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View Poll Results: Should Willy Tavares be a Red in 2009?

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  • Yes

    28 21.88%
  • No

    100 78.13%
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Thread: Willy Taveras

  1. #31
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    When I said his OBP is not the greatest, I did not say it was so bad he would not help this club.
    The disconnect here is this: Taveras' OBP is bad enough that he wouldn't help the club. It's so bad that he'll actually hurt the club.

    Walks are constants much more than hits. You get season to season variation in hits whereas you won't see as much variation in walks. The ideal leadoff hitter needs to be walking once every 10 PAs. Taveras only walks once every 19 PAs. That's a massive discrepancy.
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  3. #32
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    You could make an argument that Corey Patterson is the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. Willy Taveras isn't in the same universe.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
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  4. #33
    HS Athletic Director alexad's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post

    No, I don't think that we are entering an era of "slap stick" hitting. Small ball teams like the Cardinals were a thing of the 70s and 80s. The problem is the Reds FO still thinks we're back there.

    WE have tried the hit'em out of the park hitters and it got us NO WHERE FAST. We have a GM who likes small ball and that is what he is doing to the Reds. He has one power stroke in the lineup when he was in St. Louis and Big Mac could hit the ball a long way. He was surrounded by small ball players.

    I see the Reds being a small ball team, with a no player hitting over 30 homeruns next year.
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  5. #34
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Here's another angle to look at walks from the perspective of a fast leadoff hitter (or any leadoff hitter really) ...

    How aggravated do you get when Reds pitchers walk an opposing team's leadoff hitter?
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  6. #35
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    [QUOTE=alexad;1780422]
    So are we saying Patterson is better than Taveras????? I would hope not.
    The argument was about defense. And I think Corey actually is better than Taveras on that side of the ball. Both are abysmal offensive players.

    When I said his OBP is not the greatest, I did not say it was so bad he would not help this club. You have to get on base to steal bases.
    You're right. And Taveras gets on base about 32% of the time. That's not good. At all. Especially not for a leadoff batter. To make matters worse, the amount of times he tries to steal actually probably detracts from that number. He makes outs at the plate and then risks making outs when he gets on. Again, not good.

    The man played in Colorado and his defense was leaps and bounds better than Patterson. This man can run from one side of the field to the other. SUPER FAST!!!!
    I have no idea what playing in Colorado has to do with proving that he is a better defender than Patterson. We should know by now that it isn't about mere speed. Otherwise, Deion Sanders would have been a HOF.

    What else can we put in Centerfield??? Bruce is a rightfielder, not centerfielder. Dickerson can play there, but is he really ready? Last year was a make or break year for Dickerson and he showed great promise, but I am not sure I can hand him the CF job. We have to have a lead off hitter with the lineup we are going to put out on the field.
    I actually don't think running Bruce out there for a year or two would be a bad idea. If not, I think Dickerson can handle both leadoff and CF, but I may be in the minority there. At any rate, I think Dickerson has a chance to be better than Taveras would be--and then we wouldn't be putting poison (a speedy, low OBP CF) in Dusty's hands.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #36
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    WE have tried the hit'em out of the park hitters and it got us NO WHERE FAST. We have a GM who likes small ball and that is what he is doing to the Reds. He has one power stroke in the lineup when he was in St. Louis and Big Mac could hit the ball a long way. He was surrounded by small ball players.

    I see the Reds being a small ball team, with a no player hitting over 30 homeruns next year.
    Our offense wasn't the problem over those years. You forget that while we were hitting 'em out, we had no one keeping them in. Add some decent pitching to those Dunn-Griffey teams, and you've really got something.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  8. #37
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    WE have tried the hit'em out of the park hitters and it got us NO WHERE FAST.
    Are you sure? Could the lack of winning be related, perhaps, to the lack of quality pitching? Maybe?

  9. #38
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    I'm with pahster and RedEye... leading the NL in runs scored is a GOOD thing.

    Add in merely average to good pitching and you're headed to the playoffs.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  10. #39
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    In 2008, 19 NL leadoff hitters had 200+ PA's (in the leadoff spot).

    Here is their story.

    They created a combined 1,093.4 runs in 7370 PA's (RC includes SB's btw).

    That's 89 RC per 600 PA's.

    In Willy's career, he's put up the following RC numbers (which gives credit to SB's once again).

    05 66.06 per 600 pa
    06 66.66 per 600 pa
    07 84.54 per 600 pa
    08 63.24 per 600 PA

    Even in his best year (07) he was still 5 runs short of AVERAGE. In his three other seasons he's an average of -24 runs created per 600 PA's. For the four years, he's about 20 runs short of being average.

    This is not a guy you want even for "depth", let alone starting for you.
    Last edited by Raisor; 12-16-2008 at 11:24 PM.
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  11. #40
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    WE have tried the hit'em out of the park hitters and it got us NO WHERE FAST.
    A little history lesson is needed here. Your beef with the offense shouldn't be with home run hitting, instead it should be with OBP.

    The Reds vs. MLB in runs scored, HRs and OBP:

    Code:
    Season	Runs Rank	HR Rank		OBP Rank
    2000: 	14		11		15
    2001: 	21		16		20
    2002:	20		11		18
    2003: 	26		11		26
    2004: 	20		11		18
    2005: 	4		3		6
    2006: 	22		3		16
    2007: 	14		3		16
    2008: 	23		7		25
    And just for fun, how the Reds' team ERA compared to the rest of MLB over those same years.

    Code:
    Season	ERA Rank	
    2000: 	6		
    2001: 	24
    2002:	17		
    2003: 	27
    2004: 	29
    2005: 	28
    2006: 	14
    2007: 	27	
    2008: 	23
    In short, it's the pitching, stupid. Don't blame the home runs when it's the pitching and lack of OBP bringing this team down.
    Last edited by paintmered; 12-16-2008 at 09:53 PM.
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  12. #41
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    I have to agree to disagree with you on that one.
    on what basis?
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  13. #42
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Even in his best year (07) he was still 5 runs short of AVERAGE. In his three other seasons he's an average of -24 runs created per 600 PA's. For the four years, he's about 20 runs short of being average.
    ... but the SBs triple his runs created.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  14. #43
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Are you sure? Could the lack of winning be related, perhaps, to the lack of quality pitching? Maybe?
    the Reds were 13th in runs scored in the NL in 2008 while playing in an offensive park. I would say offense is likely to be a big problem.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  15. #44
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Anybody who wants to make the baserunning argument should consider how much Taveras is really adding on the bases.

    We can get there pretty quickly with rough math. Run expectancy tables and linear weights tell us that the break-even point around 75% and that the average SB is worth ~.2 runs

    So the formula is just

    .2*(SB-3CS)=SB Runs

    For Tavares in 2008, it comes out to 9.4 runs.

    The more sophisticated version, BP's Equivilent SB Runs (EQSBR), puts it at 8.95 runs for 2008. It puts his total contribution on the bases at 11.9 runs, #2 in MLB and a pretty hefty total.

    What's scary is that given the rest of his game, that baserunning production basically represents the sum total of his production above replacement. If he puts together another 2008 on the bases, he's worth about a win. If he produces another 2007, where he produced 1.4 runs on the bases, he's worth basically his major league minimum salary.

    When you already have a guy who is quite likely to be at least a 1 win player for the minimum at that position in Chris Dickerson and has reasonable upside, it simply makes no sense to go out and spend a few million bucks on a guy who has a ceiling that projects no better and who has a very, very low floor.

    After the Patterson debacle last year, frankly it would be laughable to spend a few million on Taveras this year. Albert Einstein would call it insane.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    We have a GM who likes small ball and that is what he is doing to the Reds. He has one power stroke in the lineup when he was in St. Louis and Big Mac could hit the ball a long way. He was surrounded by small ball players.
    1998 The Cardinals had Ron Gant who hit 26 HR in less than 400 at bats and slugged .493, Ray Lankford who hit 31 HR and slugged .540, Brian Jordan who hit 25 HR and slugged .534 to go along with McGwire who hit 70.

    1999 The Cardinals had Fernando Tatis hit 34 HR and slug .553 and Ray Lankford slug .493. They also had a losing season that year.

    2000 The Cardinals had Tatis slug .491, Lankford slug .508, Jim Edmonds slug .583 and JD Drew slug .479 along with McGwire.

    2001 had Pujols, Drew, Edmonds and Lankford all slug .490 or higher as well as MCGwire.

    The main thing there is to note that the only time they had a losing year with McGwire was when they didn't have other big boppers in the lineup.


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