Reds have talked to agents for Baldelli, Rivera, plan to talk Burrell

[Jpup]

Ok, then who should the Reds pursue? That's all I asking, what these "better options" are.

Randy Winn, as has been discussed, wouldn't be a bad idea if he could be had cheaply. I also like Aaron Rowand. Milton Bradley is my first choice for left field.

[reds44]

I believe that's the only way he would come to the Reds. That's one major reason I don't want him.

If that's what he wants, I don't want him either.

[Mario-Rijo]

Yet the rule with flyers should be that the lowest bid wins. So maybe you do take a flyer on someone if you can't land a guy you really like, but say you can get Austin Kearns for less. Or maybe Juan Encarnacion has shown up on your doorstep looking fit and spunky.

Sounds to me like Rivera's hunting for a mid-tier commitment. I don't think he's worth that.

I don't know what he's asking for, he's been speculated to take as little 2-3 million per for a year or 2. I'd take that gamble myself. If he's asking for more than say 3.5 or 4 I'm not nearly as interested and especially if it's for more than 1 or maybe 2 years. I'm personally thinking of a 1 yr 3 million dollar contract with a mutual option for 4 million that either can turn down. And that's probably maximum.

[RedsManRick]

I think your examples are poor choices, these are guys who have never proven to be very good. Rivera has produced when given the opportunities and well worth a flyer. Because people have made poor decisions acquiring guys who are obviously flawed doesn't make this another one.

He's a 30 year old LF with a career .799 OPS coming off a broken leg. It seems completely reasonable that he's not the sort of guy you should pay a few milliion bucks for. Sure, he very well could put up another .850 OPS season. But chances are he won't.

I'm all for exposing the roster to upside potential, and I think Rivera could provide that. But I wouldn't want to have to count on it or a spend a few million bucks a few hundred plate appearances to find out during a year where we're trying to compete.

Let's say you do get him on a 1 year deal for $2M. Is that your move to address LF? Do you pen him in as your starter? Does that make sense when you just flipped 2 prospects and spent a few million bucks for a mediocre 1 year upgrade elsewhere? If not, do you want to pay $2M for a 4th OF?

[corkedbat]

I think some people are saying you don't have a chance to compete with the Cubs - why do anything if you can't pick up a top prospect?

I think it safe to say that barring a series of injuries or bad seasons by key Cubs, this team isn't going to win the division, but I don't think that's the goal this offseason.

I think Jocketty and Castellini while they'd love to win the division or make the playoffs, would settle gladly for being solid at eight positions and in the pitching staff, playing an entertaining brand of baseball and hopefully being in shouting distance of the Wild Card come the 1st of August.

Maybe the Wild Card isn't realistic either, with Philly and the Mets sitting in the East, but I don't think that means they don't try. I certainly wouldn't want to try to sell that to the fans and try selling them tickets at the same time.

I think there are moves they can make to improve this team in the short term without dealikng the key young players on this franchise (unliess you're gonna go fretting the loss of every justin Turner).

Maybe it doesn't get them to the playoffs this year, but I think the Cards, Brewers, and Astros have plenty of questions of their own. Even if they don't make the post season, I'd rather watch a team battling them for second or third place in the division, instead of struggling against the Pirates to stay out of last. And who knows? the Cubs are the Cubs afterall.

I know that some will say Daye (or any of the other names mentioned) are a waste of time/resources, but adding a Veteran like him can take pressure off Votto, Bruce, etc. while giving them another vet to watch and learn from.

[Mario-Rijo]

He's a 30 year old LF with a career .799 OPS coming off a broken leg. It seems completely reasonable that he's not the sort of guy you should pay a few milliion bucks for. Sure, he very well could put up another .850 OPS season. But chances are he won't.

I'm all for exposing the roster to upside potential, and I think Rivera could provide that. But I wouldn't want to have to count on it or a spend a few million bucks a few hundred plate appearances to find out during a year where we're trying to compete.

I happen to think it's not a whole lot more unreasonable than to believe Jermaine Dye wouldn't fall off a cliff. If we are gonna take a chance on a guy why wouldn't it be the younger, cheaper, better defensive guy who has some upside as opposed to none or downside? I'm not just shooting off here, look at Rivera's BABIP, LD% etc. he looks to be more a potential gem than not.

[Raisor]

By my count, Rivera has had about 800 top notch PA's worth of business.

62 PA's in 03 of .322/.344/.695 (2nd half of season)
237 PA's in 04 .358/.418/.526 (2nd half of season)
494 PA's in 06 .320/.363/.525 (full season)

I dunno, when he's good, he's really really good, but he's bad (really really bad) more often.

[Cyclone792]

I think your examples are poor choices, these are guys who have never proven to be very good. Rivera has produced when given the opportunities and well worth a flyer. Because people have made poor decisions acquiring guys who are obviously flawed doesn't make this another one.

Except it's not a poor choice because Rivera has never proven to be good. Flukes aren't consistently good. Rivera is a fluke, not consistently good. Now he's 30 and coming off a broken leg. Sorry. Do not want.

The Reds would sign him and he'd up in a corner outfield slot getting 400 plate appearances in the middle of the order as an out-making machine. The Reds offense would struggle to score runs - again - and then people will be trying to blame Edwin Encarnacion.

[Cyclone792]

(Incidentally -- M2 once had a great line about players like this akin to: If you can't get the guys with high ceilings, at least avoid the guys with deep cellars. Juan Rivera is a prototypical "deep cellar" kind of ballplayer.)

Low floors, that's precisely it.

Juan Rivera has a floor that's buried in a mine somewhere.

[REDREAD]

Randy Winn, as has been discussed, wouldn't be a bad idea if he could be had cheaply. I also like Aaron Rowand. Milton Bradley is my first choice for left field.

Ok, didn't the Giants just sign Rowand to a 5 year, 60 million contract last year? I don't think he'd be available, but he would be a great addition in CF if available.

I'm not sure if Wynn can still play CF or not, because I haven't seen much of him the last few years. He's 34. He also seems to have to bat 300 in order to have an OBP over 350. Not a lot of power, but a decent player. But he's been very durable. Not a bad choice. Is he a FA?

I suspect Milton Bradley is going to get a huge contract. He's so volatile, I'm not sure I would want to risk signing him to a long term deal. There's always the risk he's going to do something really stupid. There's a good reason why he's bounced around so much.

So, I like your first two ideas, don't like Bradley though. Way too much risk and he will take a lot of $$ and years to sign.

[OnBaseMachine]

Aaron Rowand? Stay as far away from him as possible.

[REDREAD]

The reason his agent called Jocketty is that he thinks he can get paid like a regular when he knows he isn't. Pure speculation, but logical speculation.

I think you are talking about Rivera here. Cincy is a logical place for his agent to call. We need two more OF and probably aren't going to be big spenders on them. It's hard to guess what's going through his mind. Maybe he'd rather have an opportunity to play every day in Cincy instead of sitting on the bench in NY, even for less money. You never know.

[REDREAD]

Yet the rule with flyers should be that the lowest bid wins. So maybe you do take a flyer on someone if you can't land a guy you really like, but say you can get Austin Kearns for less. Or maybe Juan Encarnacion has shown up on your doorstep looking fit and spunky.

Sounds to me like Rivera's hunting for a mid-tier commitment. I don't think he's worth that.

Not sure I agree that the lowest bid always wins. It depends on what the team's goal is. Sure, if the team is out of money and can only pay 500k for a rotation slot, you sign Jimmy Anderson.

But if the team has some money, doesn't it make more sense to take a flyer on the guy that you actually think has the greatest chance of rebounding? Not necessarily break the bank, but player A at 1 million might be a worst option than player B at 3 million. Example, do you take a flyer on Patterson again or Rivera (or a pick a mid level guy you like)? Patterson is going to be the lowest bid.

[OnBaseMachine]

FWIW, I wasn't much of a Juan Rivera fan either until I read some recent posts by Johnny Footstool that changed my mind on him. I'm still not completely sold on him but I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him in on a one year (two at most) deal. I just think a league change and the GABP could do him some good... but ideally he'd be a fourth outfielder.

I'd really like to see Rocco Baldelli brought in and platooned with Danny Dorn in left. If Matt Joyce can come up and OPS .842 vs RHP then I don't see why Danny Dorn can't do the same. They are the same age (Dorn is two weeks older) and Dorn's (.915 OPS) minor league numbers blow Joyce's (.804 OPS) out of the water.

[RedLegSuperStar]

wouldn't Rivera and Baldelli cost the Reds the same amount as Jermaine Dye in money?