefully he's more careful then Wayne was in a smaller market.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  5. #379
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Walt gave a multi years deals to Adam Kennedy and Scott Spezio in 2006. He gave Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores 2 years in 2007. 2005 he gave Juan Encarnacion 3 years, Braden Looper 3, and Ricardo Rincon 2. David Eckstein got 3 years at the end of 2004. Ray King got 2 years.

    Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  6. #380
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.
    He managed to get Womack's best year too.

  7. #381
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?
    Impossible to measure the value of a move in isolation in any meaningfull way. That is to say, while we can calculate that Hernandez is worth X number of runs it doesn't mean much as no single player is typically enough to take a 70-75 win ballclub to the playoffs (short of a Bonds or someone like that). So maybe he adds a win, or two or a half-win. But when measured in isolation the analysis is rather meaningless.

    When The Jock is done making all his offseason/spring training moves, then we'll be able to analyize that his moves added X runs and will save Y runs resulting in a ABC win team (on paper).

    In broad, theroectical terms, adding a catcher with some experience, who isn't a poven black-hole of sucknicity, without adding to payroll and in the process ridding the team of an expensive usless part seems like "improvement" to me. While it's a gamble giving up tallent in the two prospects, even if Hernadez is mearly average to slightly below average it's a massive improvement over the previous versions of the catching three headed monster. Seems to me that gets us "closer" to the playoffs.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  8. #382
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Walt gave a multi years deals to Adam Kennedy and Scott Spezio in 2006. He gave Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores 2 years in 2007. 2005 he gave Juan Encarnacion 3 years, Braden Looper 3, and Ricardo Rincon 2. David Eckstein got 3 years at the end of 2004. Ray King got 2 years.

    Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.
    Aside from Rincon and Kennedy, he got solid production from a lot of those guys.

  9. #383
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Aside from Rincon and Kennedy, he got solid production from a lot of those guys.
    just pointing out that he also gives multi year deals.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  10. #384
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Impossible to measure the value of a move in isolation in any meaningfull way. That is to say, while we can calculate that Hernandez is worth X number of runs it doesn't mean much as no single player is typically enough to take a 70-75 win ballclub to the playoffs (short of a Bonds or someone like that). So maybe he adds a win, or two or a half-win. But when measured in isolation the analysis is rather meaningless.
    I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

    Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #385
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

    Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.
    A players individual impact obviously can be measured, but until you know who all the players are you are spinning your wheels measuring overall team performance.

    Sure, you can make an analysis today that the team will likely produce X number of wins and the recently acquired player added/subtracted Y number of wins. But a trade announced tonight changes that whole calculus. As the offseason gets shorter and the number of likely moves gets reduced then you can begin to rough out enough data to make analysis practical.

    I'm not saying you can't make an analysis right this second, I'm just saying it's worth squat until the roster is solidified somewhere around the first weeks of April.

    And since no player by himself can swing a teams number of wins a huge degree pretty much every move in isolation will result in the same outcome of "doesn't take us to the playoffs, don't change anything, rearranging the deck chairs, etc".
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  12. #386
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

    Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.
    I think the larger point is Hernandez has sliding value dependent on other factors, something I'm sure the Reds have taken into account.

    Again, does he allow the Reds to play a better glove at SS? How many runs will that save? What's the WPA value of him hitting with a little bit of power in the #7 slot of a capable lineup? That sort of thing qualifies as a bit of an extraneous luxury in a lineup that breaks down long before you get to the #7 slot, but it can be an important cog in pushing a club over the 800-run mark in a more functional unit.

    I'm with lollipop, you can measure his raw impact on the current unit, but I don't think it really means anything. The Reds surely hope the value of this move will be enhanced in combination with other moves.

    Seems to me this is the sort of secondary, orthagonal move I was referring to in this thread. I'm more interested in, hopefully, the series of moves that follow it.
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  13. #387
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

    Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.
    How reasonably can you predict a players performance? Were the predictions even close upon the final numbers of Volquez and Harang?

  14. #388
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    In broad, theroectical terms, adding a catcher with some experience, who isn't a poven black-hole of sucknicity, without adding to payroll and in the process ridding the team of an expensive usless part seems like "improvement" to me. While it's a gamble giving up tallent in the two prospects, even if Hernadez is mearly average to slightly below average it's a massive improvement over the previous versions of the catching three headed monster. Seems to me that gets us "closer" to the playoffs.
    I'm in favor of the deal as a whole, but one thing that's been bugging me from proponents of the deal is the two sided argument of payroll neutrality and "ridding an expensive piece."

    It's impossible that this deal did both. Either we added a $6,000,000 catcher-who may be slightly overpaid-but we got rid of a hefty contract.

    Or we added only $2,000,000 in salary, and got a starting caliber catcher.

    Sorry nitpicking but it's been bugging me.
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  15. #389
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How reasonably can you predict a players performance? Were the predictions even close upon the final numbers of Volquez and Harang?
    Pretty reasonably.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #390
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea- Freel for Ramon Hernandez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I'm in favor of the deal as a whole, but one thing that's been bugging me from proponents of the deal is the two sided argument of payroll neutrality and "ridding an expensive piece."

    It's impossible that this deal did both. Either we added a $6,000,000 catcher-who may be slightly overpaid-but we got rid of a hefty contract.

    Or we added only $2,000,000 in salary, and got a starting caliber catcher.

    Sorry nitpicking but it's been bugging me.
    Hernandez's production is more likely to be in line with his salary (with the cash considerations factored in) than Freel's would be if he was a Red in 2009. So while we didn't add payroll we rid the team of a more expensive player (when comparing production to salary).

    Freel is more expensive as a player (or to be more accurate, his production is more expensive) even though Hernandez may make more in total salary he does. The cost/value of a player is more than just the zeros on his paycheck.

    Making up numbers here:

    Hernandez gets paid $100 but gives 75% return so he "costs" $25

    Freel gets paid $60 but only gives a 50% return so his "cost" is $30.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


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