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Thread: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I dunno OBM...

    Looking at RedsZone's group effort to rank our prospects, there's plenty of question marks even in the Top 10, much less the rest of the list.

    We all hope Yonder Alonso will prove to be the next big thing, but will he?

    Frazier will probably end up being a serviceable MLB player, but IMO he won't be an everyday star. He'll be a nice guy to have in the future, but certainly not the guy you build a lineup around.

    Soto's probably the biggest question mark in our Top 10...

    Stubbs... well... the guy can play D, that's for sure. But, can he hit? Can he stay healthy?

    Valaika is the man without a position. He won't be a SS as a MLB player, so why are they wasting his time and the organization's time playing him as one in the minors? IMO, he'll be a more legit prospect once the Reds figure out where to put him on the diamond.

    After Valaika, huge drop off in talent....

    IMO, the Reds farm has a lot to prove after Cueto, Votto and Bruce making the big team in 2008. There's not much left down on the farm in terms of guys that are "sure things"
    Every organization has questions marks. I don't know why people act like it's just the Reds organization. Baseball America thinks the Reds farm system is average at worst (#15). I certainly trust their opinion over Keith freakin' Law.

    And scouts disagree with you on Frazier. No one expects him to be a Hall of Famer but scouts think he'll develop into a good major league hitter with good power.

    I wish the Reds had more question marks like Soto. The guy has did nothing but hit at every level so far. He's got good contacts skills and his power grades out as a 60/65 on the 20-80 scale. That's plus category.

    The talent drops off after Valaika? Really? Kyle Lotzkar has great stuff and is viewed as a potential #2 big league starter. Juan Duran has been touted as one of the best hitting prospects to ever come out of the Dominican Republic. Yorman Rodriguez has been described as a human tool shed and is tools are compared to those of Eric Davis, Carlos Beltran, and Cesar Cedeno. Yeah those guys are years away but they each have incredible ceilings.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Every organization has questions marks. I don't know why people act like it's just the Reds organization. Baseball America thinks the Reds farm system is average at worst (#15). I certainly trust their opinion over Keith freakin' Law.

    And scouts disagree with you on Frazier. No one expects him to be a Hall of Famer but scouts think he'll develop into a good major league hitter with good power.

    I wish the Reds had more question marks like Soto. The guy has did nothing but hit at every level so far. He's got good contacts skills and his power grades out as a 60/65 on the 20-80 scale. That's plus category.

    The talent drops off after Valaika? Really? Kyle Lotzkar has great stuff and is viewed as a potential #2 big league starter. Juan Duran has been touted as one of the best hitting prospects to ever come out of the Dominican Republic. Yorman Rodriguez has been described as a human tool shed and is tools are compared to those of Eric Davis, Carlos Beltran, and Cesar Cedeno. Yeah those guys are years away but they each have incredible ceilings.
    While I'm not trying to defend Keith Law by any means, I see where he's coming from and the point of his ranking for the Reds.

    Sure, the Reds have some guys with the kind of ceilings we want from prospects, but at this point we don't know their basements, and they certainly are many years away from contributing to the MLB team.

    The Reds just lack guys that are "sure things", which was the point of Law's ranking. He also pointed out that we've wasted 1st round draft picks recently. Hopefully Alonso changes that pattern.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    The Reds haven't wasted any first round picks lately. A wasted first round pick is an overdraft or a punt. The Reds haven't did that. Mesoraco had a disappointing first full season but it's way too early to write him off, IMO.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    The Reds haven't wasted any first round picks lately. A wasted first round pick is an overdraft or a punt. The Reds haven't did that. Mesoraco had a disappointing first full season but it's way too early to write him off, IMO.
    I think it comes down to this regarding the rankings: if you only have one, which is better-impact talent or depth?

    Right now the Reds basically have depth.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I think it comes down to this regarding the rankings: if you only have one, which is better-impact talent or depth?

    Right now the Reds basically have depth.
    Neither Votto nor Cueto were considered "impact" players while in the minors. Bailey was.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Neither Votto nor Cueto were considered "impact" players while in the minors. Bailey was.
    They were half of the "Big Four". They ended up getting quite a bit of attention as minor leaguers. BA ranked both Cueto and Votto as top 50 prospects (34 and 44 respectively going into last season).
    Last edited by jojo; 01-25-2009 at 12:21 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Exactly, lollipop.

    And I would say that Alonso IS an impact talent. Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have projected Alonso as a future .300/.400/.550 type of hitter. That's an MVP caliber hitter. And Drew Stubbs has a chance to develop into an impact player if his power develops. Gold glove caliber defender, good on-base skills ... if he can develop into a Mike Cameron type of player that's an impact player in my book.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-25-2009 at 12:22 PM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Exactly, lollipop.

    And I would say that Alonso IS an impact talent. Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have projected Alonso as a future .300/.400/.550 type of hitter. That's an MVP caliber hitter.
    Alonzo is one player.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Alonzo is one player.
    One or two impact players and great depth behind it. I'll take that any day of the week.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    One or two impact players and great depth behind it. I'll take that any day of the week.
    Nobody is arguing that depth is a bad attribute in a farm system. It's just that depth is kind of like 4 doors on a car. Impact is like having a racing transmission.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Nobody is arguing that depth is a bad attribute in a farm system. It's just that depth is kind of like 4 doors on a car. Impact is like having a racing transmission.
    Yeah, but when you have a racing transmission and racing wheels, but its on a 1988 Dodge Dump truck (like a few of the teams ranked ahead of the Reds) it doesn't really matter because its a complete boom or bust as there is nothing behind the top 2-3 guys.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I understand what Jojo is saying. With Bruce/Cueto/Votto, we had the racing tranny that got put into another car. Now we have four doors. We just need to put both concepts together at the same time.

    I think Alonso could at least be a nice knurled wood knob for the shifter though.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    If the reds have a lot of depth in their minor leagues that will breed one thing. COMPETITION....competition is great way to get guys to push themselves to improve, and it is a good way to weed out guys who might be more tools heavy but who lack pitch recognition or can't locate a fastball. Some systems might have the top guys, but they lack the depth that could prevent the need for an organization to rush a guy to the majors.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I think the question about impact vs. depth is pretty easy -- it's neither. It's simply a matter about how much value your minor league system can add to the major league roster. Maybe that's role players who can allow you to invest in a free agent or keep a stud you developed. Maybe it's a guy or guys who can form your core. Maybe that's guys who can be traded to fill needs.

    For a good GM, minor league talent is largely liquid. It can be used in many ways to generate major league wins. The quality of a minor league system is in its aggregate value. As it stands, the Reds have a minor league system with a good amount of talent, clearly top 20, though probably not top 10. My concern is that the current composition of talent begs for trades. Turn the glut of major league ready or near ready back-of-rotation guys in to a SS. Use some of those young bullpen arms instead of spending $13M on a good, but not elite, closer and millions on mediocre middle relief.

    My fear is that the value in our major league system will go somewhat unrealized by a largely uncreative management team. The talent brought in through drafts will be mediocre, trades that add talent will be rare, and the talent we have will slowly bleed out as guys who don't turn in to studs wither on the vine. The biggest constant over the last decade has been a grossly inefficient use of resources. Whether you rank us 13th or 26th, using our talent efficiently and strategically will be the real determinant of our success.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-25-2009 at 03:12 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    What's easier though.....getting a Teixiera type for for Salty/Andrus/+ or getting an Andrus for a Thompson/Maloney/Dorn?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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