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View Poll Results: Who should we target?

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  • Bobby Abreu

    7 22.58%
  • Milton Bradley

    7 22.58%
  • Pat Burrell

    4 12.90%
  • Jermain Dye

    6 19.35%
  • Other trade target at 3B or COF (please name)

    7 22.58%
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Thread: Who should we target?

  1. #16
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I picked Abreu, as I did in the prior thread. But after reading an analysis of his defense over at fangraphs, I'm not so sure.
    But would Abreu be any worse defensively in LF than Adam Dunn?

    It's possible that he is worse defensively than Adam Dunn, but if LF is the ultimately destination for Abreu, does his lack of defensive really matter?

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  3. #17
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    But would Abreu be any worse defensively in LF than Adam Dunn?

    It's possible that he is worse defensively than Adam Dunn, but if LF is the ultimately destination for Abreu, does his lack of defensive really matter?
    Abreu would be night and day better than Adam Dunn in left field. Anyone that suggests otherwise should be considered a little silly.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  4. #18
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    in order, Dukes, Young, Hermida.

    I'd be thrilled with any of those three.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #19
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Abreu would be night and day better than Adam Dunn in left field. Anyone that suggests otherwise should be considered a little silly.
    Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  6. #20
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.
    I don't know how true it is, but I've heard that Abreu refuses to dive or make plays near walls.

  7. #21
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.
    I watched the guy play, at least 75 games last year, and there is no way that he is not a better defender than Adam Dunn. He has a very good arm. No, he doesn't have the cannon he used to, but he throws pretty well.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  8. #22
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    I voted for Jermaine Dye. Take a good look at his numbers over the last 3 years and let me know what you think. And yeah, he will be 35 by next season, but I don't foresee too much of a drop-off.

  9. #23
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I voted for Jermaine Dye. Take a good look at his numbers over the last 3 years and let me know what you think. And yeah, he will be 35 by next season, but I don't foresee too much of a drop-off.
    Look at Dye's defensive numbers as well. His -72 is the worst at RF from 2006-2008 according to the Plus-Minus System. There really is not a good defensive LF available in free agency, though.

  10. #24
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    I watched the guy play, at least 75 games last year, and there is no way that he is not a better defender than Adam Dunn. He has a very good arm. No, he doesn't have the cannon he used to, but he throws pretty well.
    Having an arm is only part of defensive proficiency. But Abreu's 2008 season defensively is one of those "linchpin" seasons for which I wait for an explanation. His UZR (defensive Runs above/below average) was -25.2 Runs. If that were true, it would dwarf the very worst season Adam Dunn has posted in the field, even when translated; and Abreu's negative defensive value would actually project him as a negative-Win player versus league average, even in LF.

    I'm not saying I buy anything other than the concept that Abreu isn't anything close to a good defensive player at his age. I'll allow folks who've tied their concepts of defensive player value to things like UZR to respond further.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  11. #25
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Having an arm is only part of defensive proficiency. But Abreu's 2008 season defensively is one of those "linchpin" seasons for which I wait for an explanation. His UZR (defensive Runs above/below average) was -25.2 Runs. If that were true, it would dwarf the very worst season Adam Dunn has posted in the field, even when translated; and Abreu's negative defensive value would actually project him as a negative-Win player versus league average, even in LF.

    I'm not saying I buy anything other than the concept that Abreu isn't anything close to a good defensive player at his age. I'll allow folks who've tied their concepts of defensive player value to things like UZR to respond further.
    defensive stats are horrible IMO. Watch the guy play.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  12. #26
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Who should we target?

    A look at Abreu's defense in 2008 via PBP-based metrics:

    CHONE: -11
    PMR: -12
    Dewan's (+/-)= -20
    bUZR: -25

    It's pretty simply really-Abrue has been a minus defender for quite a while but for what ever reason he uniformly stunk last year. Looking at that survey, I'm comfortable saying he was a -15 defender last season. Using such a survey to look at his past several years, I'm comfortable saying that his true skill level is probably captured by an interval of -10 to -15 runs with the likelihood being he's worse than better if he's outside that range in '09 given he's aging.

    Abrue's value is all derived from his bat. Given the extent of his lousy defense and the positional adjustment ding for playing a corner position, he has to be a two win bat just to be a league average player (in other words his defense and the positional adjustment eat up 2 wins ).

    His projections suggest he should be expected to do that though he shouldn't be expected to be a whole more than that. The point is he's going to cost a lot of money (and maybe several years) and he isn't going to be the impact player that some might associate with his name.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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