2008-09 BCS Discussion/Projections

[Cyclone792]

Might as well start its own thread. The BCS will probably be out around 4:30pm, though the Harris poll may be available before that. When the Harris poll comes out, we might be able to guess the BCS order since the Coaches poll has already been released:

No.	School		Record	Points	Prev
1	Alabama (57)	12-0	1520	1
2	Oklahoma (2)	11-1	1396]	2
3	Texas 		11-1	1395	4
4	Florida (1)	11-1	1384	3
5	USC 		10-1	1297	5
6	Penn State 	11-1	1175	6
7	Utah 		12-0	1152	7
8	Texas Tech (1)	11-1	1124	8
9	Boise State 	12-0	1043	9
10	Ohio State 	10-2	999	10
11	TCU 		10-2	836	14
12	Cincinnati 	10-2	770	16
13	Ball State 	12-0	765	15
14	Oregon 		9-3	658	18
15	Oklahoma State 	9-3	613	12
16	Georgia Tech 	9-3	590	23
17	Missouri 	9-3	470	11
18	Brigham Young 	10-2	461	19
19	Georgia 	9-3	440	13
20	Boston College 	9-3	435	22
21	Michigan State 	9-3	414	21
22	Northwestern 	9-3	333	20
23	Pittsburgh 	8-3	154	26
24	Oregon State 	8-4	127	17
25	Mississippi 	8-4	126	27

Texas picked up 41 points on Oklahoma this week in the Coaches poll, and with that I think they now have the inside-track to the BCS title game. Oklahoma will get a boost in the computers because of their quality win last night on the road against a ranked Oklahoma State team, but I don't think they'll get enough of a boost to offset the gains Texas picked up in the Coaches poll. FWIW, I also expect Texas to make points gains in the Harris poll too.

For the fun of it, here are my own BCS projections as of now:

BCS National Championship
Florida vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Utah

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Boston College

Rose Bowl
USC vs. Penn State

[LoganBuck]

Agree, I also think UC fans are quick to overlook VaTech. They could give Boston College as surprise this week.

Potential gate crashers
Oregon State-- if USC loses to UCLA, Oregon State clinches Pac10 Rose Bowl bid via tiebreaker. USC gets at large bid tentatively going to Ohio State or maybe Boise State.

Boise State -- Can a bowl take Boise State over Ohio State, and still hope to turn a profit? They are a sentimental choice, but the bowl committees need to sell tickets, hotels, meals, alcohol, and TV advertising.

[KronoRed]

Already it's starting in some quarters "lets have a rematch of Texas and Oklahoma" in the BCS title game.

Hey SEC winner, USC, Penn St you guys can sit on it for winning your conference, we want a rematch of a game that wasn't even that interesting the first time.

Pfft.

[LoganBuck]

Already it's starting in some quarters "lets have a rematch of Texas and Oklahoma" in the BCS title game.

Hey SEC winner, USC, Penn St you guys can sit on it for winning your conference, we want a rematch of a game that wasn't even that interesting the first time.

Pfft.

Agree, the precedent was set in 2006, we don't want to see it, and that 2006 OSU-Michigan game was very competitive.

[OnBaseMachine]

Please keep Oklahoma out of the National Championship game.

[Cyclone792]

Harris poll is out:

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/new...ov_30_2008.pdf

Texas goes from trailing Oklahoma by 21 points to leading Oklahoma by six points. This will be determined by the computer rankings, which last week gave Texas a decent advantage. Of course, with Texas playing a weak opponent at home and Oklahoma winning a tough road game, those will tighten up.

My prediction is Texas by a nose.

[Highlifeman21]

Please keep Oklahoma out of the National Championship game.

Seriously.

They are a good team offensively, but the Big 12 as a whole plays zero defense. Zero. Zip. Zilch.


Dunn went to Texas, so maybe that's where he learned his brand of defense....



... but on a more serious note, Oklahoma's lack of D would get seriously exploited by a number of teams at the top of the BCS rankings, and IMO they'd be a horrible team to play in the NC, unless they played another Big 12 team (which we don't need to see, nor should we)...

[OnBaseMachine]

Choklahoma is #2 in the BCS. Unreal. The BCS is garbage it's completely ruining college football. It's sucking the fun completely out of college football. I hope that arrogant punk Bob Stoops and his OK team gets crushed by 20+ points. And they will, because they're Choklahoma.

[Cyclone792]

Wow, so my prediction was off ... it's Oklahoma by a nose.

[RedsBaron]

The BCS is a bad joke.

[KronoRed]

The stage is now set for the Ok/Tex rematch.

Zzzzz.

[KronoRed]

Interesting stuff.

In the BCS era, teams that won their conference championship game to get to the national title game are 6-1. Teams from conferences without championship games are 4-7. Teams from conferences with championship games that got to the title game without winning their conference championship are 0-2.

[Caveat Emperor]

Boise State -- Can a bowl take Boise State over Ohio State, and still hope to turn a profit? They are a sentimental choice, but the bowl committees need to sell tickets, hotels, meals, alcohol, and TV advertising.

These games will sell out regardless of the teams involved, so ticket sales aren't really that big a concern. TV revenue is the same way -- really the only way you seriously boost TV numbers is to put a school like Notre Dame, with a truly national fanabse, into the game or a school like USC from a huge media-market. Boise State / Ohio State is almost a wash in my mind; Columbus TVs vs. Cinderella Interest balances out, IMO.

I'd be truly disappointed if the BCS snubbed Boise State, who have already delivered the best BCS game in recent memory, just to sell a few more hotel rooms.

[OnBaseMachine]

I love how Oklahoma is ranked ahead of Texas despite them having the same record and Texas beat Choklahoma by 10 points. Makes perfect sense to me. The BS = garbage.

[Cyclone792]

Here is the full top 40: