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Thread: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    #26 may be harsh, but the Reds system is in a lull at the moment. Turning out Votto, Cueto and Bruce in a year was heady stuff, but the remaining kids on the farm in no way resembled those three players circa 2007 (or even 2006). The problem with the system is the starting pitching on the farm is flat out poor. The position players lack a certain wow factor too - Frazier and Alonso profile more as steady players than annual MVP candidates. I've got nothing against steady players, but no one gushes over them while they're in the minors.

    The Brewers and Cardinals are the class of the division in terms of the farm system at the moment. The Pirates have the most drool-inducing top end prospects (Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon). The Cubs have power arms and shortstops. The Astros are a joke.

    The Reds have a lot of kids with something to prove in 2009. If they do, then the plaudits will follow, but I think it's fair for the jury to be out on the Reds system at this moment.
    M2, in your honest assessment, have the REDS' overall organizational ranking taken a step backwards under Jockety? There are many ways to assess this. Has he developed what he inherited properly? Has he improved it at all? Has he stood pat too much? etc...

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  3. #47
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    M2, in your honest assessment, have the REDS' overall organizational ranking taken a step backwards under Jockety? There are many ways to assess this. Has he developed what he inherited properly? Has he improved it at all? Has he stood pat too much? etc...
    I don't think Jocketty's really had anything to do with it as of yet. He spent last year running Krivsky's system.

    Krivsky has set the modern Reds gold standard for how to run a system. What the pipeline accomplished in 2006-8 was remarkable when you consider that almost every kid on the farm was struggling under DanO's regime. In fact you probably have to go back to Bill Bergesch to find a Reds GM who ran a similarly productive farm system.

    Unfortunately the one thing that didn't happen under Krivsky was the selection of impact players with the top picks. Stubbs and Mesoraco may yet turn out to be good major league players, but they aren't making superstar fairies dance in anyone's head. The club also didn't collect many toolsy players (who tend to go supernova up the ratings charts when they play well) or notable power arms. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but scouts don't get to see every game, so they tend to latch onto the obvious. What the Reds don't have in the system at this moment is a lot of players with obvious gifts.

    Now, a kid like Todd Frazier may turn out to be a very good major leaguer, but he'll probably be taken a bit for granted until that happens ... or at least until he posts some gaudy numbers in the upper minors.

    Anyway, the charge for the Jocketty regime in 2009 is to have some hitters dominate (none really did in 2008) and have some starting pitchers put together a full season of excellence (a half season of Daryl Thompson was as close as anyone got in 2008). And I don't know that a lull in the system can be avoided seeing that the team went from the wilderness to three impact rookies in 2008. Fits and starts may be the theme of the next few years.
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think Jocketty's really had anything to do with it as of yet. He spent last year running Krivsky's system.

    Krivsky has set the modern Reds gold standard for how to run a system. What the pipeline accomplished in 2006-8 was remarkable when you consider that almost every kid on the farm was struggling under DanO's regime. In fact you probably have to go back to Bill Bergesch to find a Reds GM who ran a similarly productive farm system.

    Unfortunately the one thing that didn't happen under Krivsky was the selection of impact players with the top picks. Stubbs and Mesoraco may yet turn out to be good major league players, but they aren't making superstar fairies dance in anyone's head. The club also didn't collect many toolsy players (who tend to go supernova up the ratings charts when they play well) or notable power arms. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but scouts don't get to see every game, so they tend to latch onto the obvious. What the Reds don't have in the system at this moment is a lot of players with obvious gifts.

    Now, a kid like Todd Frazier may turn out to be a very good major leaguer, but he'll probably be taken a bit for granted until that happens ... or at least until he posts some gaudy numbers in the upper minors.

    Anyway, the charge for the Jocketty regime in 2009 is to have some hitters dominate (none really did in 2008) and have some starting pitchers put together a full season of excellence (a half season of Daryl Thompson was as close as anyone got in 2008). And I don't know that a lull in the system can be avoided seeing that the team went from the wilderness to three impact rookies in 2008. Fits and starts may be the theme of the next few years.
    Spot on post, as usual M2.

    The Reds have fantastic organizational depth and the makings of a system that will turn out a lot of quality major leaguers. What it doesn't have is a lot of gaudy star-power at the top -- the kids people have been raving about since AAU ball that made headlines on draft day when they signed.

    For years, it'd been the opposite with the franchise; a Dunn here, a Kearns there, and then lots and lots of AAAA ballers and toolsy players who never put it all together. The William Bergollas and Rey Olmedos of the minor league world.
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Was Jocketty known as a draft and develop GM in STL? I know his work in finding pieces for the major league club but I'm not really familiar with his record in developing the overall STL organization. Pujols was obviously the gold nugget but I'm not sure how much of that was Jocketty
    More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can't wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that's not only better, but also more directly involves me.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by IowaRed View Post
    Was Jocketty known as a draft and develop GM in STL? I know his work in finding pieces for the major league club but I'm not really familiar with his record in developing the overall STL organization. Pujols was obviously the gold nugget but I'm not sure how much of that was Jocketty
    Jocketty, from what I've seen, doesn't have a great record as a draft and develop guy... Most of their success came from working with a higher budget, and risk/reward signings like Carpenter. Yeah, they hit on Pujols, but that's about the only one. Guys with big upside like Anthony Reyes never panned out.
    Jocketty is good at plugging in role players to make everything work though. It's just now, based on the success of their last draft, that their farm is starting to climb again.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Jocketty's draft record doesn't matter much, because the GM doesn't really deal much with the draft. Thats a lot more on the scouting director and our current guy has a strong track record.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Jocketty's draft record doesn't matter much, because the GM doesn't really deal much with the draft. Thats a lot more on the scouting director and our current guy has a strong track record.
    Jocketty still has some pull there doesn't he? I have a bunch of friends that are strong Cardinals fans, and when we got Jocketty, they told me to expect way less drafting of HS players.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Jocketty still has some pull there doesn't he? I have a bunch of friends that are strong Cardinals fans, and when we got Jocketty, they told me to expect way less drafting of HS players.
    Sure, Jocketty has some pull.... but he is going to listen to his scouting director who is going to listen to his scouts. We still have the same scouting director and the same scouts as we have for the last few years.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think Jocketty's really had anything to do with it as of yet. He spent last year running Krivsky's system.

    Krivsky has set the modern Reds gold standard for how to run a system. What the pipeline accomplished in 2006-8 was remarkable when you consider that almost every kid on the farm was struggling under DanO's regime. In fact you probably have to go back to Bill Bergesch to find a Reds GM who ran a similarly productive farm system.

    Unfortunately the one thing that didn't happen under Krivsky was the selection of impact players with the top picks. Stubbs and Mesoraco may yet turn out to be good major league players, but they aren't making superstar fairies dance in anyone's head. The club also didn't collect many toolsy players (who tend to go supernova up the ratings charts when they play well) or notable power arms. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but scouts don't get to see every game, so they tend to latch onto the obvious. What the Reds don't have in the system at this moment is a lot of players with obvious gifts.

    Now, a kid like Todd Frazier may turn out to be a very good major leaguer, but he'll probably be taken a bit for granted until that happens ... or at least until he posts some gaudy numbers in the upper minors.

    Anyway, the charge for the Jocketty regime in 2009 is to have some hitters dominate (none really did in 2008) and have some starting pitchers put together a full season of excellence (a half season of Daryl Thompson was as close as anyone got in 2008). And I don't know that a lull in the system can be avoided seeing that the team went from the wilderness to three impact rookies in 2008. Fits and starts may be the theme of the next few years.
    IMO Krivsky's system worked because of DanO's, not despite it. That isn't to say DanO had a good system, or even a clue. What he did do however protected the young arms. More serendipitous than design, but arm surgeries all but disappeared under DanO. That likely helped Krivsky. The take a first pitch, while idiotic, may have helped some hitters. Not necessarily with pitch recognition as pitchers were grooving fastballs on the first pitch, but with the idea of patience at the plate. It didn't do a thing for top talent guys like Votto, but it might have helped some fringe prospects up their value. Krivsky was able to peddle those prospects for decent returns. Can Walt?
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think Jocketty's really had anything to do with it as of yet. He spent last year running Krivsky's system.

    Krivsky has set the modern Reds gold standard for how to run a system. What the pipeline accomplished in 2006-8 was remarkable when you consider that almost every kid on the farm was struggling under DanO's regime. In fact you probably have to go back to Bill Bergesch to find a Reds GM who ran a similarly productive farm system.

    Unfortunately the one thing that didn't happen under Krivsky was the selection of impact players with the top picks. Stubbs and Mesoraco may yet turn out to be good major league players, but they aren't making superstar fairies dance in anyone's head. The club also didn't collect many toolsy players (who tend to go supernova up the ratings charts when they play well) or notable power arms. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but scouts don't get to see every game, so they tend to latch onto the obvious. What the Reds don't have in the system at this moment is a lot of players with obvious gifts.

    Now, a kid like Todd Frazier may turn out to be a very good major leaguer, but he'll probably be taken a bit for granted until that happens ... or at least until he posts some gaudy numbers in the upper minors.

    Anyway, the charge for the Jocketty regime in 2009 is to have some hitters dominate (none really did in 2008) and have some starting pitchers put together a full season of excellence (a half season of Daryl Thompson was as close as anyone got in 2008). And I don't know that a lull in the system can be avoided seeing that the team went from the wilderness to three impact rookies in 2008. Fits and starts may be the theme of the next few years.
    Thanks, bro, for sticking your neck out on that. Very nice post.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I'm hoping our "B"-level players can be packaged into a few "A-"-level players.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I think we see some Reds prospects jump up the charts. Once the players get out of Sarasota and the FSL they really seem to come quickly. My guess is that players like Frazier, Alonzo, and Francisco tear up AA until June and then move up to AAA around the minor league All Star break. If that happens they will all be highly ranked.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Edabbs44 and M2 are pretty much spot on.

    If Law's criteria irks some, look at the Reds farm this way.... pretend the Reds had a crack at an upper tier major leaguer that could put them over the top for a couple of years.... what from the current farm would get the trade done?

    Is Law really off his rockers?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Yes, Law is off his rockers.

    The Reds farm system is average at worst according to Baseball. JJ Cooper thinks it's better than that. I think 12-15 is fair.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-25-2009 at 12:18 AM.
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Yes, Law is off his rockers.

    The Reds farm system is average at worst. It probably ranks around 12-15.
    I dunno OBM...

    Looking at RedsZone's group effort to rank our prospects, there's plenty of question marks even in the Top 10, much less the rest of the list.

    We all hope Yonder Alonso will prove to be the next big thing, but will he?

    Frazier will probably end up being a serviceable MLB player, but IMO he won't be an everyday star. He'll be a nice guy to have in the future, but certainly not the guy you build a lineup around.

    Soto's probably the biggest question mark in our Top 10...

    Stubbs... well... the guy can play D, that's for sure. But, can he hit? Can he stay healthy?

    Valaika is the man without a position. He won't be a SS as a MLB player, so why are they wasting his time and the organization's time playing him as one in the minors? IMO, he'll be a more legit prospect once the Reds figure out where to put him on the diamond.

    After Valaika, huge drop off in talent....

    IMO, the Reds farm has a lot to prove after Cueto, Votto and Bruce making the big team in 2008. There's not much left down on the farm in terms of guys that are "sure things"


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