BCS Title Game Predictions

[improbus]

I'm torn on this one. On one hand, I do think that the Big 12 is overrated. UC was their best out of conference win. But, the SEC was up and down this year too, see Ole Miss beating TTU and Alabama losing to Utah. My gut says that Florida is too good all around for Oklahoma to handle, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Oklahoma put up 50.

[LoganBuck]

Florida 49 - Oklahoma 27

The Big 12 hasn't shown well in bowl games. They are allowing points at the same alarming clip, but aren't fairing as well offensively. Sure they have gotten some wins, but those games have been ugly.

[MWM]

I still remained surprised at how people let conferences dominate how they think about individual teams. The conferences are not playing each other. The other teams in the conference have nothing to do with the two teams playing for the national championship. It's Florida against Oklahoma, not the Big 12 versus the SEC.

[improbus]

I still remained surprised at how people let conferences dominate how they think about individual teams. The conferences are not playing each other. The other teams in the conference have nothing to do with the two teams playing for the national championship. It's Florida against Oklahoma, not the Big 12 versus the SEC.

I understand your frustration (I believe we've had this argument before), but conference play and performance gives us a context for each team. The fact that Texas Tech, a supposedly high level Big 12 team, lost to a mid-to-low level SEC team gives us a little context. I am not saying SEC > BIG 12, therefore, FLORIDA > OKLAHOMA. What I am saying is that I don't know what to think of Oklahoma. The SEC out of conference beat Clemson, FSU, ASU, TTU, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. The Big 12 beat WVU, Illinois, Northwestern, Clemson, Cincy, TCU, and possibly OSU. That provides some context. It does not provide a definitive answer (see Alabama - Utah). I see the SEC's OOC schedule as slightly stronger which helps Florida's argument.

[MWM]

I understand your frustration (I believe we've had this argument before), but conference play and performance gives us a context for each team. The fact that Texas Tech, a supposedly high level Big 12 team, lost to a mid-to-low level SEC team gives us a little context. I am not saying SEC > BIG 12, therefore, FLORIDA > OKLAHOMA. What I am saying is that I don't know what to think of Oklahoma. The SEC out of conference beat Clemson, FSU, ASU, TTU, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. The Big 12 beat WVU, Illinois, Northwestern, Clemson, Cincy, TCU, and possibly OSU. That provides some context. It does not provide a definitive answer (see Alabama - Utah). I see the SEC's OOC schedule as slightly stronger which helps Florida's argument.

Well, the clear second best SEC team lost, and lost convincingly, to a Mountain West team. I just can't wrap my mind around how Ole Miss beating Texas Tech has anything to do with Florida versus Oklahoma. Texas Tech completely disappeared after the loss to OU. They were a completely different team.

Also, I think people put way too much stock in the sweeping implications of bowl games. For one, I think the fact that teams have 4 weeks to prepare for these games makes it difficult to draw the types of conclusions people want to draw. So much can change in that long of a timeframe preparing for a single game. Would the result of TTU again Miss have been different had they played in the middle of the season when TTU was playing at their best and Ole Miss was still trying to discover themselves? Maybe not, but I don't look at one game and draw absolutel conclusions. Ole Miss beat Texas Tech yesterday because they played better. I don't think it means anything other than that.

And I think there's some fear of calling out the SEC as weak, because afterall it's the SEC and you're likely to get railed on by the SEC contingent always in place to put all the other inferior conferenes in their rightful place. But I try to be as objective as possible and have no problem saying that while most years the SEC is obviously the strongest conference, this year they really weren't that good at all. So when folks try to discredit Big 12 teams because the conference wasn't that good, why don't they apply the same logic to Florida? Let's be realistic, who really did Florida beat this year other than Alabama in the title game? No one special, IMO. And even Alabama was never as good as they hype. So Florida is really the only top caliber team in the SEC this year, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I think they are REALLY good and probably the second best team in the country (I think USC would handle Florida quite easily in a bowl game), and will most likely win the BCS title game, but that's because they have a good team. They have a great offense and a pretty good defense. That has nothing at all to do with the SEC, who I think provided very little test to them this year.

You could go all over the place trying to map some kind of logical conclusions about conferences from bowl games. I don't care how many bowl games the Pac-10 won, I still think they were a very weak conference this year. Sample sizes of bowl games are way to small to draw solid conclusions, IMO. I so wish we saw more big time OOC conference games during the season. It would be easier that way.

[LoganBuck]

I still remained surprised at how people let conferences dominate how they think about individual teams. The conferences are not playing each other. The other teams in the conference have nothing to do with the two teams playing for the national championship. It's Florida against Oklahoma, not the Big 12 versus the SEC.

If what you are saying is aimed at me, I was trying to provide a context about the Big 12. All season long, the defense in the Big 12 was kind of a running joke with scores like 66-45 showing up with regularity. We have gotten to bowl season and those teams are still scoring points, but not at the same level, and they are giving up points, and big plays. I see Florida as good enough on defense to slow down Oklahoma. I don't think Oklahoma can slow down Florida.

I predict a championship game with 76 points being scored. It should be fun to watch.

[MWM]

If what you are saying is aimed at me,

Well, itreally wasn't "aimed" at anyone. One of the downsides to this medium of interaction, is that no one can tell the tone in which things are being typed. I was expressing an observation that I see not just here, but all over. And I was offering a different viewpoint.

I, too, think Florida will win because they're better.

[LoganBuck]

Well, itreally wasn't "aimed" at anyone. One of the downsides to this medium of interaction, is that no one can tell the tone in which things are being typed. I was expressing an observation that I see not just here, but all over. And I was offering a different viewpoint.

I, too, think Florida will win because they're better.

No problem, I just thought you were talking about my comment. I too grow loathsome of conference commentary. In my opinion bowl records of the conferences are worthless measures of conference quality. It is all about the matchups. Georgia Tech - LSU is a perfect example. GT could not have picked a worse matchup for their offense. Same goes for Florida State - Wisconsin. Wisconsin happened to get the worst matchup for them. Florida State is big enough to matchup with Wisconsin, and fast enough to be real trouble. Any other ACC team outside of Miami, and they are going to be evenly matched.

[Caseyfan21]

I will use my tried and tested formula that accurately worked to predict last season's National Championship game, the World Series winner, and last season's Superbowl winner. I always pick the team I do not want to win. So this year the NCAA Football National Champion will be Florida.

[benchrosemorgan]

fla-30
uo-20

tex-27
ohio st. 20

[Blimpie]

I saw an interesting stat the other day...

If Florida wins the game, it would only be the third time in history that a conference won 3 consecutive national titles.

The SEC did it last in 1978-1980 (Alabama, Alabama, Georgia). Before that, it was the Big 10 in 1940-1942 (Minnesota, Minnesota, Ohio State).

I look for the SEC to win it again this year: Florida 27 Oklahoma 24

[OnBaseMachine]

I saw an interesting stat the other day...

If Florida wins the game, it would only be the third time in history that a conference won 3 consecutive national titles.

The SEC did it last in 1978-1980 (Alabama, Alabama, Georgia). Before that, it was the Big 10 in 1940-1942 (Minnesota, Minnesota, Ohio State).

I look for the SEC to win it again this year: Florida 27 Oklahoma 24

Cal won three straight National Championships back in the 1920's as part of the Pacific Coast Conference.

[Blimpie]

Cal won three straight National Championships back in the 1920's as part of the Pacific Coast Conference.

I saw where Cal won it in 1920--but then but then not again during that decade...You are not thinking about Cornell are you?

In any event, perhaps the stat I heard was involving the "modern era" or something like that.

[OnBaseMachine]

I saw where Cal won it in 1920--but then but then not again during that decade...You are not thinking about Cornell are you?

In any event, perhaps the stat I heard was involving the "modern era" or something like that.

They won it in 1920, 1921, and 1922.

http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div...nal_champs.php

[Handofdeath]

I think some perspective is needed here. I'm reading on this board and all over the internet about how much of a shocker Ole Miss pulled off beating Texas Tech, and make no mistake it was an upset. But, it's not like Mississippi was some 6-6 Notre Dame team going to a bowl on reputation alone. This was an 8 win team ranked in the Top 25 and who was 2nd in the SEC West. All four of their losses were by a combined 19 points and every team they lost to wound up going to a bowl. Texas Tech was out of gas and Mississippi just outplayed them because they are flat out good. Don't believe me? The #1 ranked Florida has lost just one game this year.

They lost to Ole Miss.

Oklahoma 56
Florida 24