Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[Caveat Emperor]

Why does Bruce get the free pass for being called up at age 22, but Tavaras doesn't? Frankly, I think it's an accomplishment when a 22 year old can post a positive VORP.

This argument is so silly I almost let it pass.

The answer is that Bruce has talent which profiles off the charts. There is almost uniform consensus among people who follow baseball for a living, both the scouts and the analysts, that he has a chance to be a special ballplayer. His skillset projects to better things down the road than he showed as a 22 year old rookie. He has shown many of those skills already, both in his limited major league time and during his time in the minors.

Willy Taveras possess no such talent. You won't find a person on the planet to say Taveras is going to develop any pop in his bat, or will start stroking the ball for high-average base hits. What he has is speed. He will live or die legging out ground balls and stealing bases when he does get on. His one "good" season (and by "good" I mean still below league average for a CF -- see the numbers EVERYONE has provided) was propped up by said infield hits and an extremely high BABIP average.

In short: he epitomizes a "what's on the back of the baseball card is what you get" ballplayer. If there's something new to be mined from him, he hasn't shown it yet at any level he has played.

The difference between him and Jay Bruce in that regard is night and day, and it's downright silly to compare them.

[Reds Nd2]

Steel showed that 2007 wasn't a good year? Is that what you are saying?
I've read every post on this thread, but I guess I missed that.

You must have missed that one. Steel pointed out, quite clearly I might add, why Taveras' 2-0-7 was luck and not likely to repeated in his new environment.

This was a bad signing by the Reds.

[Chip R]

I think that a lot of people who like this signing like it because it's someone different than Corey Patterson. I bet if Corey changed his name and put on a funny nose and glasses people would want the Reds to sign him because he's not Corey Patterson.

I can understand wanting depth in the OF but if you wanted depth, why not just re-sign Patterson? Calling Corey Tavaras a contingency plan with Dusty as manager is like giving Cheech and Chong a kilo of pot as a contingency that they will need it for glaucoma.

I guess I'm not quite sure what people expect when the Reds do something like this and the people who predict doom and gloom say, "I told you so." Do you expect them to keep quiet? Do you expect them to say they had no idea it would turn out like it did when they clearly did?

Personally, I could give a hoot if Corey Tavaras hits any home runs as long as he's getting on base at a really good clip.

So basically we traded a guy who couldn't get on base but played outstanding CF defense for a guy who can't get on base and plays a mediocre CF? But I guess in the same world where 20-25 HRs and 75-80 RBIs are better than 40 HRs and 100 RBIs it makes sense.

Tony Womack not only went to the World Series but was on a team who won it. Maybe the Reds should re-sign him.

I can't wait for the games where Tavaras leads off and the Hop bats 2nd.

This team may have fans counting the days till Bengals open training camp. For this team to contend, Corey Tavaras is going to have to get on base at a much better clip than he has so far. Gonzo is going to have to stay healthy and play D like his rep says he does. The young guns of Votto and Bruce are going to have to have big time offensive years. Phillips is going to have to return to his 2007 form at the plate offensively. Hernandez is going to have to be better offensively and defensively than Bako/Ross (which might be the best bet) EE is going to have to up the average and increase the power. And we're going to need a LFer. I haven't even began to talk about the pitching staff yet. Harang is going to have to be the Harang of the previous few years instead of the one from last year. Arroyo will have to be more consistent. Cueto and Volquez are also going to have to step it up. The guys in the back end of the bullpen will have to stay healthy and/or not suck. If all that happens, the Reds may be a contender. The odds on all that going as hoped are very long.

[MWM]

Redread, you do this every off-season. The Reds sign someone (Milton, Patterson, etc...), several people on the board point out that this player is likely to be a pretty bad player for the Reds, and you argue against those folks under the "benefit of the doubt" umbrella. Aren't you tired of coming down on the wrong side of these debates?

[Razor Shines]

I must be missing something when I look at Taveras' 2005-2006 numbers as opposed to his 2008 season.

2005-2006- Averaged 550 AB, 80 runs, .285 BA, .330 OBP, .330 SLG., 33 SB, 160 hits

2008:Averaged 480 AB, 64 runs, 120 hits, .250 BA .308 OBP, .300 SLG., 68 SB

Now let's just say Tavarez is able to get back to his 2005-2006 level of offensive production with a 80 run, .330 OBP, .285 BA, .330 SLG. (or even more in GABP) while maintaining his increased level of SB production. Those kind of numbers aren't ideal, but it would be something I could live with. Is it really unreasonable that Taveras could do that the next 2 years? I will admit I can be overly optimistic sometimes.

Well you must have missed this:

Maybe if I post this here, someone else will read it.
How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

Credit goes to Raisor (as credit should for all great developments in baseball thought and life):

this:

And just so everyone knows what we're looking at, over his career Taveras has been worth -49.1 Runs Above Position and -13.59 RAP per 600 PA. To put that in perspective, since 2005 there have only been six 500+ PA non-Taveras seasons put up in CF with a RAP value more negative than -13.59 RAP. Generally, when a player stinks that badly offensively, they don't get a chance to put up that many PA.

this:

NAME	        YEAR   PA   OBP  SLG  OUTR    SB%   VORP   EqA	 RAR   RAP
Willy Taveras	2008  538  .308	.296 .67658  90.7%   2.0  .238	 4.2   -19.2
Willy Taveras	2007  408  .367	.382 .62745  78.6%  16.4  .261	12.5	-1.8
Willy Taveras	2006  587  .333	.338 .66099  78.6%   5.1  .242   6.9   -12.4
Willy Taveras	2005  635  .325	.341 .65984  75.6%   4.9  .242   7.3   -15.7

In 2005/2006 he made outs 65% or more of the time, stole bases at a barely acceptable rate, had hugely sub-par EqA, barely scored more runs than a replacement level player and scored significantly less runs than an average CF.

I fail to see how that is "respectable" let alone "helpful".

This one breaks it down into pretty simple terms:

And, once again, the 2007 version was still a below average player.

The 2005, 2006, 2008 versions are too awful to even think about.

And he's signed to a two year deal. He's going to get 1200 PA's in those two years, and even at his best (and his best was so far over his head he could see Big Ben from up there) he's still BELOW AVERAGE.

An "average" NL CF is nothing to write home about.

And just in case you bought into the whole "we'll fix him" stuff:

Also from Jocketty:

"He (Taveras) needs to bunt more and keep the ball on the ground and get some infield hits. I don’t know if he tried to hit home runs, or what, but Jamie think he changed his approach and that we can get him back on track."

Great. So a guy who already had a chance to "fix" Taveras over a full season now thinks he can "fix" the guy in a new location. Here's Taveras over his time with Colorado:

2008 GB%: 51.5%
2007 GB%: 51.5%

2008 FB%: 28.4%
2007 FB%: 31.6%

2008 IFH%: 10.3%
2007 IFH%: 10.9%

2008 BUH%: 40.7%
2007 BUH%: 64.4%

One of those things is not like the other...but most of those things are almost exactly the same...

IFH% speaks to the percentage of Infield Hits versus total and BUH% shows us the percentage of non-sac Bunts resulting in Base Hits. And there's the sore thumb from 2007- a non-repeatable 64.4% BUH%. Here's Taveras career:

2008: 40.7%
2007: 64.4%
2006: 42.9%
2005: 47.7%

Taveras did nothing to change his freakin' approach. The results were almost identical for BIP rates excepting a slight increase in Taveras' 2008 Line Drive rate versus 2007 (20.1% versus 16.9%). Jamie Quirk is flat out looney and those quotes read as if Jocketty is sitting next to him in a padded cell. He needs to hit the ball on the ground more? His 2008 GB rate was identical to 2007. Taveras hit a lower percentage of fly balls, and his Line Drive rate actually went up slightly. What he didn't do (and couldn't be expected to) is leg out an additional 24 percent of his bunt attempts like he did in 2007.

Now we know for a fact where most of that BABIP spike came from and it has nothing to do with a "changed approach". Jocketty shouldn't have brought him in, but should definitely be expected to know enough about Taveras' game that he wouldn't cite Jamie Quirk's fairy dust "approach" story as a reason to look for improvement. In fact, the next time Quirk suggests something I'd do the exact opposite if I were Jocketty.

There are plenty more that you must have missed, but those are enough to let you rest easy knowing that now you know this was a horrible signing.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I think that a lot of people who like this signing like it because it's someone different than Corey Patterson. I bet if Corey changed his name and put on a funny nose and glasses people would want the Reds to sign him because he's not Corey Patterson.

I can understand wanting depth in the OF but if you wanted depth, why not just re-sign Patterson? Calling Corey Tavaras a contingency plan with Dusty as manager is like giving Cheech and Chong a kilo of pot as a contingency that they will need it for glaucoma.

I guess I'm not quite sure what people expect when the Reds do something like this and the people who predict doom and gloom say, "I told you so." Do you expect them to keep quiet? Do you expect them to say they had no idea it would turn out like it did when they clearly did?

Personally, I could give a hoot if Corey Tavaras hits any home runs as long as he's getting on base at a really good clip.

So basically we traded a guy who couldn't get on base but played outstanding CF defense for a guy who can't get on base and plays a mediocre CF? But I guess in the same world where 20-25 HRs and 75-80 RBIs are better than 40 HRs and 100 RBIs it makes sense.

Tony Womack not only went to the World Series but was on a team who won it. Maybe the Reds should re-sign him.

I can't wait for the games where Tavaras leads off and the Hop bats 2nd.

This team may have fans counting the days till Bengals open training camp. For this team to contend, Corey Tavaras is going to have to get on base at a much better clip than he has so far. Gonzo is going to have to stay healthy and play D like his rep says he does. The young guns of Votto and Bruce are going to have to have big time offensive years. Phillips is going to have to return to his 2007 form at the plate offensively. Hernandez is going to have to be better offensively and defensively than Bako/Ross (which might be the best bet) EE is going to have to up the average and increase the power. And we're going to need a LFer. I haven't even began to talk about the pitching staff yet. Harang is going to have to be the Harang of the previous few years instead of the one from last year. Arroyo will have to be more consistent. Cueto and Volquez are also going to have to step it up. The guys in the back end of the bullpen will have to stay healthy and/or not suck. If all that happens, the Reds may be a contender. The odds on all that going as hoped are very long.

Corey Taveras. LOL. I like it. Next you are going to tell me Dusty's daughter dumped Patterson for Taveras. She has the need, the need for speed. And a very low OBP.

[dougdirt]

Ok, so if Bruce or Dickerson or one of your other favorites has a higher BABIP next year, you are going to claim it's luck? Give me a break. If he got 14 extra singles, he got 14 extra singles. Unless you are going to examine every plate appearance and determine whether the hit/walk was "earned" or if the out is a result of bad luck, this is just plain absurd.

Dickerson had an extremely high BABIP last year. Thats why no one thinks he can repeat what he did in 2008 in 2009. Same thing goes for Bruce. Its why Jay will struggle to hit for a good average until he cuts down on the strikeouts some more (or hits 50+ HR). The amount of balls in play just isn't enough to sustain a high average without lots of power for guys with bigger strikeout numbers.

Whether it was earned or not, the likelihood of him repeating a .371 average on balls in play is very unlikely. Between 2000 and 2007 there were 1747 people with at least 400 PA in a season. The number of people with a .371 BABIP or higher over that period of time was a grand total of 36. Let me repeat that, 36 of 1747 people were able to post a .371 BABIP or higher over a 400 PA season. Thats barely 2%. Thats pure luck. Whether you are willing to admit that or not is another thing, but it is what it is.

[SMcGavin]

Now let's just say Tavarez is able to get back to his 2005-2006 level of offensive production with a 80 run, .330 OBP, .285 BA, .330 SLG. (or even more in GABP) while maintaining his increased level of SB production. Those kind of numbers aren't ideal, but it would be something I could live with. Is it really unreasonable that Taveras could do that the next 2 years? I will admit I can be overly optimistic sometimes.

I agree that .285/.330/.330 is a reasonable projection for Taveras (it's pretty much his career totals). Where we disagree is on the value of that. If Taveras puts up that line, he'll be a very bad baseball player and will have a significant negative effect on the ability of the Reds to win games.

[Raisor]

I must be missing something when I look at Taveras' 2005-2006 numbers as opposed to his 2008 season.

2005-2006- Averaged 550 AB, 80 runs, .285 BA, .330 OBP, .330 SLG., 33 SB, 160 hits

2008:Averaged 480 AB, 64 runs, 120 hits, .250 BA .308 OBP, .300 SLG., 68 SB

Now let's just say Tavarez is able to get back to his 2005-2006 level of offensive production with a 80 run, .330 OBP, .285 BA, .330 SLG. (or even more in GABP) while maintaining his increased level of SB production. Those kind of numbers aren't ideal, but it would be something I could live with. Is it really unreasonable that Taveras could do that the next 2 years? I will admit I can be overly optimistic sometimes.

Runs Created per 100 PA and per 600 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

NL average CF is aboout 90 runs per 600.

[Ltlabner]

Players that bad are always readily available and the cheapest of the worst at their position are generally available for free and/or for far less than 2-year multi-million-dollar contracts.

Come on Steel. It was Willy T or an empty position at CF. Geez.

Subject change: Question for the "but he played on two World Series teams" people. If he was such an important cog in their machines, why did two separate World Series teams let him go? If being on a WS team is instructive, shouldn't being let go by two WS teams be more instructive?

[Ltlabner]

Take it easy boys, I don't think anyone is ignoring your numbers. I think after seeing them once everyone is doing what I do and trying not to look at them the 2nd, 3rd or 4th times because then the drinking will start and once the drinking starts the sleeping through work starts and then bills stop getting paid and that starts a whole other process of things and I just don't want to start down that road. Or am I slightly overreacting?

If it makes you feel any better, I was drunk by the time I had looked them up.
:

[Ltlabner]

I think that a lot of people who like this signing like it because it's someone different than Corey Patterson. I bet if Corey changed his name and put on a funny nose and glasses people would want the Reds to sign him because he's not Corey Patterson.

That may be Chip, but several of the most vocal pro-Willites also claim Patterson wasn't that bad batting leadoff, he didn't really do it 250+ times and poor old Dusty didn't have any choice but to keep sending him out there.

[camisadelgolf]

Does anyone know the details of the contract yet? If not, does anyone have any guesses?

[_Sir_Charles_]

Ok - I'll bite.

How is an infield single any better than a walk? If anything, I prefer the walk. A walk is, at least, guaranteed to make the pitcher throw at least 4 pitches (adding to his pitch count).

Quite often, there is no difference between them. But potentially, there's quite a bit different. With a walk, you have no chance to advance a runner from second to third or from 3rd to home. With a walk you don't put the pressure on the defense to not make an error on the throw or catch. Walks are good, don't get me wrong, but hits are better....always.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Ole Pete got on base quite a lot, via the walk over 1500 times, take his OBP away and he's a bad baseball player, no matter how much "hustle" he brings to the field.

I'm not really sure how to respond to that. I'm too stunned to comprehend Pete and bad baseball player in the same sentence.