Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[REDREAD]

I don't think that really should come into play. What Dickerson did three years ago doesn't tell us what he is likely to do now because he is a different player. Taveras is still the same player he was 2-3-4 years ago. Look at their respective skills.
.

If they are the same age, how come Dickerson's 400 AB in 2008 (only 100 AB at the ML level) are considered a cause for optimism? You must admit, the rest of Dickerson's minor league career is pretty unremarkable.

In contrast, Wily had a respectful 3 seasons out of 4, yet he's dismissed as crap, with no chance to improve his OBP next year. He's clearly "on the decline", despite being the same age.

[dougdirt]

Dickerson had a few bad spells of OBP in the minors, along with a few good ones. On this thread, some have said that a CF leadoff type should have at least a 350 OBP or he is hurting the team.

In 2005, Dickerson posted a 325 OBP in the FSL. In contrast, whipping boy Tavaras posted a 325 OBP in the MAJOR LEAGUES.

2006: Dickerson posted 355 OBP in AA. Tavaras 333, but again, that is in the major leagues, which is much tougher than AA.

2007: Dickerson had a 353 OBP combined in AA and AAA. Tavaras had a 367 OBP in the MAJORS.

Basically, the two players are the same age (Tavaras is only 4 months older). Tavaras was in the major leagues when Dickerson was still in A ball.
If Dickerson was called up to the majors at age 22, there's no doubt he'd post much worse numbers than Tavaras did.

Dickerson put up solid numbers in 2008. He had about 100 AB in the majors and 349 AB in AAA. But is that real or a fluke? Can Dickerson maintain that if he is one of the starting OF? I am not convinced.

I'm not saying Taveras is the second coming, but I think he's got a decent shot of posting a better OBP than Dickerson next year. I just don't understand why Dickerson is so highly thought of while Tavaras is crucified. Both are pretty much crap shoots in my opinion. Dickerson had a nice AAA season last year, but he darn well better, since he was playing AAA ball when he was 26 years old.

So, in summary, I don't see why Tavaras is discounted so much, since he was called up at a very early age. Seems like he has as much chance as Dickerson to continue to develop. I agree that Tavaras has little power upside, but at the same time, Dickerson might fall off the earth next year.
That's the main benefit I see to signing Tavaras, depth.

Again, it's easy to sit back and say the Reds should only make moves that increase their run differential, but in reality, the Reds need to fill a roster and don't have a whole lot of options. Signing a second option at CF that allows Walt more energy to focus on other needs this club has. Despite what people fear from Dusty, there's no evidence to show that Dusty doesn't play the best player available. Remember it was Dusty that lobbied for Stanton to be released.

The main difference is that Willy Taveras uses the exact same skill set and tools that he used when he was 23 and 24 and 25 and 26. Chris Dickerson did not have the same skill/talent base at age 26 that he did when he was 23 and 24. His power developed and his walk rates also stayed consistently good despite seeing better pitching.

So comparing a 23 and 24 year old Dickerson to what we should expect from a 27 year old Dickerson isn't the correct way to go about it because he isn't using the same approach/skill/talent.

Willy Taveras is on the other hand using the exact same approach/skill/talent as a 23 year old version of himself.

[TRF]

Wasn't trying to make a case for Taveras at all. It is obviously quite important to get on base.

However, I think a lot of people want to use 2008 as the barometer while discounting 2007. No one looks at 2005-2006, which could be the midpoint of his talents.

If this guy can get on base in the .330-.340 range, he'll be ok in this lineup. He obviously won't be great and won't bring this team into the playoffs, but he'll be better than many on here want to admit.

I see 2008 as his basement. I mean he can't be much worse than that and still get a job. I see 2007 as an outlier/fluke season in somewhat limited action. In other words, he may have been managed properly, something not likely to happen with Baker at the helm. IMO 2005-06 represent closer to his ceiling.

And that ain't good.

[dougdirt]

If they are the same age, how come Dickerson's 400 AB in 2008 (only 100 AB at the ML level) are considered a cause for optimism? You must admit, the rest of Dickerson's minor league career is pretty unremarkable.

In contrast, Wily had a respectful 3 seasons out of 4, yet he's dismissed as crap, with no chance to improve his OBP next year. He's clearly "on the decline", despite being the same age.

Because over the last two seasons Dickerson's skillset/approach/talent has changed compared to what it was before that. So what he did with an old skillset doesn't give us any insight into what his new skillset is likely to produce.

Willy Taveras has not changed his skillset/talent/approach, thus there should be no reason to expect his numbers to be better.

[MWM]

Like Cyclone, I'm more in the disappointed camp. A signing like this isn't enough to warrant any kind of real strong emotion. I've just accepted the fact that the Reds have been a poorly run organization for going on a couple of decades now. And as long as they have backwards looking leadership (Castellini is clearly stuck in the past), they'll continue to be a bad organization. That's what they are. A poor organization from the ownership box to the playing field. Everything about the way this organization is run is further proof that they just don't know how to succeed in the modern day game. I'm not optimistic that it will change under Castellini's watch. So there's a certain level of peace that comes with the acceptance of that belief. So when something like this happens, it's disappointing because it's a reminder of all of that, but it's not worthy of any real outrage either.

[Ltlabner]

In contrast, Wily had a respectful 3 seasons out of 4, yet he's dismissed as crap,

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2
Willy Taveras	2007  408  .367	.382 .62745  78.6%  16.4  .261	12.5	-1.8
Willy Taveras	2006  587  .333	.338 .66099  78.6%   5.1  .242   6.9   -12.4
Willy Taveras	2005  635  .325	.341 .65984  75.6%   4.9  .242   7.3   -15.7

In 2005/2006 he made outs 65% or more of the time, stole bases at a barely acceptable rate, had hugely sub-par EqA, barely scored more runs than a replacement level player and scored significantly less runs than an average CF.

I fail to see how that is "respectable" let alone "helpful".

[RedLegSuperStar]

Anyone know the dollar amount of the deal yet?

[REDREAD]

It makes a big difference -- even if he only scores in 30% of those additional 30 OB opportunities, he adds another 10 runs to the Run Differential. If you skew towards the traditional methods of following baseball, those 10 runs could potentially change the outcome of 10 games. .

The Reds scored 704 runs last season and gave up 800.

Their pythag winning percentage was .436
Actual winning percentage was .457

If you added 10 runs, the pythag record only improves to
.443

The delta is .007 which is one win. Certainly, it's worth persuing that extra ten runs, but it's not the difference between a totally useless player and a great player.

Also, I am not sure that if the leadoff guy walks 30 more times, that it will lead to 10 more runs. That might be slightly overly optimistic.

[REDREAD]

At least that move would be a step in the right direction.

Signing Willy Taveras is pouring gas on the collective fire of suck that is the Cincinnati Reds.

My point is that there's a good possiblity both Dickerson and Hopper will suck worse than Tavaras next year. Maybe only one will be worse. Such is the woes of a team with no depth in position players.

[dougdirt]

My point is that there's a good possiblity both Dickerson and Hopper will suck worse than Tavaras next year. Maybe only one will be worse. Such is the woes of a team with no depth in position players.

I think the possibility that Dickerson sucks more than Taveras next year is less than 20%. Dickerson just has a much stronger skillset, one that is better suited to succeed at the things that matter in scoring runs.

[REDREAD]

So what you are saying is that there are no other CF's that are available for trade, no MLB ready CF's in the minor leagues available for trade and no other FA options? In all of major league baseball?

It was Taveras or an empty outfield? That's the only available choices?

Not buying it. Especially since Taveras has been on the rumor mill for weeks now. It would be different if it was March and we still had 1.5 outfielders. But it isn't.

Do you think Walt is trying to do better? Do you think it's easy to acquire one of these CF in our price range without giving up a Ceuto or a player like him in the process?

Walt doesn't have the luxury of waiting until April for a better option and then reloading his saved game if one is not available. This isn't a computer game where any player can be acquired. This is reality, (on planet earth, as you point out). Part of reality is risk management. It's the end of December, and Walt has an empty OF. So he signs Tavaras to mitigate that risk a little bit.

He still has to find another OF before the season starts.

[dougdirt]

Do you think Walt is trying to do better? Do you think it's easy to acquire one of these CF in our price range without giving up a Ceuto or a player like him in the process?

Walt doesn't have the luxury of waiting until April for a better option and then reloading his saved game if one is not available. This isn't a computer game where any player can be acquired. This is reality, (on planet earth, as you point out). Part of reality is risk management. It's the end of December, and Walt has an empty OF. So he signs Tavaras to mitigate that risk a little bit.

He still has to find another OF before the season starts.

Which comes back to the original issue.... why the heck was Walt going after a center fielder? There was not a need for one. He had one and a backup between Dickerson and Hopper. He needed and still needs a corner outfielder.

[REDREAD]

See my response in post 810. The choice is not Taveras or nothing. That's a faulty scenario and you know it.

.

And it's faulty for you to assume that Walt is finished now and has given up pursuing any further options. It's also faulty for some people to assume that Tavaras will get 700 ABs at the leadoff slot next year, regardless of performance.

Tavaras was signed at a backup OF salary (under 3 milllion). No reason to sweat it and act as if this is the downfall of the franchise.

Let me ask you this: Let's say Arthur Rhodes pulls a Stanton on us next year. Do you think the Reds will be able to recover from that? I do, because it's not a big contract. I hope Rhodes does well, but he's not a key cog in the wheel, just like Tavaras isn't a key cog.

[REDREAD]

No.

But by age 27 we'll have a pretty darn good idea what Jay Bruce is/will be.

That was my point about Taveras. He's a known quantity versus Dickerson who is unknown.

Just because Dickerson is a less known quanity doesn't mean he's going to be better.

Tavaras has had a much better career to date.

[Caveat Emperor]

Also, I am not sure that if the leadoff guy walks 30 more times, that it will lead to 10 more runs. That might be slightly overly optimistic.

I actually think it's fairly conservative.

Every uptick in OBP increases the total number of PAs for not just the hitter, but the other hitters around him in the lineup.

30 more walks means 30 more opportunities for the next man up. Even figuring the next man up at .350 OBP, that's an additional 11 times on base for him.

So, suddenly we've got not just 30 extra guys on base, we've got 41 additional guys on base. And, of course, we're not even factoring HOW the next guy gets on base -- it might be a walk, or it might be a double, or even a home run that adds a tick directly to the run total. If you give a guy like Joey Votto an extra 30 PAs, you can predict with some certainty that he's probably going to hit an additional HR (given his PA per HR is well under 30).

Cascade effect of high OBP -- it brings your hitters to the plate more frequently and gives more opportunities to score runs.