Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[westofyou]

Who are the 10 guys?

HOMERUNS                      YEAR     HR       BB     
1    Dante Bichette           1995       40       22   
2    Alfonso Soriano          2002       39       23   
T3   Garret Anderson          2000       35       24   
T3   Walker Cooper            1947       35       24   
T3   Ivan Rodriguez           1999       35       24   
6    Bob Horner               1979       33       22   
T7   Andres Galarraga         1994       31       19   
T7   Felipe Alou              1966       31       24   
T7   Jose Guillen             2003       31       24   
T7   Andre Dawson             1991       31       22

[Cyclone792]

10 guys have hit over 30 HR's in a season with a Corey Patterson like walk rate. That's 10 guys out of the 8132 that have had at least 500 ab's in a season. 482 guys have had 30 HR's with at least 75 BB in a season.

I know what number I'd bet on.

Yup, that data right there paints the picture beautifully.

[Jpup]

HOMERUNS                      YEAR     HR       BB     
1    Dante Bichette           1995       40       22   
2    Alfonso Soriano          2002       39       23   
T3   Garret Anderson          2000       35       24   
T3   Walker Cooper            1947       35       24   
T3   Ivan Rodriguez           1999       35       24   
6    Bob Horner               1979       33       22   
T7   Andres Galarraga         1994       31       19   
T7   Felipe Alou              1966       31       24   
T7   Jose Guillen             2003       31       24   
T7   Andre Dawson             1991       31       22

Anderson and Rodriguez are available. I always figured Felipe Alou was a hacker.

[REDREAD]

Redread, you do this every off-season. The Reds sign someone (Milton, Patterson, etc...), several people on the board point out that this player is likely to be a pretty bad player for the Reds, and you argue against those folks under the "benefit of the doubt" umbrella. Aren't you tired of coming down on the wrong side of these debates?

Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right. I was right on Maj (the day of the trade). I was right on Belisle. I was right on Aurillia. Yes, I was overly optimistic about Milton. I admit that.

I never claimed Patterson would be a star. I'm saying that Tavaras is likely to be below average, but might be better than 2008. I'm saying that Tavaras could OBP between 330 and 340, and if he does, he wouldn't be horrible.

It's funny that people still bring up Patterson. People think that Patterson was Wayne's worst move. IMO, it wasn't a horrible move. I agree Wayne overpaid him. However, we ended up needing Patterson. Wayne probably knew that Jr and Dunn were going to get traded during the season. He also knew he didn't have a true CF. Wayne also didn't have a lot of money.
He had to get a body to play CF. He didn't have 10-15 million year to sign a FA. He didn't want to trade the prospects to get one.

It's a similiar situation with Tavaras. Note, I am saying that Tavaras will probably be below average.

It's just so easy for people on the internet to criticize every acquision under the umbrella of "This guy profiles to be below average".. Well, if the Reds aren't willing to trade one of their attractive young players, they aren't going to get an average player. It's just that simple. Ask Cleveland what it would take to get Sizemore. Ask NY what it was take to get Beltran. They will probably hang up on you, but if they don't, they are obviously going to ask for Volquez, Ceuto, and/or Bruce. They'd be stupid not to.

People here whine because they think that Dusty is stupid and will automatically play the worst players. Isn't that the root of most of the anger here? That somehow Dickerson (the favorite prospect this year) is going to get screwed over? Despite the fact that Walt said Dickerson is currently slotted for LF, everyone has their panties in a wad over Walt saying that Tavaras has the inside track on CF. No one considers that if Tavaras falters, he will be benched if a better option is available (just like Patterson).

Everyone wants to go young, but they whine and belly ache when the Reds audition relatively young guys like Patterson and Tavaras. I remember people screaming to cut Wily Mo Pena because he was "a useless waste of roster space", despite the fact he had trade value. Naturally, every time you take a flyer on a guy like Patterson/Tavaras, you aren't going to end up with a Josh Hamilton but the Reds are in a position where they have to give guys like this chances. Tavaras at less than 3 million/year isn't going to cripple the Reds at all. Walt basically replaced 1 year of Freel with 2 years of Tavaras. The cost is close to the same. Tavaras may or many not offer better production than Freel.

So, if you are still reading, my point is that every player move doesn't have to be for a guy that is guaranteed to perform at least average level. Teams need depth to make it through the season. I'm not proclaiming Tavaras a savior by any means. He may be adequate, despite the fact that 90% of the board thinks he's totally useless, worst than Stubbs, etc, etc.

And even if Tavaras does only OBP weakly, at least he's a cheap backup OF that can play defense and pinch run (he does both better than Freel). At least he's a buffer zone that prevents the Reds from rushing their young OF.
His salary isn't so high that he can't be cut.

[REDREAD]

For the record, Bruce won't be 22 until April of 2009.

Ok, I stand corrected. His VORP was at age 21. Tavaras was at age 22. Still the point is the same.

[REDREAD]

That's because exactly nobody is looking at his VORP from a given year and saying he's a dud.

We're looking at the totality of a range of different numbers in the context of his skill-set. All of which makes the probability of him being of any use very low.

Yes, they are picking metrics which value slugging, like runs created, etc.
Yes, I know SB get a miniscule amount of credit in runs created, but the formula is still largely OPS.

Everyone knows that Tavaras has little power. That's a weakness. Tavaras' strengths (IMO) are defense and SBs which are underrated on this board (again, IMO). I think there's more to the game than OPS, but I understand that most people disagree.

I picked VORP because supposedly that is a good metric to compare a CF vs a RF to. I forget if VORP includes defense or not.

[Caveat Emperor]

My point is that I could use the same stats based argument to damn Bruce to a career of mediocrity.

No, you couldn't.

Statistically, you would be using an extremely small sample size (less than 1 full season of ML PAs) to make predictions about how a 1st year player will grow and develop. Observationally, you'd be forced into completely discounting aspects of Bruce's game that were flashed (plus power, ability to hit with power to all fields) but are not yet fully realized.

No one with an ounce of sense says they can know everything about a player after one year. If you look, nobody here is doing in that. In fact, everyone arguing AGAINST Taveras is suggesting that you look at the whole picture, from year 1 to last year to get an idea of who or what he is.

The point is also that Tavaras could improve just as we assume Dickerson and Bruce will improve.

Sure, anything is possible.

It just is a longshot bet to suggest that a player with Willy Taveras' physical tools and past history will suddenly stop being what he has been for 4 years and become something else. This is where the rubber meets the road when it comes to statistical analysis and emperical observation (scouting) -- the numbers say Willy Taveras is a noodle-sticked hacking speedster who relies on legging hits out to get on base. Watching Willy Taveras, noting his body type and the way he plays, say he is a noodle-sticked hacking speedster who relies on legging hits out to get on base.

There are skillsets which can be reflected in watching a player play ("he hits the ball hard" / "he shows good patience at the plate") and can be refleced in the numbers (SLG, OBP, IsoD, IsoP). If you don't see a skllset when you watch a player or when you look at his numbers over a course minor and major league years chances are it isn't there. COULD it be there? Sure, but that, again is a longshot -- as every number posted has shown, and every observation of Willy Taveras has reinforced.

Play the longshots all you like, just don't stand around wondering why your horse never shows.

[Ltlabner]

I picked VORP because supposedly that is a good metric to compare a CF vs a RF to. I forget if VORP includes defense or not.

VORP does not include defense and is position specific.

[SteelSD]

I posted about the luck. Others may have also done so. Fact is, when only 2% of all players from 2000-2007 were able to have 400PA and a .371 or better average on balls in play, its luck, plain and simple. If it were a skill, it would happen more frequently than it does.

Yep. The BUH% overage was pretty close to being the entire difference between Taveras' 2007 and 2008 RC values. In 2007, his RC/600 PA was 80.48 with those extra 14 singles. Remove them and his RC/600 PA drops to 67.04. Now, knowing that those additional OB events also allowed for more SB attempts, his actual RC/600 PA value was pretty close to his 2008 result (62.36 RC/600 PA).

Here are the players since 2004 (tracking doesn't go back past that) who've produced a BUH% above 50% and with at least 10 Bunt Singles (Min. 400 PA):

2008- Jacoby Ellsbury (11 BUH, 57.9%)
2007- Willy Taveras (38 BUH, 64.4%)
2006- Ryan Zimmerman (10 BUH, 83.3%), Corey Patterson (21 BUH, 51.2%)
2005- No qualifiers
2004- Luis Castillo (10 BUH, 62.5%)

Now, here are the hitters who were able to repeat that feat:

<crickets>

Castillo hasn't produced anything higher than 48.5% since 2004. Zimmerman hit 100% in 2008 (3 measly bunts). Patterson's BUH rate dropped to 35.1% and a respectable 44.4% (in line with his career) in 2008 and look what happened to him anyway. Taveras' BUH dropped to around 40% in 2008 and his performance tanked in large part due to the BABIP hit he saw from it even though he was reaching base at a good BUH rate for anyone.

Overall, 50% BUH appears to be the high water mark for what we could normally expect for a premier speed bunter, with low to mid-40% ranges being far more likely from even the fastest guys. But that's not what we saw, of course, from Taveras in 2007 and it's completely unreasonable to expect him to be able to replicate that 64.4% rate again. In fact, it's most likely about 18 to 20% higher than he'll ever see from him again.

[Kc61]

It's funny that people still bring up Patterson. People think that Patterson was Wayne's worst move. IMO, it wasn't a horrible move. I agree Wayne overpaid him. However, we ended up needing Patterson. Wayne probably knew that Jr and Dunn were going to get traded during the season. He also knew he didn't have a true CF. Wayne also didn't have a lot of money.
He had to get a body to play CF. He didn't have 10-15 million year to sign a FA. He didn't want to trade the prospects to get one.

It's a similiar situation with Tavaras. Note, I am saying that Tavaras will probably be below average.

It's just so easy for people on the internet to criticize every acquision under the umbrella of "This guy profiles to be below average".. Well, if the Reds aren't willing to trade one of their attractive young players, they aren't going to get an average player. It's just that simple. Ask Cleveland what it would take to get Sizemore. Ask NY what it was take to get Beltran. They will probably hang up on you, but if they don't, they are obviously going to ask for Volquez, Ceuto, and/or Bruce. They'd be stupid not to.

People here whine because they think that Dusty is stupid and will automatically play the worst players. Isn't that the root of most of the anger here? That somehow Dickerson (the favorite prospect this year) is going to get screwed over? Despite the fact that Walt said Dickerson is currently slotted for LF, everyone has their panties in a wad over Walt saying that Tavaras has the inside track on CF. No one considers that if Tavaras falters, he will be benched if a better option is available (just like Patterson).

Everyone wants to go young, but they whine and belly ache when the Reds audition relatively young guys like Patterson and Tavaras. I remember people screaming to cut Wily Mo Pena because he was "a useless waste of roster space", despite the fact he had trade value. Naturally, every time you take a flyer on a guy like Patterson/Tavaras, you aren't going to end up with a Josh Hamilton but the Reds are in a position where they have to give guys like this chances. Tavaras at less than 3 million/year isn't going to cripple the Reds at all. Walt basically replaced 1 year of Freel with 2 years of Tavaras. The cost is close to the same. Tavaras may or many not offer better production than Freel.

So, if you are still reading, my point is that every player move doesn't have to be for a guy that is guaranteed to perform at least average level. Teams need depth to make it through the season. I'm not proclaiming Tavaras a savior by any means. He may be adequate, despite the fact that 90% of the board thinks he's totally useless, worst than Stubbs, etc, etc.

And even if Tavaras does only OBP weakly, at least he's a cheap backup OF that can play defense and pinch run (he does both better than Freel). At least he's a buffer zone that prevents the Reds from rushing their young OF.
His salary isn't so high that he can't be cut.

Very well said.

But I would add that, with the trading of Dunn and Griffey, the Reds do have an obligation to try to add one significant player this off-season. And this is the year to do it -- because this year the team has no top prospect to add to the big league roster. Next year, when Alonso will almost definitely join the team, the need to add a major player will be less.

So, like you, I can accept the Taveras signing for the reasons you said. But I will be unhappy if the last additions to the team are also "reach" type players.

January should be a very interesting month in the major leagues with all the financial pressure to keep salaries low and with all the still available free agents. I hope the Reds take advantage and cap off the winter with an impact acquisition.

[jojo]

Ok, so the answer is that people are saying that Bruce's VORP, etc at age 22 isn't necessarily a true indicator of his true talent. Bruce might improve with age.

Why can't the same be said for Tavaras? He actually had better numbers than Bruce at that age. He's now about to enter his peak years. He's done his learning/apprenticeship in the majors (As opposed to Dickerson, who did all his learning in the minors).

That is my point. You can't just look at a player's VORP at age 22 and 23 and proclaim at age 27 the guy is going to be a completely useless player as many are doing here.

My point is that I could use the same stats based argument to damn Bruce to a career of mediocrity. The point is also that Tavaras could improve just as we assume Dickerson and Bruce will improve.

Not all saber-based arguments are created equal even if they appear to rely upon similar metrics. This is an important point IMHO.

For instance, comparing "apples to apples", the projections for Bruce and Taveras at age 21 would argue for likely development paths for each player that are substantially different (i.e. Bruce >>> Taveras). Now that Taveras is actually entering his 6th major league season, his performance is even easier to project (i.e. his projection is on much more solid ground).

In order for Taveras to produce something akin to the level that Bruce did in Bruce's rookie season, Taveras had to OPS .200 pts higher against lefties in '07 than he has managed for his career.

IMHO, it's pretty tough to construct a convincing stat-based argument that Taveras will be better than Bruce going forward from this afternoon.

[jojo]

Joe Sheehan at baseball prospectus weighs in on Taveras and the Reds here:

He doesn't have alot of flattering things to say about Jocketty so be warned before reading.

This quote is kind of snappy:

The Reds are going to have to score in the middle of the lineup, because the Hernandez/Gonzalez/pitcher/Taveras/Phillips stretch is going to be out-tastic

[flyer85]

But that's not what we saw, of course, from Taveras in 2007 and it's completely unreasonable to expect him to be able to replicate that 64.4% rate again. In fact, it's most likely about 18 to 20% higher than he'll ever see from him again.

nah, Quirk is going to fix him.

[durl]

Please...someone say something political so this thread can get closed.

[RedsManRick]

Please...someone say something political so this thread can get closed.

But we're getting so close... 40 posts to go!