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Thread: Doc on Juan Rivera

  1. #1
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    Doc on Juan Rivera

    Hadn't seen this posted yet. It's from Paul Daugherty's blog.

    Juan Rivera is the guy who best fits the Reds philosophy and budget. If he wants to play here, he'll open the season in Cincinnati's outfield.
    Say what you want about Doc, but he does have some sources with the Reds. Sounds like Rivera may be Plan A.

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    I had much higher hopes than Juan Rivera for our offseason, but a juan rivera pickup is a very Reds thing to do...

    As optimist, maybe he'll return to glory and be just what we need, but I would prefer a less riskier option...

    If Juan Rivera becomes our RHed LFer, then I hope this comes paired w/ a Baldelli signing to make it a bit easier to swallow.
    Last edited by hippie07; 12-18-2008 at 03:45 PM.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Juan Rivera getting 650 PA's in LF in 09 puts the Reds another -25 offensive runs (based on his career numbers) in the hole from 08.

    That means they need to make up something like 200 runs to sniff the playoffs in 09.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Juan Rivera getting 650 PA's in LF in 09 puts the Reds another -25 offensive runs (based on his career numbers) in the hole from 08.

    That means they need to make up something like 200 runs to sniff the playoffs in 09.
    How many defensive runs does he gain you over last season? I'm guessing it's not 25.

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    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Two weeks ago, I would have loved this news. Then I read RedsZone. FWIW, here is Dave Cameron's view on Rivera. It lifts my spirits a bit; I usually really respect Cameron's opinion.

    Edit: I think this is basically similar to dougdirt's side of the argument he's been having with Cyclone et al on the Baldelli/Rivera/Burrell thread, so sorry to everyone if it is redundant here.

    Two years ago, Rivera hit .310/.362/.525 for the Angels, racking up a 2.45 WPA/LI mark that made him a very solid contributor to Anaheim’s offense. Then, injuries struck, and the last two years have been something of a wash. He managed just 324 plate appearances between the two seasons, and the missed time cost him his shot at a regular gig in LA. Now 30 and hitting free agency, it’s unlikely that a team is going to be giving him a multi-year contract without proving he can play everyday again, but if we look at his skills, he’s still a pretty solid hitter.

    Rivera’s signature skill has always been his power, and that hasn’t disappeared. Even with the health problems and limited playing time, he posted a .191 ISO last year. When you look a little deeper, there’s even more reasons for optimism. During the first three months of the season, Rivera managed all of 66 plate appearances in 30 games. He barely made it on the field from April through June, and he wasn’t giving the Angels any reason to put him in the line-up more often, struggling to a .177/.227/.226 line. He had three extra base hits, all doubles, and simply wasn’t hitting. However, Gary Matthews Jr’s struggles created an opportunity for him to play a bit more often, from July on, he showed that the old Juan Rivera still existed.

    In the final three months of the season, Rivera hit .268/.299/.505, and while the OBP isn’t exactly impressive, the 22 extra base hits (12 of which were home runs) show that Rivera’s still got some juice in his swing. His overly aggressive approach at the plate will always make him a low on base guy, but that kind of power is still valuable. Even with the .299 OBP, Rivera’s WPA/LI over the final three months was -.07, making him essentially a league average hitter.

    Now, if that was Rivera’s ceiling, he’d be a nifty platoon corner OF/DH type, and that would be the end of it. But Rivera was a league average hitter while hitting .270. As a guy with both good contact and power, Rivera’s got the kind of skills that could allow him to hit .290 to .310. If you don’t strike out, and you hit the ball over the wall with some frequency, it’s pretty hard to post a low batting average, thanks to the sheer quantity of chances you have for hits. Rivera managed to hit .269 over the final three months despite a .242 batting average on balls in play. That’s extraordinarily low, even for a guy hitting a ton of flyballs.

    If we assume that Rivera’s true talent BABIP is more in the .280 range (it’s .292 for his career, but we’ll knock it down a bit for age and injuries), and the rest of his skills remain in tact, he’s a .290 to .300 hitter. Even with his aggressive approach, .300/.340/.500 isn’t out of the question.

    Rivera may never get back to his 2006 prime, but he’s certainly better than he’s shown the last two years, and there’s no reason to think he’s washed up at age 30. For a team looking for a right-handed power bat who makes good contact and offers some upside without requiring a long term, big money deal, Rivera’s a good bet. He’ll never be a star, but he could be the kind of useful role player that is picked up cheaply that championship teams need.
    Last edited by RedEye; 12-18-2008 at 03:58 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Juan Rivera getting 650 PA's in LF in 09 puts the Reds another -25 offensive runs (based on his career numbers) in the hole from 08.

    That means they need to make up something like 200 runs to sniff the playoffs in 09.
    As it has been discussed ad nauseum, it might be a little unfair to project Rivera on his career numbers. It took a while for him to get a regular gig and, when he finally did, he had a good year. Then he broke his leg and worked his way back last year.

    Risk/reward type guy. Sure I'd rather have other guys than him (i.e. Burrell), but if Cincy is looking at a bargain type player, they can do a lot worse. At least he has a decent ceiling.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    if the Reds want to give him a 1 year deal I have no problem with that. He can be a bridge to the future and he will just be another hacker in a lineup full of them.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  9. #8
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    At least he has a decent ceiling.
    And an awful, awful basement, if his contact rate dips and he starts striking out more.

    Quite simply, his ceiling isn't high enough to warrant the financial risk of a multi-year deal.
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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Humm.....a guy dependent on his batting average and contact to have any value being managed by a guy who preaches aggressiveness and abhors clogging the bases.

    No way that can go wrong.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Doc? How does that guy have a job?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Humm.....a guy dependent on his batting average and contact to have any value being managed by a guy who preaches aggressiveness and abhors clogging the bases.

    No way that can go wrong.
    You're full of snark today. I love it.

  13. #12
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    You know, the more I think about it it, I hope the Reds sign Rivera. It then makes my decision easy whether to renew or cancel my season tickets for next season.
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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Rivera and WT in the OF together?

    That looks like were we are headed.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    You know, the more I think about it it, I hope the Reds sign Rivera. It then makes my decision easy whether to renew or cancel my season tickets for next season.
    Taveras and Rivera in CF and LF. That should make you run to the ticket office, pronto.

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    Re: Doc on Juan Rivera

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Taveras and Rivera in CF and LF. That should make you run to the ticket office, pronto.
    Don't forget Kepp at short.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


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