Were there any plus leadoff hitters/CFers available to Cincy this offseason? They got a guy in his "prime years" who they believe can be an asset who will also play in Cincy for a price that won't stop them from acquiring a replacement or benching him if he isn't.
Not awful.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I'm sure that the FO has much better data than we do. That said, the only time Taveras has topped an OBP of .350 as a major leaguer his BABIP took a wild swing in his favor.
I don't think it's myoptic to suggest that isn't something that is easily predicted nor is it something that should be "banked upon" happening again.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
My view of Taveras is the because he has such a low SLG, he can never OBP .350 again. He is a slap hitter, who gets a large number of his hits via the bunt or infield singe, the type of hits that do drive in runners. Because of this, pitchers will always pound the strike zone with him. The only reason to nibble is to prevent extra base hits, but if the hitter is not an extra base hit threat, there is no reason to nibble. The worst he can do is get a slap hit, which is the same as a walk.
I think the reason why he fell off last year was that pitchers figured this out, and stopped nibbling. Until Taveras learns to drive the ball and gets his SLG up, he will never get enough walks to OBP .350.
All we need from Tavaras is to get on base. I don't care if he only hits hit 1 home run as long as he gets on base. I'm not so sure OPS is a good stat to use when judging a guy like Tavaras just like stolen bases aren't a good stat to use in judging Albert Pujols. If Tavaras can get on base and score runs while playing decent OF defense, then he's worth every penny the Reds are paying him and then some. Granted these are pretty big ifs but if he can do it, it'll be worth it.
As for the original question, I'd have to give him an incomplete. It's not a good time to ask the question. What I do like is that he's not giving in to veteran-love that other GMs have been guilty of. Guys like Rosales, Dickerson, Homer, Owings, Janish and Herrera are all going to be given excellent chances of making the team. We're so used to other GMs bringing in guys like Fogg to fill that 5th starter's role. That's the very thing Dusty's been accussed of. Now, who knows if Dusty's begging Walt to set him up with some vets and Walt's telling him that we have to go with the young guys. Maybe it's the other way around. Who knows? But in the past, a guy like Keppinger would have been as secure as Jay Bruce is of making the team no matter how poorly he hit in ST. And Keppinger doesn't make much more than a rookie does. I was skeptical that Dickerson would even be given much more than a token chance to make the club. I thought for sure someone like Luis Gonzalez or Moises Alou would be brought in. But they weren't. Maybe it was economic factors and those guys were asking for too much money. But it looks like as of this moment, Dickerson is going to be the left handed part of a platoon. He may not start every day in CF like a lot of us wanted but it's better than nothing. For whatever reason, this organization is putting their faith in young players and it's certainly a breath of fresh air.
Good point. And, long-term, it's a step up for the organization. I guess things hinge on whether or not you think the Reds had/didn't have a shot at the playoffs this year. I thought they did, if they made the right moves. When they traded for Hernandez I thought they were on the scent but it suddenly went cold and, more and more, I think it was about money/the economy more than any belief that the Reds would contend this year.
Perhaps it's all for the better because, as per the Bailey/Dye trade rumor, some of the kids are starting to show that they should be kept around. I don't know if they are blooming enough to make a run at the playoffs in '10 but.....(famous shrug)
Rem
Spot on. The Reds are not going to compete this year. My concern has been the lack of offense, but I'm kidding myself. Even if we had acquired Dye or Sheffield or kept Adam Dunn, it would have made no difference. I think Walt Jocketty knew that and stood pat. Sure, he would have taken a Sheffield for league minimum, but apparently Gary wanted a starting job and there is none available. I would have liked to have signed a big bopper mainly because it would make the long summer more enjoyable, but I'll look to the future and not get so morbid. I'd much rather lose 11-9 than 2-1, but this is the way it's going to be until players develop. I think we are on the right track and Willy T or anyone else will not sink this season. We just have to be patient and hope the promise that we see comes to fruition.
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"You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
-Beano Cook
The Reds are still relying largely on the pre-Jocketty players.
Jocketty has made just three important moves in his tenure:
1. Traded Adam Dunn for Micah Owings
2. Traded Ryan Freel for Ramon Hernandez
3. Spent the off-season Free Agent budget on Willy Taveras
You can say the signings of Latin-American youngsters is an important move, but that won't affect the Reds for several years.
Since Walt Jocketty took over the team he has brought in Ramon Hernandez, Micah Owings, Willy Taveras, Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Herrera, Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes.
Jocketty has shipped out Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Keppinger, Jeremy Affeldt, Ryan Freel, Javy Valentin, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, and Gary Majewski.
Hernandez is an improvement over Bako/Valentin.
Owings is an improvement over last year's group of 5th starters.
Taveras was one of the worst players in MLB last year, but still might be a slight improvement over Patterson.
The rest of the newbies are roster filler that wouldn't make many MLB rosters.
I don't think any of those moves are worth getting excited about. They slightly improve the team.
So Walt has really done very little to improve the team since he took over.
If the Reds are to win more games than last year it will be due to last year's players simply playing better than they did last year. We should see lots of improvement from Bruce and Cueto. Some amount of improvement from Votto and Encarnacion. Harang might return to form. Gonzalez might stay healthy. Hopefully these improvements will not only compensate for the loss of Dunn but will lead to extra wins. There are a lot of Ifs and Maybes that must come to fruition for this team to be better than last year.
If any of those core players get hurt we are looking at another dismal season because the team has no depth.
Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 04-05-2009 at 02:16 AM.
True. But I think Branch would also do a far better job at perfecting our farm system then Walt would. IMO, Richey would be ideal for today's game.
As far as Walt's overall grade? If I thought it was unfair to grade WK after his first year, due to his shortness of time in the GM job, and looking at what needed to be accomplished within this organization, then it is likewise unfair to grade Walt at this stage.
But Walt did take over an organization that was making some headway, especially in the farms, and not completely devoid of talent. There were better building blocks here.
What gets me with BobC and Walt though is.... I really don't know what their plan is?
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
True. But It's not Walt's fault that they were here prior to his taking over the GM job. It is to his credit though that, for the most part, he's not given up or sacrificed some of those young, quality players for this "win now" mantra. And Walt also can't do much with most of them due to contracts. A majority of our really big money contracts are with pitchers like Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero, who also all got raises in '09 too. Even if he wanted to, was there a trade market for them?
As for the additions?...
IMO, two of those trades (#1 and #2) were good moves. Yeah, I'm a fan of Dunn; but he most likely wasn't going to resign here, and no one could predict what was going to happen to the market and value of players like Dunn, Abreu, and others in this past off-season, and that they would end up signing for less then they wanted.Jocketty has made just three important moves in his tenure:
1. Traded Adam Dunn for Micah Owings
2. Traded Ryan Freel for Ramon Hernandez
3. Spent the off-season Free Agent budget on Willy Taveras
But still good moves. It doesn't lessen their importance just because they won't make an immediate impact. They have to continue to strengthen this farm system.You can say the signings of Latin-American youngsters is an important move, but that won't affect the Reds for several years.
I think there are also some other players too (like Belisle?). But it was addition via subtraction.Jocketty has shipped out Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Keppinger, Jeremy Affeldt, Ryan Freel, Javy Valentin, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, and Gary Majewski.
Nothing wrong with that. That's all any GM can do when it comes to those younger players - show patience and hope for continual improvement.If the Reds are to win more games than last year it will be due to last year's players simply playing better than they did last year. We should see lots of improvement from Bruce and Cueto. Some amount of improvement from Votto and Encarnacion.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
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