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View Poll Results: Should Willy Tavares be a Red in 2009?

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  • Yes

    28 21.88%
  • No

    100 78.13%
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Thread: Willy Taveras

  1. #106
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I guess there is always a stat that will work for any side of an argument.
    Since I know you were curious, Wily Mo Pena's statistic for that particular metric is 16.12 BB per PA.

    It's difficult to maintain production from year to year with that kind of walk total unless you are a total genetic freak when it comes to putting the ball in play.
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  3. #107
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Wait... first it was Bowden, then O'Brien and then Krivsky... now Jocketty is no longer capable of running the Reds?
    I don't think the Jock has suddenly become an incompetent boob. He's just had the luxury of having a manager that could wring the most out of players, even the ones that left fans scratching their heads when first acquired.

    Now....not so much.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 12-17-2008 at 02:06 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  4. #108
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    He may have the speed but he really isn't a good defender overall.
    not the point, you can't be a good CF in Coors without great speed. It is a prerequisite for Coors, which it is not for GABP.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #109
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    not the point, you can't be a good CF in Coors without great speed. It is a prerequisite for Coors, which it is not for GABP.
    I know what you're saying. My point was that he still wasn't a good defender at Coors, even with his great speed.

    Question for you - do you think Spilborghs will be able to handle CF for the Rocks this season? He doesn't have real good speed.

  6. #110
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Since I know you were curious, Wily Mo Pena's statistic for that particular metric is 16.12 BB per PA.

    It's difficult to maintain production from year to year with that kind of walk total unless you are a total genetic freak when it comes to putting the ball in play.
    I'm just commenting on how there's always something.

    Willy Taveras' 2007 is a fluke because of his BABIP. However, many posters love the idea of Bradley because he can mash, and they are high off his 2008 career season. However, they fail to see that his BABIP was even higher than the 2007 Taveras metric.

    But that's ok because his career line is _____. But when it is shown that Juan Rivera, who many think is a waste of time, is somewhat similar, then that doesn't matter because of his walk rate. Add in the fact that Bradley will probably require a more serious committment, then it might be a wash.

    A lot of times there is one stat that can either "prove" or "disprove" a theory. Kind of gets old after a while.

  7. #111
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Wait... first it was Bowden, then O'Brien and then Krivsky... now Jocketty is no longer capable of running the Reds?
    That's right. While a bunch of guys off the street could do it. Amazing!
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #112
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Milton Bradley (career): 8.51 PA per BB
    Juan Rivera (career): 15.45 PA ber BB

    I know which of those two I'd put my money on maintaining an acceptable level of production over the course of a multi-year contract, looking at just numbers alone.
    Dave Parker - 1 bb every 15 PA's

    Carl Yastrzemski - 1 bb every 7.5 PA's

  9. #113
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A lot of times there is one stat that can either "prove" or "disprove" a theory. Kind of gets old after a while.
    Or it could be that each player has a different skill set and there's a number of variables that go into evaluating a player. One specific stat for player X may tell us a lot, while the same stat for a different player tells us very little. And you still have to evaluate the entire game: hitting, base running, defense, etc meaning you still have to pull back from micro to macro to make a judgement. And that's before you even get to contracts & money.

    Kookie stuff, I know.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 12-17-2008 at 02:32 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  10. #114
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Juan Rivera's career line is .284/.331/.468. And he is treated like an infectious disease while Bradley is a monster.

    Go figure.
    That's why Juan Rivera is, and should be treated like an infectious disease.

    Difference of .47 between AVG and OBP? Awesome. If Juan Rivera could take a walk, then he wouldn't be treated like an infectious disease.

  11. #115
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    That's why Juan Rivera is, and should be treated like an infectious disease.

    Difference of .47 between AVG and OBP? Awesome. If Juan Rivera could take a walk, then he wouldn't be treated like an infectious disease.
    Juan Rivera's career numbers would put him on base 199 times for every 600 PAs.

    Bradley would get on base 23 more times.

    With slugging being technically even, it seems like they are more similar than you'd think.

  12. #116
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    That's why Juan Rivera is, and should be treated like an infectious disease.

    Difference of .47 between AVG and OBP? Awesome. If Juan Rivera could take a walk, then he wouldn't be treated like an infectious disease.
    Not exactly, because Rivera's skillset isn't like that of most guys with a similar difference. He doesn't swing and miss as much, while still having power. He isn't Brandon Phillips. He isn't Carlos Lee either. He is somewhere in the middle. There aren't many guys like him, but he gets lumped into a group of guys that aren't really on the same level of him.

  13. #117
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Juan Rivera and Willy Taveras are 2 guys I want the Reds to stay far far away from.

    Milton Bradley, however, I want the Reds to sign sign sign.


    Bradley has offensive value to offset his defense.

    Taveras arguably (and this might be a stretch) has defensive value to offset his offense.

    Rivera is a summation of negative value of both offense and defense.

  14. #118
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Juan Rivera and Willy Taveras are 2 guys I want the Reds to stay far far away from.

    Milton Bradley, however, I want the Reds to sign sign sign.


    Bradley has offensive value to offset his defense.

    Taveras arguably (and this might be a stretch) has defensive value to offset his offense.

    Rivera is a summation of negative value of both offense and defense.
    Why do you think that Bradley has such tremendous offensive value? I think he is becoming somewhat overrated.

  15. #119
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Juan Rivera's career numbers would put him on base 199 times for every 600 PAs.

    Bradley would get on base 23 more times.

    With slugging being technically even, it seems like they are more similar than you'd think.
    Milton Bradley has equaled or bested his career OBP in each of the last three seasons -- in the last two seasons, by a substantial margin.

    Juan Rivera has failed to equal or best his career OBP in 3 of the previous four seasons (admittedly, his leg injury plays a part with this).

    If you're going just on the basis that both guys will play to their career averages, the debate is close. If you look at the recent history of each ballplayer, it's Bradley in a landslide. The question becomes: will Rivera, at age 30, ever replicate his .310 / .362 / .525 season from 2005, or will he settle into the player he was in 2004 and 2008 -- a sub-.320 OBP guy that is a threat to dip below the .300 mark?

    Simply put, that's not a gamble I want the Reds taking for the next 2 to 3 years. That's why Rivera is a "stay far, far away" in my book.
    Championships Matter.
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  16. #120
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Milton Bradley has equaled or bested his career OBP in each of the last three seasons -- in the last two seasons, by a substantial margin.
    MB played a combined 157 games in 2005-2006. In 2007, he had a BABIP of .388.

    MB was DFA'ed from Oakland in 2007 and was then dealt to SD, where his season ended when he tore his ACL after going after an umpire.

    He then went to Texas, where he played in ballpark notorious for pumping up the home team's stats. His numbers were no different. He also played the vast majority of his season as a DH.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Juan Rivera has failed to equal or best his career OBP in 3 of the previous four seasons (admittedly, his leg injury plays a part with this).
    Agreed, and agreed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    If you're going just on the basis that both guys will play to their career averages, the debate is close. If you look at the recent history of each ballplayer, it's Bradley in a landslide. The question becomes: will Rivera, at age 30, ever replicate his .310 / .362 / .525 season from 2005, or will he settle into the player he was in 2004 and 2008 -- a sub-.320 OBP guy that is a threat to dip below the .300 mark?
    Recent history might project a landslide, if the following were true:

    • Cincy used a DH
    • Bradley were to stay healthy all season
    • Cincy played in Arlington
    • Bradley were to hit close to .400 on balls in play, again


    While Rivera has some questions, so does Bradley. But for both it is difficult to look at only the recent history to project what might happen this year. And it is even more difficult to assess when you factor in likely committment you will need to make to both ballplayers.

    MB will likely see a dip in production compared to 2008 where Rivera will likely see production rise over the same time period. The only question is whether the gap will close a little or a lot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Simply put, that's not a gamble I want the Reds taking for the next 2 to 3 years. That's why Rivera is a "stay far, far away" in my book.
    If Bradley is "buy, buy, buy", as some might say, I can't see Rivera being the polar opposite.


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