Clemens was particularly astounding in 2005. A 1.87 ERA in 211+ IP? A 2.33 ERA in 115 innings at Minute Maid?Originally Posted by dougdirt
Why...that's...superhuman!
Clemens was particularly astounding in 2005. A 1.87 ERA in 211+ IP? A 2.33 ERA in 115 innings at Minute Maid?
Why...that's...superhuman!
YIKES! I'd say the majority of people would agree that AT BEST Stubbs and Dorn MIGHT be ready for a trial in the bigs....by September. And that's pushing it. No way in the world I'm going to depend upon Dickerson's 100 ab's, Stubbs 0 ab's, Dorn's 0 ab's and have Hopper be the veteran of the OF. Good lord no.
Okay. So we've established that Taveras won't hurt the club if they have a couple of .900 + OPS bats, a lockdown pen, and a freakishly unbelievable starting rotation.
Sign me up, dude.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
I don't think that really should come into play. What Dickerson did three years ago doesn't tell us what he is likely to do now because he is a different player. Taveras is still the same player he was 2-3-4 years ago. Look at their respective skills.
Dickerson - Strikes out a lot, walks a lot, plays good defense and hits for power (for CF) and struggles against lefties while beating up righties.
Taveras - Doesn't strike out a ton, doesn't walk at all, defense is above average-ish, has a strong arm, lots of speed, hits for no power and relies on 60 infield hits a year to provide any type of offensive skills and hits both RHP and LHP the same, but neither is good.
Did I miss something?
If I didn't, then Dickerson is a far better option than Taveras.
I would suggest Danny Dorn could be ready for a trial in the Bigs in April. The guy doesn't have any offensive question marks other than he struggles to hit for power against lefties. He doesn't strike out a ton, he walks plenty, he hits for a LOT of power and has a career .915 OPS in the minor leagues including an OPS of .944 over his 495 AA PA. Below is his AA stat line:
Stubbs needs more time in the minors. I am not so sure that Dorn does. The guy has just obliterated AA.Code:Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS AA 495 426 121 27 3 29 57 107 .284 .378 .566 .944
Is there anyone here who DOESN'T think Dickerson is a far better option than Taveras? The problem is that being an option to Taveras isn't the question. We had TWO holes in the OF to fill. And we had ONE player to fill it with. Dickerson. Hopper is still a question mark in terms of his health. I like Dickerson, I really do, but he's not good enough to cover both CF AND LF. So, we got somebody we could afford who Walt thought fit our needs in some measures. So, with Dickerson & Taveras on the team...of the two, who plays where? Taveras in center, Dickerson in left. Once we get more players, we'll re-adjust accordingly. But for now...we needed a live body to put in that rather gaping hole in the OF.
Would I have preferred it be somebody else? You betcha. But I think if that was doable at this time...it would've already been done.
I partially agree. But with the potential they both have...I want them to have a full season at AAA under their belts. Dorn may be good, but he's not good enough to nearly leapfrog AAA completely.
I don't care if we had three outfield spots to fill and Dickerson was the ONLY outfielder on the team currently, he still should have been the center fielder until someone else better could be brought in. Willy Taveras doesn't solve any problem. He likely just left the Reds with a below average center fielder and potentially a below average left fielder rather than the Reds having an above average center fielder and needing to find a left fielder still.
You're right. Taveras was Houston's centerfielder in 2005 and they made the Series. But that could never happen again. It's inconceivable that another team could be so strong that it could make the Series with WT as the main centerfielder. Once in a lifetime fluke.
(Wait, seems like he's made the Series twice in his four year career. But Colorado in 2007 must have been just another superteam.)
We are going to have to disagree. AAA is for fine tuning. Dorn doesn't have many weaknesses that need fine tuning. He doesn't have K or BB problems. He hits for a ton of power. Tons of players skip AAA completely. Some players need it. Some don't. I don't think Dorn really needs it. His weaknesses aren't likely to be fixed by spending time in AAA, because he doesn't really have much of a weakness.
the 2009 Reds are toast ... the FO just isn't willing to admit it.
It makes a big difference -- even if he only scores in 30% of those additional 30 OB opportunities, he adds another 10 runs to the Run Differential. If you skew towards the traditional methods of following baseball, those 10 runs could potentially change the outcome of 10 games. Those numbers increase as his OBP goes up. Push towards .400, and you're suddenly talking 50 additional OB opportunities.
His 30 additional OB events also brings the next batter to the plate 30 additional times with a runner on base, adding potential scoring opportunties for that batter as well (which further improves the Run Differential as well, by giving them additional PAs to add runs).
Look at it this way -- if you hit Joey Votto or Jay Bruce second (throw out the "SS always bats #2" for one minute), wouldn't it be great to get either one of them an additional 30 PAs with a runner on? More PAs almost always equal to more runs. The Reds need that.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
Instead of committing one logical fallacy after another, it would actually behoove yourself to do some ... you know ... actual research and determine just how the 2005 Astros and 2007 Rockies were built and precisely where their value originated from.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
The Rockies had both an above average offense and an above average pitching staff. The Rockies had 3 hitters with a 129 or better OPS+ on that team and 500+ AB's. They then had two other bats with Tulo and Atkins with 500+ Ab's of 108 and 112 OPS+ numbers.
Their pitching staff from 2007 had a 111 ERA+. Their worst starter had a 97 ERA+. Harang, Arroyo and Cueto all failed to match that last year. Their top 7 bullpen arms (Fuentes, Corpas, Affeldt, Hawkins, Lugo, Buchholz and Herges) combined for a 3.33 ERA over 448.7 innings in Coors Field.
So they had three big time bats in their lineup and a dominant bullpen coupled with an above average starting staff.
The Reds might have that kind of rotation. They likely have a really good bullpen, but not that good and are missing two other big time bats.
Last edited by dougdirt; 12-29-2008 at 03:13 PM.
I think a light clearly clicked for Dickerson last year and then he got hurt before he was able to be tested at the big league level. So there's clearly good and bad( or at least unproven) there.
According to JinAZ, Taveras is a better option in CF, whereas Dickerson plays average to below average defense in CF.
Prior to last year, Taveras' OBP was making progress from .325 to .333. to .367. Now maybe it takes a freakish BABIP to maintain his OBP at .367 but no one has shown me anything that leads me to believe he's more likely to OBP at .308 than .340.
Also, it does appear as though a light may have clicked for him on the basepaths, if he's able to steal half the time he gets on base, and he gets on base at a .330 to .340 clip, he could be well average. Perhaps sad that this is the best I hope for, but if we had an average CF who played good defense and got a bopper for LF, I'd at least be interested in how the team can come together.
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