Reds sign Willy Taveras to 2 year deal....

[mth123]

The reason it's not Dickerson/Hopper over Taveras is because we haven't filled the LF spot either. As of right now, we can't move onto Stubbs, Heisey, Henry & company because they're not ready as far as we know right now. ST will be a big determining factor for that. But how about this for a scenerio...Stubbs & company aren't ready for prime time. We don't sign a LF'er OR Taveras. Hopper's not over the injury or Bruce/Dickerson get injured. Now what? Taveras doesn't lock us into a long term commitment. We've still got options, now we just have more flexibility. That's it. I'm just stunned by the uproar. If we'd gotten a solid LF'er first and THEN signed Taveras as competition for Dickerson...I bet there'd still be a hissy-fit here. :O)

He most certainly is the starter. The GM said so, the Manager's track record says so and his two year deal says so. If he was merely an "alternative" it wouldn't be a two year deal. There certainly is a level of suck where Taveras can lose the job, but he sucks already and he was brought in to be the starter. He'd have to be Patterson bad to lose the job and given that its a two year deal, probably worse than that in 2009.

There are always alternatves. Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald are two signed this off-season. Guys are cut loose all the time. Willie Taveras is guaranteed suck.

[_Sir_Charles_]

It is an asset, once he's on base. No one here is arguing that it isn't (as long as his % of thefts is 80% or greater...)

What assurances does Walt offer (or you, or anyone) that Tavares will find his way on base over 600at-bats like a 1980 Dave Collins, 1987 Vince Coleman, or a 1989 Brett Butler (my examples from page 34 of this thread)? Why do you, or anyone, expect that Tavares will all of a sudden find his inner OBP daemon and become a useful asset to the Reds in 2009? Has he changed something fundamental about his game that the Reds know about because of Quirk? Is that it? Is there something to hang our hats on with regard to hoping that he will be able to get on enough to not affirmitively harm this team in 2009? If so, what is it, other than blind hope?

I don't see any assurances. Heck, I don't even see any real HOPE of that happening. But take Taveras back off the roster. Where's the replacement solution? Where? If you say Dickerson...then where's the LF solution? If you say Hopper...then where's the backup if an injury occurs? If you say Edwin to LF and Dickerson to CF...then where's the 3B option? It sucks...we're shorthanded anyway you look at it. We needed an OF'er desperately, but we didn't want to handcuff ourselves with a longterm deal or a big contract. The CF market is pitifully thin and beggers can't be chosers.

[dougdirt]

If they don't sign a LF'er...yeah, they'll use Dickerson as the starter. I really don't think there's any doubt about that. But to put him in over Taveras as the starting CF'er when all we've really seen is a VERY small sample size of 100+ ab's...that's stretching it. And no, I don't think they'll sit a vet over a rookie completely. I think they'll give the rookie some starts occasionally and work him into the lineup if he's performing well. That's exactly why I like the signing. It gives them that option. Without that option, they'll be forced into PUSHING that rookie into the starting job if an injury occurs to the only 3 other OF'ers we have....not an unlikely occurance given Hopper & Dickerson's injury history. So yes...Really.

I think taking a player who always had under achieved but always had a ton of potential (Dickerson) who finally started piecing things together (both in the minor leagues for a year and a half before his major league stint and that major league stint) is a much better bet than a known terrible player.

[Highlifeman21]

Again, you don't see what I'm getting at. There is no way the Reds or pretty much any team can compete with the Yankees for star players when they deal out over $400 million for three ballplayers. And the free agent market isn't that great this year. You acquired a ballplayer that is coming off the worst season of his career. Odds are the numbers will be better than the 2008 season. There is no long term commitment and it buys time for the future centerfielder of the Reds, Stubbs, to develop and not be rushed.

That is if Stubbs is ever ready to play at the MLB level.

[membengal]

I don't see any assurances. Heck, I don't even see any real HOPE of that happening. But take Taveras back off the roster. Where's the replacement solution? Where? If you say Dickerson...then where's the LF solution? If you say Hopper...then where's the backup if an injury occurs? If you say Edwin to LF and Dickerson to CF...then where's the 3B option? It sucks...we're shorthanded anyway you look at it. We needed an OF'er desperately, but we didn't want to handcuff ourselves with a longterm deal or a big contract. The CF market is pitifully thin and beggers can't be chosers.

CF---Dickerson.

LF---any of a number of options who are still on the market or by trade. We are WAY too early in this process to have panicked. If this move was made out of panic, well then, laughable. I have laid out realistic drop-back scenarios for LF/3b in other threads, and won't go into them here, because none of them alter the basic math that Tavarers is no better than Dickerson, and potentially FAR worse.

[dougdirt]

I don't see any assurances. Heck, I don't even see any real HOPE of that happening. But take Taveras back off the roster. Where's the replacement solution? Where? If you say Dickerson...then where's the LF solution? If you say Hopper...then where's the backup if an injury occurs? If you say Edwin to LF and Dickerson to CF...then where's the 3B option? It sucks...we're shorthanded anyway you look at it. We needed an OF'er desperately, but we didn't want to handcuff ourselves with a longterm deal or a big contract. The CF market is pitifully thin and beggers can't be chosers.

The other option was Dickerson. The LF option was Free Agency or a trade. Neither of which was going to result in the amount of suck that a Willy Taveras would. Adding bad players just to fill spots does not create solutions, just more problems.... such as why are better players on the bench and why is a roster spot taken up by a terrible player for two years.

[OnBaseMachine]

There is no long term commitment and it buys time for the future centerfielder of the Reds, Stubbs, to develop and not be rushed.

Sorry, but Redszone has already deemed Stubbs a bust after two years.

[Ltlabner]

I'm rather surprised by that answer. Somebody who swipes 30 to 60 bags a year and is only getting tossed out 10 a year isn't good on the base paths?

Yes.

First, look at the rate stats, not the counting states. He's only stolen bases at an effective rate once out of four years. That's an "aberration" not a trend.

If all this speed was helping him take extra bases and stretch singles into doubles, why doesn't it show up in his EqA (which includes base running), his value over replacement level players or the number of runs he scores? It should show up somewhere, yet it doesn't.

The getting home part is dependant in a rather large part on his teammates, don't you agree? Advancing bases via the steal is never a bad thing...is it?

I agree run production depends on your teammates. He's gone from a team that was in the World Series two years ago to the Reds. Are you arguing that the Reds will be more effective at giving him a chance to use his speeds than did the Rockies?

[Highlifeman21]

Wow, what a depressing lot. Can NOBODY remain optimistic? Last year was Taveras' worst year. A down year. Why can't anybody see him making improvements? He's young, quick, has hit for a decent average normally, is an excellent baserunner. Yes, he has little to no power and he doesn't walk enough. But I don't see a SINGLE player on any team that doesn't have SOME flaws. What I'd prefer to look at are his GOOD aspects. Considering that it's only costing us cash and not prospects and it's only for 2 years, I like this move. I love Dickerson, but he's far from proven. Our other minor league options just simply aren't ready yet. And instead of rushing them, we've now got a stopgap until they are. I forsee a very solid year from Taveras this year....and a second place finish.

Aside from Willy Taveras having speed, what are his GOOD aspects?

2nd place as in 1st place being the worst record in MLB, and you get the #1 draft pick in the 2010 draft, b/c you can't possibly be serious that the Reds will finish 2nd in the NL Central.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Clearly not. His EqA is still miserable. His value over a replacement player is still miserable. His ability to score more runs than an average centerfielder is still miserable.

If his speed is producing all this benefit, shouldn't we see the effects in his value somewhere?

The only benefit his speed brings is the mystical "pressure on the pitcher". That's not a bad thing. But answer me this...is it worth harming your team by having an proven offensive zero solely to get a perceived benefit the times when he is on base?

Do you have any quantifiable evidence that his speed has produced any tangible results?

No, I don't. But then YOU also haven't see what his speed produces in our lineup yet either. What his speed produces is dependent upon his teammates driving him in. Do you really expect him to steal his way around on his own everytime? No. But I do expect him to steal his way into scoring position quite often after he reaches first. After that, it's up to his teammates and his manager to move him around.

I get this striking feeling that everybody here thinks I like Willy Taveras as a player. I don't. He stinks. It's the deal that I don't dislike. It's the giving time to the kids that I don't dislike. It's the extra body that didn't cost us a prospect that I don't dislike. It's the extra team speed and the extra stolen bases that I don't dislike. It's his nice defense in a prime defensive position that I don't dislike. His hitting abilities...I dislike.

[durl]

I fail to see how this signing signals the end of the Reds franchise. Taveras was 2nd in ROY a couple of years ago, he's managed to reduce his K ratio while still being an incredible base stealer (91% success rate).

For the period 2005-2007, Taveras has put up decent numbers. His OBP is almost identical to Josh Hamilton's (.367 to .368); his BA is similar to Matt Holliday's (.320 to .326). If you extrapolate out the number of games played, his TB count is not that far behind Pat Burrell.

I don't think he's the single player that will make the Reds a playoff team but I'm really not buying into this doom-and-gloom talk around here. Let's just hope that his numbers last year were an anamoly and he'll get back to his pre-2008 numbers...but keep his SB count up.

[RedlegNation]

I think you are right about the OF market and Walt knows it. $11 Million for Dye in 2009 is going to be way over-priced and dealing prospects be it Bailey or anyone else for the right to pay it is nuts.

I agree, and though I've been pretty displeased with most of Jocketty's moves, not trading for Dye was a good decision. Just didn't make sense for this team, as currently constructed, to go out and spend that type of money on a player like Dye.

I think we just need to recognize that there is NO chance the Reds are going to be competitive in 2009 and hope the front office can make moves to prepare for 2010.

After a decade of losing, it makes me sick to my stomach to type that.

[dougdirt]

I fail to see how this signing signals the end of the Reds franchise. Taveras was 2nd in ROY a couple of years ago, he's managed to reduce his K ratio while still being an incredible base stealer (91% success rate).

For the period 2005-2007, Taveras has put up decent numbers. His OBP is almost identical to Josh Hamilton's (.367 to .368); his BA is similar to Matt Holliday's (.320 to .326). If you extrapolate out the number of games played, his TB count is not that far behind Pat Burrell.

I don't think he's the single player that will make the Reds a playoff team but I'm really not buying into this doom-and-gloom talk around here. Let's just hope that his numbers last year were an anamoly and he'll get back to his pre-2008 numbers...but keep his SB count up.

ROY tells us what? Other than most BBWAA don't know much about baseball that is.

For the period of 2005-2007 Taveras didn't have a .367 OBP. That was one year and it was driven by extreme luck, not skill. Same goes for that batting average.

Even his Pre 2008 numbers suck. He has produced an OPS over .685 one time in his entire career. Once. Once. Once. Think about that. The Reds just gave him a 2 year deal, coming off the worst season of his pathetic career. I don't even know the right word to use to describe how bad of an idea that actually is.

[_Sir_Charles_]

So we take guys suited for CF, brought in a worse CF only to play other, better options for CF, in LF? My brain hurts.

The issue with that line of thinking is we didn't need to move onto the Stubbs/Heisey set of guys. WE HAD A CF ALREADY. We needed a LF. Walts solution was to get another CF who wasn't as good as the current ones he had and play a group of CF that are better than his current CF in LF.

Of course we needed a LF'er. Have you seen us sign one yet? No. I firmly believe that Walt is trying to sign one. But with the market and his current struggles to do so...it was time to get an emergency plan. Does anybody here want us to sign a LF'er for a very long contract and get gouged? How many here want Pat Burrel for a 6 year deal for 100 million? I don't think any Reds fan wants us to overpay and cripple our future by doing that. I also don't think any Reds fan wants us to deal away our future by passing out our prospects for aging LF'ers who's numbers are on the decline either. Apparently, that's what Walt's options are for LF right now. So if it turns out that he can't get a good deal for a LF'er...then don't sign one. Go with Dickerson for this season and grab a LF'er at the trade deadline, or next offseason, or wait until a farmhand is ready (possibly quite soon).

[dougdirt]

December is not time for an emergency plan. February is. Still doesn't change the fact that they went with the emergency plan for a CF when they already had one.