Reds have talked to agents for Baldelli, Rivera, plan to talk Burrell

[Jpup]

A. You don't bring up young players to sit on the bench
B. The guys in AA to start 2009 would have been in High A/Low A last year. You want to have them skip AA and AAA?

Sure you can. That's what the ceiling is for most of them. I see no problem for some them skipping AAA. You see it all the time with teams that really have a good farm.

[REDREAD]

I'm not sure Baldelli or Rivera have much upside.

Ok, then who should the Reds pursue? That's all I asking, what these "better options" are.

[reds44]

I can't see giving a contract to a guy than can't play more than a couple times a week. Truthfully, that is all you could expect.

That's all I would be paying him to do. Start 2-3 times a week, pinch hit in other games. I think he could do it.

[reds44]

Sure you can. That's what the ceiling is for most of them. I see no problem for some them skipping AAA. You see it all the time with teams that really have a good farm.

So you expect them to play to their ceiling while skipping two levels? Phenoms skip two levels, not bench players.

[Caveat Emperor]

Isn't that a bit harsh? Other than Dunn (who does not want to come back in all likelyhood), who do you suggest the Reds pursue?

Getting Rivera, Baldalli, or Burrell would improve the team. If the Reds do nothing about their OF, then they deserve to finish in last place.

Getting Burrell would be a step in the right direction.

Getting Rivera would be asking for disappointment and failure, praying that his contact-rate and BABIP remain high enough for him to collect enough base hits to avoid being an out-machine in the lineup.

(Incidentally -- M2 once had a great line about players like this akin to: If you can't get the guys with high ceilings, at least avoid the guys with deep cellars. Juan Rivera is a prototypical "deep cellar" kind of ballplayer.)

Getting Baldelli? Well, hope that Drew Stubbs gets ready in a hurry or that Chris Dickerson is the real deal -- otherwise be prepared to start Norris Hopper in the outfield around 100 times, because Baldelli's recent history suggests he's a poor bet to see more than 50 games next season. At best his contribution is projected at marginal, at worst he's a waste of cash resources both in the acquisition and cost of space in the training room. Like I said -- I feel for the kid, but he's a guy you stay far away from.

[Mario-Rijo]

What I bolded is precisely what my last sentence foreshadowed.

You see, people love to give players like Rivera chances because they're cheap and they see some false hope with their potential. It doesn't matter if that player is 30-years-old with an extreme high-risk (or just plain bad) playing record. They say "well he's only a million or two, he's cheap, so why not?"

And then what happens?

They play. They stink. People are shocked. SHOCKED! (not me, but they are). That player keeps playing. He also keeps stinking. Then he may be "shut down for a few weeks" on the DL to hide from stinking even more. Then he's rehabbed. Then he comes back again and gets more playing time again. And guess what? He stinks again.

It's one big pile of stink that keeps growing because he's a veteran on a big league contract.

Before you know it that player has pitched 78.1 innings and been absolutely devastating to your pitching staff. Or he's gone to the plate 392 times, many of those in the leadoff slot with a terrible on-base percentage. Or he's caught 96 games behind the plate and hit worse than a pitcher from May through the end of the season.

And this all happens because the Reds bring in a "veteran" that management thinks has proven something when in reality all that veteran has proven is that he just isn't worth a casual look, much less piles of playing time.

Exhibit A: Josh Fogg (boy, the Josh Fogg discussion was exactly like this - how do people like him now?)
Exhibit B: Corey Patterson
Exhibit C: Paul Bako

And that's just from 2008.

I'm tired of going down those roads. I want the road with actual, consistent run production. That's the road that teams take when they head to the playoffs.

I think your examples are poor choices, these are guys who have never proven to be very good. Rivera has produced when given the opportunities and well worth a flyer. Because people have made poor decisions acquiring guys who are obviously flawed doesn't make this another one.

[Jpup]

That's all I would be paying him to do. Start 2-3 times a week, pinch hit in other games. I think he could do it.

Why do you think he would come to Cincinnati to sit on the bench? I think New York and Boston provide a better opportunity for him. I'll pass unless he wants to play for the minimum.

[Jpup]

So you expect them to play to their ceiling while skipping two levels? Phenoms skip two levels, not bench players.

I said skip AAA, nothing about skipping AA.

[reds44]

Why do you think he would come to Cincinnati to sit on the bench? I think New York and Boston provide a better opportunity for him. I'll pass unless he wants to play for the minimum.

Well now you are switching the questions. All I said would I would target him on a 1 year deal for a few mil. I have no idea who has offered him outside of knowing we have talked to his agent.

[reds44]

I said skip AAA, nothing about skipping AA.

Ok, who exactly are you referring to?

There are two position players who I think have any chance of playing in the majors that were in AA last year, Dorn and Valaika.

[Mario-Rijo]

Getting Burrell would be a step in the right direction.

Getting Rivera would be asking for disappointment and failure, praying that his contact-rate and BABIP remain high enough for him to collect enough base hits to avoid being an out-machine in the lineup.

(Incidentally -- M2 once had a great line about players like this akin to: If you can't get the guys with high ceilings, at least avoid the guys with deep cellars. Juan Rivera is a prototypical "deep cellar" kind of ballplayer.)

Getting Baldelli? Well, hope that Drew Stubbs gets ready in a hurry or that Chris Dickerson is the real deal -- otherwise be prepared to start Norris Hopper in the outfield around 100 times, because Baldelli's recent history suggests he's a poor bet to see more than 50 games next season. At best his contribution is projected at marginal, at worst he's a waste of cash resources both in the acquisition and cost of space in the training room. Like I said -- I feel for the kid, but he's a guy you stay far away from.

If you take a look at Rivera's BABIP's they haven't been all that high in fact overall they have been lower than expected for a guy hitting for such averages.

[Jpup]

Well now you are switching the questions. All I said would I would target him on a 1 year deal for a few mil. I have no idea who has offered him outside of knowing we have talked to his agent.

The reason his agent called Jocketty is that he thinks he can get paid like a regular when he knows he isn't. Pure speculation, but logical speculation.

[reds44]

The reason his agent called Jocketty is that he thinks he can get paid like a regular when he knows he isn't. Pure speculation, but logical speculation.

You are arguing something different right now. If he wants the Reds to pay him like a regular, then I don't want him. I've said that all along.

[M2]

Rivera has produced when given the opportunities and well worth a flyer.

Yet the rule with flyers should be that the lowest bid wins. So maybe you do take a flyer on someone if you can't land a guy you really like, but say you can get Austin Kearns for less. Or maybe Juan Encarnacion has shown up on your doorstep looking fit and spunky.

Sounds to me like Rivera's hunting for a mid-tier commitment. I don't think he's worth that.

[Jpup]

You are arguing something different right now. If he wants the Reds to pay him like a regular, then I don't want him. I've said that all along.

I believe that's the only way he would come to the Reds. That's one major reason I don't want him.