Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[mbgrayson]

Well, I can think of ONE good thing to say: Taveras put up awesome numbers in GABP last year: .500/.600/.625 for an OPS of 1.225. Of course he only had 10 plate appearances....but if he can hit that well here in 2009....

[Krusty]

You know it is a slow offseason when we are all getting bent out of shape over the Reds acquiring Willy Taveras. I hate to see it when Jocketty acquires that righthanded hitter for the middle of the lineup.

[blumj]

Well, I can think of ONE good thing to say: Taveras put up awesome numbers in GABP last year: .500/.600/.625 for an OPS of 1.225. Of course he only had 10 plate appearances....but if he can hit that well here in 2009....

Answer: They gave up an extra base hit to Willy Taveras.

Question: How bad was the Reds defense last season?

[Raisor]

2. Willie Taveras's numbers in 2008, while fairly lousy, were still better than one Corey Patterson.

In 2008, Willy T was worth about +3 runs per 100 PA's then C-Patt.

Willy T would have needed to have a much better year in 08 to even reach "fairly lousy".

[Raisor]

You know it is a slow offseason when we are all getting bent out of shape over the Reds acquiring Willy Taveras. I hate to see it when Jocketty acquires that righthanded hitter for the middle of the lineup.

Krusty, have you actually read any of the stats the rest of us have been posting?

It's not like we're coming into this without any ammo.

[Krusty]

Krusty, have you actually read any of the stats the rest of us have been posting?

It's not like we're coming into this without any ammo.

I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

[kpresidente]

Basically we replaced David Ross and Ryan Freel with Ramon Hernandez and Willie Tavares.

Is that even a lateral move?

[Raisor]

I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

Do you get that this guy is going to have a net reduction on the team's RS/RA, or at the most no change at all? The Reds created 97 runs out of the leadoff spot last year. With a two year deal, and with what Walt has said in the Press Relase, this guy is going to leadoff in 09. If this guy gets 600-700 PA's, he going to create about 65-80 runs.

That's not going to help the team. That's going to be a net loss in RS, something the team is going to have problems doing anyway.

This team, even if it gets a "middle of the order RHB" type guy is going to have a real problem scoring 675 runs in 09.

If Walt winds up with JHJ out in LF, the team isn't going to score 650 runs.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

It's because Lincoln is a middle reliever, destined to see 1 inning of work in roughly 30-40% of the games this coming year.

Willy Taveras, given Dusty's managerial tendencies and Jocketty's comments, as long as he's healthy, will start ballgame after ballgame for the Reds over the next two seasons. Given days off, about 150 games next season, 9 innings per game, 3 or 4 PAs per game.

Every game, you'll hear the Public Address announcer say "Leading off for the Reds, the center fielder WILLY TAVERAS!" And, roughly 70% of the time, the Reds will begin the game with nobody on, 1 out.

[Ron Madden]

Do you get that this guy is going to have a net reduction on the team's RS/RA, or at the most no change at all? The Reds created 97 runs out of the leadoff spot last year. With a two year deal, and with what Walt has said in the Press Relase, this guy is going to leadoff in 09. If this guy gets 600-700 PA's, he going to create about 65-80 runs.

That's not going to help the team. That's going to be a net loss in RS, something the team is going to have problems doing anyway.

This team, even if it gets a "middle of the order RHB" type guy is going to have a real problem scoring 675 runs in 09.

If Walt winds up with JHJ out in LF, the team isn't going to score 650 runs.

NOTHING good can come of this.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Sir Charles

Who had the better season (these are real players from a real past season)?

1. .324/.381/.534 669 PA's
2. .266/.388/.569 681 PA's.

It's actually a trick question. They had essentially the same season, they just went about it in different ways.

Who had the better season? Who knows. The info you provided doesn't even come close to answering that question. If player 1 played gold glove caliber defense and player 2 was a statue out there, that would change things a bit. If player 1 scored 100 runs and player 2 only scored 10 runs. There are a ton of factors obviously. Now if you want to know which of the 2 I'd want based ONLY on those limited stats...I'd take #1 because he'd have the better odds of driving in runs by having more hits. But who knows with only that data.

What you're not getting is that high-IsoD players do not turn into production black holes as often as low-IsoD players. That's the point original point and you've done nothing to effectively contest it. Because Taveras has so little plate discipline, he's a complete negative when the hits aren't falling. That's not the case with high-IsoD players, because they have a highly-developed secondary on-base skill set.

Okay, I'll buy that they're not black holes AS OFTEN...but they're still black holes at times. And in regards to Taveras, I think he'll be more like he was in 2007, but if he's not...we still needed OF'ers, I don't want to rush the kids if they're not ready, and I don't see any options out there that are better in the FA market. At least none that'll be short term contracts for reasonable dollars.

So your response to the mountain of statistics and numbers thrown at you is that walks are not as good as hits because walks are less emotional?


Even if you are right, and the improved speed and defense does "balance ... out" the loss of Griffey and Dunn's offensive production, doesn't that mean the Reds have a losing season again? They need to replace Griffey and Dunn AND add something else.

Well, first off I have yet to see a "mountain" of statistics thrown at me. Secondly, I didn't say that walks are only less emotional. Walks fail to advance runners more than one base. Walks fail to force the defense to make a play. And walks don't generate managerial options. They're far from bad...but they're also far from being as good as a hit.

Yes, I do think we need to add more to be a winning team. Just not as much as some people here seem to think. I see an improved rotation, an improved bullpen, an improved defense over last season's starting team. I see young players with more MLB time under thier belts. And I see a young team coming together and jelling. If they start the season off well, I can see them gaining confidence VERY quickly. I think they'll be improved from last season, but still a year away from the playoffs. I don't see ANY moves out there THIS off-season that puts them in the playoffs for certain. But I can easily see us passing the Astros, Cards & Brewers for second place.

[Raisor]

NOTHING good can come of this.

Don't forget, Galctus and I BLAME YOU!

[mth123]

I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

If Mike Lincoln pitches well its a good sign. If not he'll get buried in mop-up duty. Its not the same as signing the definition of suck and giving him 600 PA.

[TRF]

Here is another thing. Taveras isn't going to suddenly develop power. He's moving to a park that suppresses doubles and triples. He'll need to hit .300+ AND increase his BB totals to career highs, 60+, in order for him to be even remotely effective. He needs to be something he's never been.

for 2 years.

[Ron Madden]

Don't forget, Galctus and I BLAME YOU!

I'll hush now.