Reds have talked to agents for Baldelli, Rivera, plan to talk Burrell

[Raisor]

Using Baseball-Reference.com's RC numbers, Rivera has been worth about 1.5 more runs per 100 PA's then Hopper over their careers.

[dougdirt]

As I said. People either really like losing, or there is a lack of understanding on the type of production of production the Reds need to acquire for next year.

What you're suggesting for Rivera is unrealistic and unlikely. You may not like that answer, but it's the truth. This is the same argument I saw nearly three years ago when Wily Mo Pena was dealt for Bronson Arroyo. People were assuring me then that Wily Mo Pena was going to provide that type of production you think Rivera can provide.

And you know what? I'm still waiting to see it. The names change, but the beat goes on. Meanwhile the team still sucks.

WMP = can't make contact at any kind of successful rate.
JR = Can make contact at a very successful rate.

Thats just simply a terrible comparison. Top it off that Juan Rivera has a track record, even if it was 2004-2006 of providing above average offensive value that was repeatable, while when WMP was showing he was 'good' was striking out over 30% of the time he stepped to the plate. Rivera strikes out around 11-12% of the time he steps to the plate.

But I would love for you to project me each player on the team then tell me why they will have such a season, and then show how we 'need' a player of Dunn's ilk to have a winning season, assuming Rivera is in your left field for 500 PA.

For the group of Votto/Bruce/Phillips/Encarnacion/Dickerson/Hernandez these are the two combined projections:

Player	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Marcels	2806	690	443	137	11	99	352	364	235	480	.275	.341	.456
James	3718	939	582	190	19	148	496	501	334	699	.280	.349	.480

Marcels seems a bit more realistic than the James projections, but even still, thats a fairly solid line from those 'starting 6'. The problem that Marcels has Bruce getting 426 PA, Dickerson just 261 and Votto just 503, which those guys are looking at more than that. Still, the overall AVG/OBP/SLG looks strong. So we still need a SS, other platooning CF and then a LF. If we can get league average guys from SS and LF that gives us another 500 PA of .334OBP/.408 SLG from the SS and a .352OBP/.461SLG from the LF. Those two look like they will keep the projections from Marcels pretty close don't they?

So now I guess I have to ask, is there a problem with these rate stats for the 6 starters listed above according to Marcels that you see?

Player	         AVG	OBP	SLG
Votto	        .296	.365	.493
Encarnacion	.271	.351	.453
Phillips	.272	.313	.448
Bruce	        .271	.336	.464
Hernandez	.259	.323	.410
Dickerson	.282	.367	.485

The only one that stands out as not really likely is Dickerson's slugging and maybe his AVG slightly, although I figure he can be close given he likely doesn't face lefties to often.

So if they can get just league average type production out of SS and LF, where do they need more offensive help at?

[Cyclone792]

Top it off that Juan Rivera has a track record, even if it was 2004-2006 of providing above average offensive value that was repeatable, while when WMP was showing he was 'good' was striking out over 30% of the time he stepped to the plate. Rivera strikes out around 11-12% of the time he steps to the plate.

You believe that Juan Rivera will post a .290/.335/.500 line. What you don't know is that line just doesn't happen. Something has to give, BA, walks. Guys don't slug that high with a paltry .045 IsoD and that type of BA.

SEASON
1955-2005
AVERAGE >= .290
OBA <= .335
WALKS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

SLG                           YEAR     SLG      AVG      OBA      BB       PA     
1    Matt Williams            1993     .561     .294     .325       27      619   
2    Alfonso Soriano          2002     .547     .300     .332       23      741   
3    Garret Anderson          2002     .539     .306     .332       30      678   
4    Robin Yount              1980     .519     .293     .321       26      647   
5    Ellis Valentine          1977     .504     .293     .331       30      541

Five players out of over 4,000 in 50+ years of data. That's 0.125 percent.

Lottery ticket players are something I steer away from. Juan Rivera is a truckload of scratches and sniffs.

[dougdirt]

Five players out of over 4,000 in 50+ years of data. That's 0.125 percent.

Lottery ticket players are something I steer away from. Juan Rivera is a truckload of scratches and sniffs.

And yet players within small fluctuations of that line do exist. From 1990-2007 with 350 AB's there were 45 guys who hit between .280-.300/.325-.345/.485+.

Its a rare breed, but not nearly as rare as you originally made it out to be. A guy with power who makes lots of contact certainly has the potential to put up that kind of line in GABP. Maybe not an exact replica of what I said, but something quite similar.

[Cyclone792]

And yet players within small fluctuations of that line do exist. From 1990-2007 with 350 AB's there were 45 guys who hit between .280-.300/.325-.345/.485+.

Its a rare breed, but not nearly as rare as you originally made it out to be. A guy with power who makes lots of contact certainly has the potential to put up that kind of line in GABP. Maybe not an exact replica of what I said, but something quite similar.

Yep, a whopping 45 in 18 years. That's 2.5 per year. Not to mention your comparison is invalid once you lumped in guys with an .065 IsoD. That's a different breed of player than a .045. As I said, a rarity.

Hell, Rivera will ground into a double play for every two walks he takes. But that's another story itself.

If you like lottery ticket players, feel free. I'm tired of losing so I'm not interested.

[Falls City Beer]

Yep, a whopping 45 in 18 years. That's 2.5 per year. Not to mention your comparison is invalid once you lumped in guys with an .065 IsoD. That's a different breed of player than a .045. As I said, a rarity.

Hell, Rivera will ground into a double play for every two walks he takes. But that's another story itself.

If you like lottery ticket players, feel free. I'm tired of losing so I'm not interested.

As others have pointed out, even if he sucks, he'll still play all the time because, well, they paid him good money, so he has to play.

[RedsManRick]

As I said. People either really like losing, or there is a lack of understanding on the type of production of production the Reds need to acquire for next year.

What you're suggesting for Rivera is unrealistic and unlikely. You may not like that answer, but it's the truth. This is the same argument I saw nearly three years ago when Wily Mo Pena was dealt for Bronson Arroyo. People were assuring me then that Wily Mo Pena was going to provide that type of production you think Rivera can provide.

And you know what? I'm still waiting to see it. The names change, but the beat goes on. Meanwhile the team still sucks.

I think a problem with this conversation is the lack of discussion about how chance works. This is another in a line of parlay bets.

We argue about each bet independently. Ramon Hernandez might bounce back to form. Juan Rivera might do what he's done a few years back. Jerry Hariston Jr. will put it together. Corey Patterson might find his stroke. Mike Lincoln's arm still has some life in it. Etc. Sure, a decent argument can be made supporting the optimistic side of any of those arguments.

The problem is that some people want to build a team that can only succeed if they win each bet in the parlay. Unfortunately, 50%*50%*50%*50%*50% is not 50%; it's 3%.

Sure, sometimes Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Jose Guillen, Joe Randa, or Jeremy Affeldt put up good numbers. But with equal or greater regularity, Josh Fogg, Rheal Cormier, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, Mike Stanton, Tony Womack, or Joe Mays don't work out. The team falls way short of winning. Some fans blame Corey Patterson for not being Jerry Hairston. But the problem was needing the production of Jerry Hairston to begin with.

If you have to rely on ?? production at more than a small number of spots to win this year don't waste your marginal resources on lottery tickets in a most likely futile attempt to hit the jackpot. Save your money and start truly addressing the number and scale of ?? to begin with.

[Cyclone792]

As others have pointed out, even if he sucks, he'll still play all the time because, well, they paid him good money, so he has to play.

It'd be a damn shame too. A real damn shame.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think a problem with this conversation is the lack of discussion about how chance works. This is another in a line of parlay bets.

We argue about each bet independently. Ramon Hernandez might bounce back to form. Juan Rivera might do what he's done a few years back. Jerry Hariston Jr. will put it together. Corey Patterson might find his stroke. Mike Lincoln's arm still has some life in it. Etc. Sure, a decent argument can be made supporting the optimistic side of any of those arguments.

The problem is that some people want to build a team that can only succeed if they win each bet in the parlay. Unfortunately, 50%*50%*50%*50%*50% is not 50%; it's 3%.

Sure, sometimes Jerry Hairston, Mike Lincoln, Jose Guillen, Joe Randa, or Jeremy Affeldt put up good numbers. But with equal or greater regularity, Josh Fogg, Rheal Cormier, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, Mike Stanton, Tony Womack, or Joe Mays don't work out. The team falls way short of winning. Some fans blame Corey Patterson for not being Jerry Hairston. But the problem was needing the production of Jerry Hairston to begin with.

If you have to rely on ?? production at more than a small number of spots to win this year don't waste your marginal resources on lottery tickets in a most likely futile attempt to hit the jackpot. Save your money and start truly addressing the number and scale of ?? to begin with.

But the whole thing in a nutshell is this, those guys you mentioned for the most part when given the opportunity have largely not produced much (sans Rivera and Guillen). Rivera has produced and quite well when given the chance and when healthy. He has done what we would ask of any Red which is to have a good OBP% and a good Slg%. But because he doesn't simply take enough walks we are to assume that he can't possibly repeat it? Their have been many a player who has had the skill set to get on base at a high clip without walking as much as many would like. Why is it a stretch to believe that Juan Rivera isn't one of those players who has the skill set to hit for a high average consistenly? I'm not gonna state he is as good as a Pete Rose or a Tony Gwynn but they had both higher averages and higher OBP%'s than what I am speculating for Rivera, no he's not that repeatable but he has proven to have a .290+ repeatable stick.

The guy has proven it IMO, he has had a .300+ career average in the minors along with a .350/.485 line, he has also produced a .285 career major league line despite inconsistent playing time and 2 freak injuries (neither of which seem like the re-occuring type) with a .331/.468 OBP/SLG. I don't think it's a stretch to say that this same guy can have a .290/.340/.480/.820 OPS. Now is that enough for a middle of the order hitter, surely not ideal and arguably even respectable for a #4 type. But combining that line with good defense, cheap salary and being he's from the Angels likely good baserunning he's a very, very good value.

Or to put it another way he may not be what we should be looking for but unless another Holliday type becomes ava. he is the most reasonable solution for the money/years that's ava.

[nate]

Yep, a whopping 45 in 18 years. That's 2.5 per year. Not to mention your comparison is invalid once you lumped in guys with an .065 IsoD. That's a different breed of player than a .045. As I said, a rarity.

Hell, Rivera will ground into a double play for every two walks he takes. But that's another story itself.

Impossible.

He'll be hitting behind Brandon Phillips.

[dougdirt]

Cyclone, let me ask this.... Give a guy 500 PA who strikes out 12% of the time, walks 6.5% of the time and has a career IsoP of .184 and put him in Cincinnati and what do you see him doing?

My math tells me we will see that guy strikes out 60 times, walks 33 times and puts the ball in play 407 times. So basically it comes down to what kind of power do you think he is going to show over that time.

Given the 500 PA, 12% K rate and 6.5% BB rate here is what he would do, AVG wise depending on the HR output/BABIP

PA	K	BB	AB	BIP (inc HR)								
500	60	33	467	407								
												
												
Non HR Hits with	10 HR	15 HR	20 HR	25 HR		AVG W	10 HR	15 HR	20 HR	25 HR
BABIP	0.270		107	106	104	103			0.251	0.259	0.266	0.274
BABIP	0.280		111	110	108	107			0.259	0.268	0.274	0.283
BABIP	0.290		115	114	112	111			0.268	0.276	0.283	0.291
BABIP	0.300		119	118	116	114			0.276	0.285	0.291	0.298
BABIP	0.310		123	121	120	118			0.285	0.291	0.300	0.306

So basically, to me at least, it comes down to whether you think he can have some power in his bat to the tune of a HR every 24 AB's or so which has been his career average. If you think that and he carries a league average BABIP of .290-.310 he is going to hit about 20 HR and hit you .283-300 and likely slug .450+. If you think his power will increase by coming to Cincinnati, then odds are you think his average will be in a slightly higher range if his BABIP is normal. If you think he has no power, then you feel he is going to hit much lower than that.

Added
So lets just go ahead and say he can be league average in BABIP at .300 and he keeps his 2B/AB career rate and his HR/AB rate. That puts him on page to hit .291/.338/.478 over those 500 PA. Is that really out of reach?

[edabbs44]

As I said. People either really like losing, or there is a lack of understanding on the type of production of production the Reds need to acquire for next year.

What you're suggesting for Rivera is unrealistic and unlikely. You may not like that answer, but it's the truth. This is the same argument I saw nearly three years ago when Wily Mo Pena was dealt for Bronson Arroyo. People were assuring me then that Wily Mo Pena was going to provide that type of production you think Rivera can provide.

And you know what? I'm still waiting to see it. The names change, but the beat goes on. Meanwhile the team still sucks.

If this team isn't going to get the players it needs to thrust them into the next level right now, then Juan Rivera is the type of guy they need to target as long as the terms of the contract do not hinder them in any way moving forward.

Rivera had a very solid 2006, then gets injured in early 2007. They bring him along slowly in 2008, only getting 95 PAs in the first half.

The second half sees him post a phenomenal July, a solid Sept and a miserable August (where, some might say, he was quite the unlucky one with a sub .200 BABIP).

The guy has upside. I'm not sure why some choose to ignore that.

[SteelSD]

If this team isn't going to get the players it needs to thrust them into the next level right now, then Juan Rivera is the type of guy they need to target as long as the terms of the contract do not hinder them in any way moving forward.

Rivera had a very solid 2006, then gets injured in early 2007. They bring him along slowly in 2008, only getting 95 PAs in the first half.

The second half sees him post a phenomenal July, a solid Sept and a miserable August (where, some might say, he was quite the unlucky one with a sub .200 BABIP).

The guy has upside. I'm not sure why some choose to ignore that.

I don't think anyone ignores that. Unfortunately, the reality is that low-IsoD hitters like Rivera simply don't project well and they don't age well either. He doesn't have scary power. He's not fast. He really doesn't have a singular special skill set that would somehow project to compensate for his pitiful IsoD.

I have no problem throwing a million or two (no more) for a year at a Juan Rivera as long as it's for him to be a backup OF who can spell Bruce or Dickerson against a tough LH SP or for him to jump off off the bench late in the game to hit against one of these scary LOOGY's I keep hearing we need to be worried about. And if he goes all Jose Guillen while filling in for an injured starter, then more power to him (and more trade power to the Reds).

But to spend real money on a guy like that as part of a master plan is the kind of silly risk the Reds need to start avoiding if they're serious about winning baseball games sometime this century. And I think we agree on that point.

[M2]

He doesn't have scary power. He's not fast. He really doesn't have a singular special skill set that would somehow project to compensate for his pitiful IsoD.

He's also a fairly poor defensive OF. I don't know where that misconception got started that he somehow has defensive skills. Maybe somebody got him mixed up with Ruben Rivera.

[Johnny Footstool]

He had an awful OBP, but not an awful year. An OPS north of .800 is not awful.

For the money he was being paid, yes it was.