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Thread: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

  1. #751
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    It would be flat out shocking if Dickerson pumped out an .851 OPS next year.
    and it is flat out impossible that Taveras could produce an OPS over 800(probably even 750) ... no chance at all.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    IMO, this move wasn't made to improve the run differential.
    Then, by definition, it's a dumb move.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If Dickerson can't win the job from Tavaras in a fair competition, is it even worth sweating over his loss of playing time?
    Back here on planet earth, the reality is there will be no competition for CF. It's about as clear as can be they plan on Taveras being the starting CF.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    then there is no reason to do it ... absolutely none. Each addition had better be to likely get you closer to your goal.
    Sure, there's a reason. The Reds don't have enough OF to field a team.

    If Walt waits around until he's able to trade for a CF that is ML average, he might get one before the season starts.

    Walt still has enough roster flexiblity to add 2 major league OF if the opportunity presents itself. I hope the opportunity does present itself.

    This is much like the Josh Fogg signing last year (although hopefully not quite as bad). Sure, Fogg wasn't likely to be good, but the Reds were looking at a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and kids. No one knew if Belisle, Ceuto or Volquez would win the job, so it makes sense to sign a veteran pitcher for depth. Sadly, they had to settle for Fogg. A very quick look at Fogg's game log shows me that Fogg gave us a decent outing in 12 of his 22 games. Is that acceptable for a contender? No, because his bad outings were disasters. Did that help us make the playoffs? No. Did Fogg have any value at all? Yes, he did, because Fogg kept a worst pitcher in Belisle at AAA. Fogg also helped the team avoid rushing youngsters. I would've certainly prefered a much better pitcher than Fogg, but Fogg gave us about 80 innings for less than 2 million.

    Patterson was overpaid last year, but he also helped fill in innings and prevented us from having to call up Stubbs or another prospect up too early.
    Sure, we could've called up Stubbs and probably gotten similiar production, but is that a wise use of assets? IMO, no. We want to maximize Stubbs value .. both his trade value and long term playing value. We don't want to "Homer" him by calling him up early, having him be overwhelmed, burning up all his options, and destroying his trade value.

    The bottom line is that Walt has very few options, IMO. Teams need depth to make it through a 162 game season. Even if Dickerson plays great next year, he's not going to be able to start every game.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    how come Dickerson is still a prospect and Tavaras is washed up, when they are both the same age?
    Because Dickerson has 100 AB's while Taveras has 4 years of playing time. Dickersons future is unknown. Taveras, baring a miraculous conversion, is what he is going to be.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    What if he hits 40 homers and 35 triples?

    Since he's never once had a decent OBP and stolen base percentage in the same year (let alone score more runs than an average CF) yours is not a very relevant question.
    Is there any correlation between OBP and SB%? Why can't he have both?

    And I thought someone had mentioned at some point that the good/not good line of SB% is 75%. If so, he nailed that every year.

    Lastly, I've been told many times that runs scored is a team dependent stat. So I can't comment on a poor runs scored total as it isn't his fault.

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Taveras is your 2009 Cincinnati Reds CF. Dusty will bat him leadoff for the majority of games.
    Just like he did Patterson? (32 games leading off, 10 after Jay Bruce made an appearance.)
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Sure, there's a reason. The Reds don't have enough OF to field a team.
    They could easily do Bruce, Dickerson, Hopper, Stubbs and Dorn.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think you are rationalizing away what really happened. The Reds view WT as a legitimate starting outfielder, too.

    Here's Walt on the deal from Reds.com:
    .

    Walt has also acknowledged Tavaras' OBP problem, he also has used the word "potential leadoff hitter" in another quote.

    Sure, right now, Tavaras is tentatively the starting CF. Also, Walt has said that Dickerson and Hopper will now share LF. That is the plan right now, but it is not carved in stone and subject to change. If Tavaras stinks up the place, I'm sure he will lose his job, just as Patterson, Fogg, Belisle, and Maj did.

    I'm sure if you asked Walt, he'd say that Arroyo is now our #2 or #3 starting pitcher, but that doesn't mean he isn't shopping Arroyo on the trade market.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Is there any correlation between OBP and SB%? Why can't he have both?
    I don't know. Because he's a crappy baseball player?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    And I thought someone had mentioned at some point that the good/not good line of SB% is 75%. If so, he nailed that every year.
    75% is generally considered the minimum SB% to be effective. Some say 80%. He's come in just above 75% 3 out of four years (78ish IIRC). To me, that's called "neutral". Get that up to 85% or so on a consistent basis and then you're really helping your team. Just meeting the minimum requirement isn't all that impressive, especially in light of all his other flaws.

    Plus, as has been mentioned a billion times, his EqA (which includes base running) has only once been above average (and only .001 above average) once out of four years. Most of the time it's far below average.

    The guy is the definition of running fast and getting nowhere. He accomplishes nothing.

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Lastly, I've been told many times that runs scored is a team dependent stat. So I can't comment on a poor runs scored total as it isn't his fault.
    It MOST DEFINITELY is his fault. If he isn't on base it is 100% completely impossible for someone else to drive him in. Nearly 70% of the time he's not on base.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 12-29-2008 at 12:44 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I don't know. Because he's a crappy baseball player?
    Nice one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    75% is generally considered the minimum SB% to be effective. Some say 80%. He's come in just above 75% 3 out of four years (78ish IIRC). To me, that's called "neutral". Get that up to 85% or so on a consistent basis and then you're really helping your team. Just meeting the minimum requirement isn't all that impressive, especially in light of all his other flaws.
    Neutral and decent are pretty similar words. So he has had 2 seasons of decent OBP/SB%. Not awful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Plus, as has been mentioned a billion times, his EqA (which includes base running) has only once been above average (and only .001 above average) once out of four years. Most of the time it's far below average.

    The guy is the definition of running fast and getting nowhere. He accomplishes nothing.
    I'm not in love with the guy by any stretch.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    It MOST DEFINITELY is his fault. If he isn't on base it is 100% completely impossible for someone else to drive him in. Nearly 70% of the time he's not on base.
    If my math is correct, in his career Taveras has scored 41.9% of the time that he got on base. Adam Dunn has scored 38.6% of the time.

    More interestingly, non-HR times on base saw Taveras scoring at a 41.3% clip. Dunn was at 27.48%.

    I'm not comparing the two by any stretch, I just used Dunn as a barometer since he is the prototype OBP man. But it seems as if Taveras makes things happen on the basepaths. And Jocketty did say that he has the potential to be the leadoff man that they need if he can get on base consistently.

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    But it seems as if Taveras makes things happen on the basepaths.
    He "makes things happen" yet it doesn't show up in metrics like VORP, RAP, RAR, EqA, RC or even raw run totals.

    He's an empty suit.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    He "makes things happen" yet it doesn't show up in metrics like VORP, RAP, RAR, EqA, RC or even raw run totals.

    He's an empty suit.
    Couldn't care less about all all the cool metrics.

    1) He historically scores at a great clip when he gets on base.

    2) Walt believes that they can get him on base.

    3) Therefore he should score a lot if Walt is correct.

    FYI...Rickey Henderson scored roughly 43% of the time he got on base with a 39.6% of the non-HR variety.

    Get Willy on base and he will score.

  15. #764
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Get Willy on base and he will score.
    which really is the trick, especially when his history clearly displays he is lacking the ability.

    The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    which really is the trick, especially when his history clearly displays he is lacking the ability.
    700 PAs with a .325 OBP (which he has matched or exceeded in 75% of his seasons in the majors) while scoring at his career rate of 42% would give him 96 runs scored. Not awful.


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