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Thread: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

  1. #211
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    As soon as I get a free 10-month stretch, i'll do that. Seriously though, I have read a LOT of threads on that. What's your point? Are you seriously going to say that a walk-based OBP will remain high when a hitter slumps? Walks do not remain consistent throughout a season. They fluctuate just as hits do.
    Actually over the course of a season, BB's are remarkably consistent.

    Willy Taveras BB totals over the last 4 seasons: 25, 34, 21, 36.

    Consistant and extremely poor. By comparison Adam Dunn, since someone brought him up: 114, 112, 101, 122.

    Dunn had 6 more BB's last year than Taveras has in his career.

    BB totals from month to month can fluctuate just like BA can. However, high BB guys are less susceptible to slumps, because even when they aren't hitting the secondary skillset of taking a BB is less affected. Taveras doesn't have that secondary skillset. Two things have to fail for a Dunn to hurt the club. All Taveras has to do is be Taveras. His whole game is BA. When that slumps, he's just an out machine that offers nothing on defense.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #212
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    As soon as I get a free 10-month stretch, i'll do that. Seriously though, I have read a LOT of threads on that. What's your point? Are you seriously going to say that a walk-based OBP will remain high when a hitter slumps? Walks do not remain consistant throughout a season. They fluctuate just as hits do.
    All I'm saying is that OBP > BA

    Somewhere you have gotten the idea that OBP=walks.

    it doesn't
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  4. #213
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Walks don't advance Runners? Hmn...

    How many Baserunners do you think were advanced by bunt Singles?
    I dont get this at all???

  5. #214
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    You might want to put away the rolleyes emoticon. Over the last three seasons, by month, the correlation between Adam Dunn's monthly BA and IsoD (OBP minus BA) was -0.49 with an IsoD Standard Deviation of only .037. Dunn's two lowest IsoD months occurred when he hit .287 and .310. Dunn's three highest IsoD months happened when he hit .157, .217 and .161.

    That's basically the "slump proofing" effect Ron's talking about and only once during any month did Dunn's OBP slip below .328. Only four times out of 18 months did Dunn produce an OBP lower than .352. BA-driven OBP players like Taveras don't have the ability to do that because they're doing nothing but making Outs when they slump. Ron's not wrong about this.
    And that's pointing at ONE player. Dunn. I wasn't talking about one player or even two. But rather, in general. Dunn's walks were more consistant...he draws quite a few intentional walks (and even more intentional pitched around walks). Those don't have to do with plate discipline. Those have to do with his scary power and the fact that there was nobody surrounding him in the lineup that could effectively move a runner around. In general, walks fluctuate.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  6. #215
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    BS. Simply put....BS. I don't have to look at numbers to prove it. I watch the games. Players will go a week without drawing a walk even if they normally walk at a high rate.
    I once saw Juan Castro OPS over .900 for an entire month.

    He was still a crap player that had a hot month.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #216
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    --Are the Reds still interested in Jerry Hairston Jr.? "Yes. He could end up being the left fielder if we can't get that RBI man, which might be hard to do at this point. We may have a different type of team, where we rely on speed and defense and try to manufacture runs. We've still got some guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark -- (Joey) Votto, (Jay) Bruce and (Edwin) Encarnacion. But we're going to a little bit different kind of team."
    Its time to turn my computer off, this guy just went all bold, leave you guys to yourself.

  8. #217
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Sir Charles,

    What stat correlates to runs at a higher rate, batting average or On Base Percentage?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  9. #218
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    After letting this sink in more, I can not underscore how mad I am about this.

    Go read the comments of the idiots on the Hal McCoy blog. They don't get it.
    http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/con....html#comments
    Well, the first guy was pretty close, IMO:

    Frickin’ wonderful. Corey Patterson 2.0
    Then it went downhill from there.

  10. #219
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    And that's pointing at ONE player. Dunn. I wasn't talking about one player or even two. But rather, in general. Dunn's walks were more consistant...he draws quite a few intentional walks (and even more intentional pitched around walks). Those don't have to do with plate discipline. Those have to do with his scary power and the fact that there was nobody surrounding him in the lineup that could effectively move a runner around. In general, walks fluctuate.
    Wily Mo Pena may have more power than Dunn.

    Never saw him BB 100 times in a season though.

    You seem to think taking a BB is not a repeatable skill, but a circumstance of other things. You are incorrect.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #220
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    All I'm saying is that OBP > BA

    Somewhere you have gotten the idea that OBP=walks.

    it doesn't
    No, I don't think that in the least. I think that if I see a player with a .350 OBP that's hitting at a .310 clip that people here will say he stinks because he doesn't get on base enough. Because they're thinking he "should" be at .400 OBP if he just learned how to take a walk. I just don't see that rationalization here when a player has a walk-driven OBP. Instead of saying he doesn't hit enough, they'll say his OBP is fine because it's "slump-proof" or they'll point to his other stats and ignore the BA. Is it right? No. But it's still there.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #221
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Thread is a rehash of years of debates with all the usual overstatement. By the way, Taveras wasn't released, he was nontendered. Rockies didn't want to arbitrate with him.

    He will be pretty good defensively, will steal bases and drive the opposition crazy, will hit for no power. So the issue is whether he will get on base at an acceptable clip.

    Some years he hasn't, some he has. We won't know until they play the games. Nobody knows the answer, not the genius baseball writers, nor anyone else.

  13. #222
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Sir Charles,

    What stat correlates to runs at a higher rate, batting average or On Base Percentage?
    OBP. I'm not arguing that. I'm not saying that OBP is a poor stat or a bad stat. I'm saying that OBP does NOT show the whole picture. I'm saying that every OBP point is not created equal and that's what many think. If I've got a man on second, player A gets a single and player B takes a walk. OBP gets adjusted the same for each...but which was more valuable? In general, player A was.

    Wow, this got thrown off topic rather quickly. Big surprise.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  14. #223
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    All of you are failing to see what Jocketty is doing here. He has stated that the Tampa Rays would be a good model to follow, so Jocketty is trying to get us in the best possible draft pick position for several years to come. The Rays won the pennant last year. The strategy is fool-proof.

    Good job, Walt.

  15. #224
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    No, I don't think that in the least. I think that if I see a player with a .350 OBP that's hitting at a .310 clip that people here will say he stinks because he doesn't get on base enough. Because they're thinking he "should" be at .400 OBP if he just learned how to take a walk. I just don't see that rationalization here when a player has a walk-driven OBP. Instead of saying he doesn't hit enough, they'll say his OBP is fine because it's "slump-proof" or they'll point to his other stats and ignore the BA. Is it right? No. But it's still there.
    No. A player with a history of repeating .310/.350 I'd at least accept. Call me when Taveras does it more than once. He didn't do it more than once in a park designed for hitters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Thread is a rehash of years of debates with all the usual overstatement. By the way, Taveras wasn't released, he was nontendered. Rockies didn't want to arbitrate with him.

    He will be pretty good defensively, will steal bases and drive the opposition crazy, will hit for no power. So the issue is whether he will get on base at an acceptable clip.

    Some years he hasn't, some he has. We won't know until they play the games. Nobody knows the answer, not the genius baseball writers, nor anyone else.
    Not some years. once. once he had an acceptable OBP. one year in his entire career. He will not be pretty good defensively, because he's never been a good defender. And the Rockies didn't want to arbitrate with him because he wasn't worth it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #225
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Three of Willy T's four seasons he was in the 65 RC territory. (per 600 PA's) One season he was in the 85 RC territory (still below average for a CF by the way).

    Who wants to lay odds that he'll be in the 65 RC territory again?

    If he quacks like a duck, and swims like a duck....
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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