Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[REDREAD]

Willy Taveras is on the other hand using the exact same approach/skill/talent as a 23 year old version of himself.

Not necessarily. Tavaras had success in 2007. The Reds are supposedly working with him to get back to that approach. They said he changed his approach in 2008.

Dickerson did have a nice season last year. However, 100 AB at the end of the season is completely different than starting every day after teams have a scouting report on you, as Stynes and Nunally found out.

I just wonder how Tavaras 2007 season can be written off as "luck" by some, yet Dickerson's 400 AB in 2008 signals a huge step forward? IMO, we're not really sure what we're going to get from either player, that's why it's wise to have some depth, in case one of the guys completely falls apart.

[Big Klu]

Are you going to call Jay Bruce a bust if he doesn't have a huge season before age 27?

There are a lot of people out there who would, because Reds fans were promised that he would be an absolute monster right out of the gate, and we haven't seen that yet. I have a feeling that the fans aren't going to be patient with him. I think he will need to have that monster season no later than 2010--otherwise, he will be labeled a bust.

[REDREAD]

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2
Willy Taveras	2007  408  .367	.382 .62745  78.6%  16.4  .261	12.5	-1.8
Willy Taveras	2006  587  .333	.338 .66099  78.6%   5.1  .242   6.9   -12.4
Willy Taveras	2005  635  .325	.341 .65984  75.6%   4.9  .242   7.3   -15.7

In 2005/2006 he made outs 65% or more of the time, stole bases at a barely acceptable rate, had hugely sub-par EqA, barely scored more runs than a replacement level player and scored significantly less runs than an average CF.



I fail to see how that is "respectable" let alone "helpful".

A .325 OBP at age 22 is respectable. Likewise .333 at age 23 is respectable, when you take into account that he plays a good CF (IMO) and is one of the best base stealers in the league.

Jay Bruce's VORP last season was only 4.8, which was WORSE than Wily's first two years. Does Bruce suck too? Should we cut him? Of course not, we will give Bruce some slack because he was playing in the major leagues at a very young age. But for some reason, people won't give Tavaras the same benefit of the doubt.

[REDREAD]

I think the possibility that Dickerson sucks more than Taveras next year is less than 20%. Dickerson just has a much stronger skillset, one that is better suited to succeed at the things that matter in scoring runs.

But what about vs Hopper? Don't you think Tavaras is better than Hopper?

Hopefully Walt gets some better OF in and pushes both Dickerson and Tavaras to the bench, but right now, this is a solid depth move.

[REDREAD]

Which comes back to the original issue.... why the heck was Walt going after a center fielder? There was not a need for one. He had one and a backup between Dickerson and Hopper. He needed and still needs a corner outfielder.

A cheap backup to Dickerson, which is smart, IMO.

This signing doesn't stop Walt from adding the corner OF you desire him too.

[dougdirt]

Not necessarily. Tavaras had success in 2007. The Reds are supposedly working with him to get back to that approach. They said he changed his approach in 2008.

Dickerson did have a nice season last year. However, 100 AB at the end of the season is completely different than starting every day after teams have a scouting report on you, as Stynes and Nunally found out.

I just wonder how Tavaras 2007 season can be written off as "luck" by some, yet Dickerson's 400 AB in 2008 signals a huge step forward? IMO, we're not really sure what we're going to get from either player, that's why it's wise to have some depth, in case one of the guys completely falls apart.

Taveras 2007 was luck because he didn't walk more and he didn't hit for more power, he just had 14 more hits fall in as a result of his normal .330 BABIP turning into a .370 BABIP. Thats it.

Dickerson was in the FSL in 2005 and despite going up a level and in a power reducing invironment saw his IsoP jump from .097 to .147. He then went ahead and got into AA, where his time there in 2006/2007 saw his IsoP go to .159. Then his time in AAA from 2007 to 2008 he saw his IsoP go to .184.

So while Taveras saw his numbers increase because of luck, Dickerson was showing a change in his skill set. Its not just 2008. It was his data from 2005-2008 and seeing his power increase at each step of the way while maintaining his ability to still draw lots of walks.

One guy showed no change. One guy showed lots.

[dougdirt]

But what about vs Hopper? Don't you think Tavaras is better than Hopper?

Hopefully Walt gets some better OF in and pushes both Dickerson and Tavaras to the bench, but right now, this is a solid depth move.

The only difference between Hopper and Taveras is that Hopper strikes out significantly less and hasn't played as long in the majors. I think they are worth about the same. Fringe 5th outfield types good for pinch running and sacrifice bunting.

And you can hope all you want about Walt getting better outfielders, but he isn't going to bring in anyone thats going to play CF. He has said that Bruce and Taveras make up 2/3 of the outfield. Taveras is his starter. He isn't bringing someone in to compete with him or to overtake him there.

[dougdirt]

A cheap backup to Dickerson, which is smart, IMO.

This signing doesn't stop Walt from adding the corner OF you desire him too.

No, it doesn't. It does stop him from playing the better option for CF though, which is Chris Dickerson.

[TRF]

No, it doesn't. It does stop him from playing the better option for CF though, which is Chris Dickerson.

And pushes Dickerson to LF which is a waste of his defensive skills and weakens the position offensively. Dickerson isn't in Dunn's class at the plate, and ideally he should never have to be compared to him. Dickerson's ceiling might be Mike Cameron. Power, defense and decent OB skills. And he can steal a base or two. He SHOULD be the starting CF. But the OF red herring is in full force.

SS Keppinger. ugh.

[dougdirt]

And pushes Dickerson to LF which is a waste of his defensive skills and weakens the position offensively. Dickerson isn't in Dunn's class at the plate, and ideally he should never have to be compared to him. Dickerson's ceiling might be Mike Cameron. Power, defense and decent OB skills. And he can steal a base or two. He SHOULD be the starting CF. But the OF red herring is in full force.

SS Keppinger. ugh.

I still don't see Dickerson being a left fielder. If the Reds bring in Hairston I fully see him being the left fielder next year (vomit). If they don't, I see them going in a direction that isn't Chris Dickerson. I think all the WT thing does is push Dickerson to the bench and leave open LF still, which is the only spot we needed to address in the first place.

[TRF]

I still don't see Dickerson being a left fielder. If the Reds bring in Hairston I fully see him being the left fielder next year (vomit). If they don't, I see them going in a direction that isn't Chris Dickerson. I think all the WT thing does is push Dickerson to the bench and leave open LF still, which is the only spot we needed to address in the first place.

SS. SS NEEDS to be addressed. badly. beyond badly.

[dougdirt]

SS. SS NEEDS to be addressed. badly. beyond badly.

I was referring to the OF. You are correct though.

[TRF]

The OF needed to be addressed. Well, LF and a true 4th OF was needed. But there is a glut of corner OF's both on the market and available via trade. Plus there is one or two potential candidates in house for LF (Dorn, Henry Frazier/EE). The OF could have waited.

Instead the 2008 Reds will feature some combination of Keppinger - no range, AGon - no health, and Janish - no bat. wheee!

Walt's complete failure thus far to land a stud SS is alarming to me.

[Highlifeman21]

Taveras would contribute to the woes but I am sure that he would only be part of the equation.



What happened last season? Not blaming Dunn, but their pitching wasn't a huge issue last year.



If it is the "big" one, then that would mean that there isn't enough out there to make them a contender without hurting the future of the franchise. Loading up on overpriced vets for the sake of optics is as dumb as it gets.

If Taveras gets more than 600 PA, he'll be a huge part of the crappy equation.

Pitchers not named Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Cordero, Burton and Affeldt sucked last year. That means roughly 1/2 the staff sucked.

I'm not saying load up on "overpriced vets", but if those "overpriced vets" are better than what we have in-house, which looks to be the case, then start loading up.

[Boss-Hog]

Walt's complete failure thus far to land a stud SS is alarming to me.

I agree with you that we need to address SS, but you say that like stud SS's grow on trees.