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Thread: Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!

  1. #76
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    Re: Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!

    Quote Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07 View Post
    Over the past few years, offensively they have been very close.
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&lastName=Dunn
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...stName=burrell

    But I think Dunn has been slightly better. Burrell's low BABIP to LD% is intriguing and he could have a great year next year in GABP, but I would still say that Dunn being 3 years younger gives him a slight edge in my book. Also, I got the Bill James handbook for 2008 for Christmas today and Adam Dunn was a +6 base runner and Burrell was a -3 runner (what amazes me is that Brandon Phillips is only +2) I'm not sure how those numbers translate into runs, but Dunn was actually relatively good on the base paths last year.
    There is a phrase called "running yourself into outs", BP is really good at that.
    When you only get on base 30% of the time, and then you get thrown out 30% of the time you try to steal a base, your speed isn't really helping you...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009


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  3. #77
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    Re: Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Very few assumptions actually..
    haha that was funny.



    Dunn is not what this team needs right now. Dunn was just as bad as griffey was in the clubhouse. 2 peas in a pod.

    The reds will be on there way up come next year. Just watch

  4. #78
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Here is my take on the Reds lineup next year.

    Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross
    Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson
    Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.
    Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
    Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.
    Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.
    Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

    That is 130 runs better than last year. If they can replace Dunn in LF with a league average LF, that would have them lose 20 runs, so they would still be 110 runs better than last year That puts them at 814 runs for next year, which would have been the
    second best in the league, and above .500 with the same runs against as last year.

    Assuming that the rest of the pitching staff has the same numbers as last year (Harang won't be as bad, Volquez won't be as good), and you replace Fogg et all with Owing with his career numbers, that saves 44 runs. That would have the Reds with a 814-756 run differential which according to the Pyth. theory, leads to 86 wins.

    So even with a league average LF, the Reds could possibly win 86 games next year, which would definitely keep them in contention for a wild card spot.
    Now with Taveras signed to play CF and leadoff, nevermind about what I said about the Reds being able to improve their offense from last year.

  5. #79
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    Re: Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!

    Lets see, Dunn was a horrible fielder, struck out constantly, rarely got clutch hits, and, at one point, went years without a sacrifice fly RBI. I'm not exaggerating, he went several years without a sac fly. But he hit pretty homeruns I guess.


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