Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[mth123]

Great post, membengal!

I posed this question before and never got an answer, but does anyone know if the grass (or height of it) at GABP still plays a role in neutralizing the "hitter's park" label that the park has been given?

We know balls fly out at a higher rate than most parks, but I thought that ground balls were lost in the thick furry stuff.

If the grass still plays a role in weakening grounders, I would think that Willy could benefit from playing 81 games at GABP.

I'm searching for anything positive here.

Just saw this. Small ball teams usually were successful on turf with concrete IF, high bounces and fast rollers that get into the OF. The slow track approach can work until its adjusted to. Guys like Taveras don't hit the ball hard enough to deter teams from taking the slow roller away by simply playing in closer. The fast track, OTOH, does not allow the team to play deeper, because the speedy player will beat the longer throw. If they want to take advantage of this style, low grass and a hard surface is the way to go.

That means the team needs a stellar IF defense to prevent the opposition from beating them at their own game. The Reds have no such defense.

[IslandRed]

Basically, what would Taveras have to do in order to make his woeful inability to hit a ball with any authority, ever, not a millstone around this team's neck?

When it comes to NL leadoff hitters, because they come up with the bases empty fairly often, I'm generally not concerned about a guy having a noodle bat as long as it comes with good expected OBP and the ability to hustle himself around to score, e.g. Reggie Willits or Jacoby Ellsbury. If Tavares manages an OBP of .350 or better -- possible but certainly not probable, IMO -- and has a good year on the basepaths and in the outfield, he won't be dragging the team down. But if he goes all Corey Patterson on us? Well, I just hope they're ready to move fast to Dickerson and/or Stubbs.

[Degenerate39]

How much are the Reds paying him?

[Marc D]

Well, I just hope they're ready to move fast to Dickerson and/or Stubbs.

And admit that they signed Willy T when they had better, or at least equal, options in house already? Not likely.

[Raisor]

How much are the Reds paying him?

No one knows yet.

[blumj]

When it comes to NL leadoff hitters, because they come up with the bases empty fairly often, I'm generally not concerned about a guy having a noodle bat as long as it comes with good expected OBP and the ability to hustle himself around to score, e.g. Reggie Willits or Jacoby Ellsbury. If Tavares manages an OBP of .350 or better -- possible but certainly not probable, IMO -- and has a good year on the basepaths and in the outfield, he won't be dragging the team down. But if he goes all Corey Patterson on us? Well, I just hope they're ready to move fast to Dickerson and/or Stubbs.

Reggie Willits and Jacoby Ellsbury are both already struggling with the same problem: you will see nothing but strikes and IFers will play you close until you prove that you can hurt them with power. And this with Willits being naturally very patient, and Ellsbury being a slugger compared to Taverez.

[westofyou]

How much are the Reds paying him?

I'm betting 2 at 3.75 with the back end taking the bulk.


* 2 years (2009-10)
o signed by Cincinnati as a free agent 12/27/08
* 1 year/$1.975M (2008)
o re-signed by Colorado 1/18/08 (avoided arbitration)
o performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 500, 550, 600 PAs
o non-tendered by Colorado 12/12/2008
* 1 year/$0.402M (2007), renewed 3/07
* 1 year/$0.4M (2006), re-signed 3/06
* 1 year/$0.316M (2005), re-signed 2/05
* rights retained in trade 3/04, allowing him to go to minors after being selected in Rule 5 draft 12/03
* ML service: 3.028

[CougarQuest]

Just checking in to see if the sky fell again in Redszone land with every Reds acquisition.

What's the over/under on how many won't be fans of the Reds?

What's the over/under on how many feel this is the worst move ever made by the Reds?

What's the over/under on how many feel the Reds will be worst off than they were last year?

[Ltlabner]

So if I'm Chris Dickerson, I'm trying to figure out why the FO doesn't like my game but somehow think Willy Fricken Traveras is the answer to any sort of question.

I mean, did Dickerson fart in Dusty's soup or something?

[Ltlabner]

This signing combinded with the comment about the difficulty about signing a big bat tells me they are punting on 2009. Patching together a team with whatever cheap stopgaps can be had sounds like the direction BCast wants to go.

The big questions is whether he's playing it safe due to the uncertain economic outlook or if this is becomming BCasts MO. That is a couple of signings every year, patching together a team and keep telling everyone how you want to 'win now'.

[RedsManRick]

Norris Hopper has been WAY better on offense then Willy T in their careers.

OBP-367
SLG-.371
OPS-738
OPS+ 89

In fact, Hopper's career numbers look alot like Willy T's career YEAR.

Willy T 2007
OBP-.367
SLG-382
OPS-749
OPS+ 89

With more PA's Hopper would crash and burn, just like Willy T has. I'm just saying that the Reds already have a Taveras on the team.

Exactly. Tavares and Hopper have basically the exact same skill set. They make decent contact and run fast, but don't walk and don't hit for any power. They can only OBP at an acceptable level when they're bunting for singles at an unsustainable league-leading rate. And when they aren't doing that, they provide sub-replacement production.

For all the people who are saying "well, at least we're not going with Norris Hopper", you've got it backwards. We're going precisely with Norris Hopper; only we're guaranteeing him a spot on the 25 man roster for the next two years and our GM is stating that he's the solution to both our CF and leadoff problems.

Hopper's 2007 and Taveras' 2007 were frighteningly similar:

	 AVG/ OBP/ SLG	BABIP	BUH%
Hopper	.329/.371/.388	.369	56.3%
Taveras	.320/.367/.382	.371	64.4%

Both guys, in a partial season, put up a big batting average driven by an extremely high success rate bunting for base hits. Their isolated discipline and power were still pathetic. A dip in batting average, resulting from an expected regression in the success and/or frequency of bunting for base hits, would crater the rest of their production.

Because we realized Hopper's game was a house of cards and because he got hurt, he didn't get the opportunity to have his production tank. Taveras, because he was healthy, because he steal a base, and because he's a "proven vet" did get the chance. Predictably, his production fell off a cliff.

Walt's statement "He needs to get back to the way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago" is complete ignorance to the reality of how Taveras had a successful season. It's wishcasting at its most irresponsible. 2007 wasn't a peak production season due to the confluence of skill and experience during his late 20's. It was a classic luck driven career year. Apparently Jocketty's idea of a solution is relying on good luck.

Tavares is no better a solution than Hopper; He just costs more. Now, it's completely possible that Tavares manages to provide positive value. It just makes very little sense to rely on it -- particularly when doing so likely robs opportunity from somebody with a much higher ceiling and a much lower cost.

[Cyclone792]

The only word to sum up my feelings on this signing is disappointment. There just isn't any other way to put it; I'm disappointed in this franchise right now.

Unless the Reds are planning on a major move for either left field or shortstop - and it doesn't sound like that's going to happen - this team is just going to struggle to score runs. The on-base percentage looks abysmal, and the road slugging percentage isn't likely to be much better. What slugging we do get at this point is likely to be a mirage from the aid of the ballpark. Center field isn't improved one lick, and left field still has a gaping hole in it. And shortstop ... well it isn't going to work as of now, just like it didn't work last season.

This team is now counting on an overwhelming performance from the pitching staff to contend for the playoffs. Amongst that:

1) Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto need to combine for about 650 innings of sub 3.50 ERA pitching
2) Bronson Arroyo needs to have a little bit of luck on his side and turn in a performance closer to his 2006 than either his 2007 or 2008
3) Owings has to solidify the 5th slot with 4.50 ERA ball
4) The bullpen has to at least be a minimum of above average to good

Can some of those things happen? Sure. Can they all happen simultaneously? That'd be an awful bet, and it's not likely to happen. But unfortunately we need all those things to happen. Not only would we be counting on improved performance, we'd also be counting on perfect health from the entire pitching staff. We just know that's not likely to happen.

In a nutshell, for this team to compete for a playoff spot in 2009 we need to have a top 3 pitching staff in the NL. Do people really think that's likely? More importantly, do people want to depend on that happening?

I know I don't.

[Raisor]

In a nutshell, for this team to compete for a playoff spot in 2009 we need to have a top 3 pitching staff in the NL. Do people really think that's likely? More importantly, do people want to depend on that happening?

I know I don't.

As it stands right now, even assuming that the Reds find a LF that can create 90-100 runs, the team will need to have a RA of about 600 to make the playoffs.

If the team winds up with Jerry Hairston in LF, then they'll need to have a RA of about 550.

Volquez, Harrang, Cueto are good, but...

[_Sir_Charles_]

Hey, WV. Way to take it to my Bucks today. Wow. That was a butt kicking.

No kidding. That second half was embarrasing. But then again, I knew we weren't as good as we were ranked...especially after losing Lighty to injury. Either way though, WV looked fantastic.

[AmarilloRed]

I seem to recall Patterson had the job as our starting CF for two months, before he lost it because the Reds realized he was a disaster as a lead-off man. Patterson only got more playing time because of the rash of injuries. I expect if Taveras does as bad at lead-off as everyone expects, he will be banished to the bench. Unfortunately, it will be a lot harder to get rid of this contract.