In order for the Reds to duplicate their 2008 numbers, they have to replace about 2,600 plate appearances with a line of .242/.330/.408. In theory, that shouldn't be too difficult.
Q. Can a combination of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan put up an OPS of at least .678?Code:NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG Paul Bako 299 65 11 2 6 34 1 3 1 5 .217 .299 .328 Dave Ross 134 31 9 0 3 32 1 5 1 4 .231 .381 .366 Javier Valentin 129 33 8 0 4 14 0 0 1 0 .256 .326 .411 ------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 562 129 28 2 13 80 2 8 3 9 .230 .322 .356
A. Yes, absolutely. Out of the catcher position, I would expect a somewhat significant improvement from the 2008 numbers. Ryan Hanigan will hopefully continue to improve, and there's a decent chance that Hernandez will improve upon his numbers from last year. Wilkin Castillo and Craig Tatum aren't great hitters, but they couldn't do much worse than Paul Bako if they were given the opportunity that Paul Bako received.
Q. Can the Reds replace the outfielders who put up a combined .747 OPS?Code:NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG Jolbert Cabrera 115 29 6 1 3 8 2 0 1 1 .252 .310 .400 Adam Dunn 373 87 14 0 32 74 6 0 5 6 .233 .373 .528 Corey Patterson 366 75 17 2 10 16 1 5 4 0 .205 .238 .344 Ryan Freel 131 39 8 0 0 8 1 2 1 0 .298 .340 .359 Ken Griffey 359 88 20 1 15 61 2 0 3 13 .245 .355 .432 ------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 1344 318 65 4 60 167 12 7 14 20 .237 .322 .425
A. At the moment, no, but by the end of the off season, most likely. If Norris Hopper or Laynce Nix is an opening day starter, you can go ahead and write the Reds in at fifth or sixth place in the NL Central. That's not going to happen, though. Jay Bruce and Norris Hopper should improve, and a Chris Dickerson/Norris Hopper platoon would probably OPS around .740, but the left field position is the biggest question. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Jocketty to find an outfielder who can OPS around .800, which could potentially lead the Reds to an offensive improvement over last year. One other thing to note is that whoever they put in left field, aside from Pat Burrell, will play better defense than Dunn, so even if the new acquisition isn't putting up Dunn-like numbers, the gap won't be as large as it seems.
Q. Can the Reds make up for a .763 OPS from various infield and bench positions?Code:NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG Scott Hatteberg 52 9 3 0 0 7 0 0 2 0 .173 .262 .231 Andy Phillips 73 17 3 0 3 6 1 0 0 0 .233 .300 .397 Jerry Hairston 261 85 20 2 6 23 3 8 2 0 .326 .384 .487 Juan Castro 10 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .091 .000 ------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 396 111 26 2 9 37 4 8 4 0 .280 .339 .424
A. Maybe. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion might improve on their 2008 production. Brandon Phillips will probably have similar production. As for shortstop, Jeff Keppinger probably had what will be his worst season over the next five seasons. Not only did he have a poor year offensively, he played poor defense. If Alex Gonzalez plays anything like the AGon of 2007, the Reds should see a big improvement at shortstop. All in all, the Reds probably won't be able to replace the career numbers Hairston put up. Defensively, though, the Reds need to find a way to make up for it. If Alex Gonzalez's knee prevents him from playing average defense, and if Jeff Keppinger gets significant playing time as a shortstop, the Reds will have probably downgraded their infield production from last year. However, if the Reds find a shortstop who can play average defense with a .730 OPS, which is difficult but not impossible, they will have improved from last year.
All in all, here is what the Reds need to replace to equal their production from the 2008 season:
Votto, Encarnacion, and Bruce are still young and improving and will likely help bridge the gap. Hernandez taking away Bako's at-bats and Dickerson taking away Patterson's at-bats should make a huge difference. Jeff Keppinger hopefully won't be the starting shortstop, but if he is, he can't do much worse than he did in 2008 because he had some bad luck and is simply too talented. I'm not expecting much from Alex Gonzalez, but if he somehow returns to form, it will be a huge addition to the team.Code:TOTAL AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG ------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 2302 558 119 8 82 284 18 23 21 29 .242 .330 .408
If the Reds want to repeat their offensive production from 2008, it looks to me that they just need to find a decent-to-good left fielder. However, the 2008 offense was far from impressive, and if they want to win in 2009, they will need to make a big upgrade at shortstop as well.