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Thread: A question from out in leftfield.....

  1. #1
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    A question from out in leftfield.....

    The Reds have what most fans consider a vacancy in left field this off season. Entering the free agent market there were several "big name" left fielders available (arguably the biggest crop of namers in several seasons).

    Why haven't the Reds filled this apparent hole yet?

    ****I decided that given the options that would've been in the poll, some people might've wanted to select multiple options so in lieu of options that I've contrived, what do you think the reason is??????
    Last edited by jojo; 01-01-2009 at 04:33 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #2
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Moises Alou (42) - Old and oft injured
    Garret Anderson (37) - Ditto
    Milton Bradley (31) - Often injured head case in a young clubhouse
    Emil Brown (34) Been off for a couple of years
    Pat Burrell (32) - Left handed bat, too expensive, Dunn-lite
    Adam Dunn (29) - Unfortunately, time to turn the page
    Cliff Floyd (36) -Often injured left handed bat
    Luis Gonzalez (41) -Older than old
    Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)- May happen
    Gabe Kapler (33) -Often injured
    Craig Monroe (32) -Hmmf
    Jay Payton (36) -Fifth outfielder at this point
    Manny Ramirez (37) - Waiting on three expensive years
    So Taguchi (39) -Old extra part type

    Maybe the Reds figure there just isn't a smooth fit out there.
    Last edited by Spitball; 01-01-2009 at 04:45 PM.
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  4. #3
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Burrell is a right-handed hitter, and Bradley is rumored to have signed with the Cubs. It's also worth exploring the possibility of converting a center or right fielder to left field.

  5. #4
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Although I don't really like it, I have a feeling that Walt will end up signing Pat Burrell. If Dunn is not an option and Bradley is with the Cubs, he's the one that bothers me the least.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #5
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    They're going el cheapo with a patchwork approach. Until the cavalry arrives.

    Or a trade including one of their starters can be made.

  8. #7
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    The FO and the fanbase have unrealistic expectations. We want a player who is better than Adam Dunn, but will come cheaper. Well, all the good players cost money. And all the cheap players have warts. But without making a decision, Jocketty is committing a far worse sin. Sitting on his hands is the worst thing he could do. The Reds will go nowhere with Chris Dickerson or Norris Hopper in LF. That's no OF depth!

    I think the best thing they can do is to go ahead and pay the price for Nick Swisher if he's available (an important factor in it's own right). He's a guy both "sides" can agree on; the old school likes his grinder attitude and the new school likes his OPS.

    Swisher has many attractive features:

    -He won't be cheap but his $ price isn't outrageous. He's set to make $5.3M in 09, $6.75M in 10, $9M in 11, and a $10.25M club option in 12 with a $1M buyout. That means Swisher would only be 31 years old in the last year of control including the option. Now, I know some might think he makes too much at the end of that contract. But with the way the market is trending, especially if the economy improves, I expect $10.25M to be a bargain in 2012.

    -He will only be 28 years old in 2009.

    -He can't handle CF, but he is athletic enough to play the corner OF effectively. He has a career +6.3 UZR in LF and +14.2 UZR in RF. He's also fair at 1B.

    -He is a career .244/.354/.451 and most of it was spent in Oakland's cavernous park. Despite his dissapointing 2008, Swisher still has all of the skills that have made him valuable throughout his career: his .113 isoD was higher than his career isoD of .110. His isoP of .191 was within reach of his career .207 isoP. The drop in isoP can likely be explained by his decline in doubles from 5.5 doubles per 100 AB in his career to 4.2 doubles per 100 AB in 2008. It's easy to see the problem in 2008 was BA; Swisher hit only .219. But why did the BA fall so precipitously? His pitch recognition skillls didn't decline. He still hit the ball hard. His LD% went up and his GB% and FB% were consistent. He didn't even strike out much more than usual (25.5 K per 100 AB for his career and 27.2 K per 100 AB in 2008).

    Nick Swisher is younger than he who shall not be named and his overall package is comparable. It would cost prospects to acquire him, but his contract is very friendly. I would part with a couple of good prospects to acquire Nick Swisher...
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 01-01-2009 at 06:43 PM.
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.
    That's a sizeable hunk of change getting lumped on to the payroll. I wouldn't look for that anytime soon.

  10. #9
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

  11. #10
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  12. #11
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.
    What do you think players get paid nowadays?

    Swisher has a career adjusted OPS+ of 112 and even after an off-year (caused by an extremely low .251 BABIP) has put up a three-year OPS of .817 (including two 120+ aOPS seasons). The guy's an excellent bounce-back candidate as both his 2008 IsoD and IsoP numbers were in line with his career norms. That's certainly worth 7.02M per season over the next three years and should Swisher not be worth 10.25M in 2012, the 1M buyout pushes that to an average of only 7.35M. Nothing at all wrong with that contract.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  13. #12
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Swisher would be a good LF target at this point.

    He would have been a bad CF target, though. But I guess Willy T. and his alleged "defense" have locked down that position now.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  14. #13
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    I think Swisher would be a great target.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    They should have grabbed him when the White Sox were selling him, then. The Yankees are smart enough to know he's a better player than Xavier Nady.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Re: A question from out in leftfield.....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.
    I'm not sure I share your pessimism. Nor do I share the enthusiasm for either Baldelli or Swisher. They're fine, but they've both got red flags attached to them.


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