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Thread: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Andrus has been young for each level-he was just 19 last season in AA ball and his performance improved as the season went along. He's going to be a plus defender whether he develops power or not.
    He might be a plus defender who hits .270./.310/.380 though. Sure, it has some value.... but his bat's ceiling is that of a .740 OPS guy and he is pretty far from that at this point. His age has little to do with it because no one projects his bat to get much better than it currently is. Age only matters if there is projection left that is untapped. No one see's that projection with Andrus.

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  3. #92
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Re: Stubbs

    Tim Lincecum
    Max Scherzer
    Ian Kennedy
    Kyle Drabek (possibly)
    Exactly what has Ian Kennedy shown other than his stuff isn't all that good and he has been beaten around in the majors to this point? Kyle Drabek has already had TJ surgery and has a full 100 innings in the minors in 2.5 seasons. So I don't really think either of those guys can be looked at as guys you should have taken over Stubbs.

    Re: Mesoraco

    Rick Porcello (had a signability issue, IIRC?)
    Tim Alderson
    Nick Schmidt
    Andrew Brackman
    Porcello wanted 7+ million and a Major League deal. Sure, he would be great to have.... but his demands were insane and 25 teams passed on him when he was the #1 guy on the board. Andrew Brackman is already a TJ surgery veteran who can't find the strikezone at all, and he never really could even before the surgery. Nick Schmidt, another guy with TJ surgery under his belt and all of 7 innings in the minors pitched at age 23 heading into next season.

    While Mesoraco has a ways to go, I think you are reaching extremely far here with two of those guys.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Yep, and many prospects from other organizations have flamed out too. That's a risk with any prospect, not just Reds prospects.
    I'm not saying anything about the Reds. I am saying that many top DPs have flamed out in the minors. If Alonso destroys the minors this year then he will surely climb the charts. But the guy has barely seen pro pitching...true studs are going to find their way to the top of the rankings without barely playing pro ball. If Law isn't that big a fan of his, then he has him ranked correctly (in his eyes). Now it is Yonder's job to prove him wrong.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Re: Stubbs

    Tim Lincecum
    Max Scherzer
    Ian Kennedy
    Kyle Drabek (possibly)

    Guys we should have and could have taken rather than young Robert Stubbs.
    Can add Travis Snider to this list as well.

    Hindsight is 20/20, but there were a few good ones out there.

    Another one that killed me in 2006 was the Sean Watson over Brett Anderson 2nd round choice. Ugh.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He might be a plus defender who hits .270./.310/.380 though. Sure, it has some value.... but his bat's ceiling is that of a .740 OPS guy and he is pretty far from that at this point. His age has little to do with it because no one projects his bat to get much better than it currently is. Age only matters if there is projection left that is untapped. No one see's that projection with Andrus.
    He doesn't need to hit 20-25 hrs. If he just has a major league average bat given his defense at short, he'll be an incredibly valuable player.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #96
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Can add Travis Snider to this list as well.

    Hindsight is 20/20, but there were a few good ones out there.

    Another one that killed me in 2006 was the Sean Watson over Brett Anderson 2nd round choice. Ugh.
    The Reds couldn't use Travis Snider.... we don't have a DH position in the NL and that kid plays defense like my grandma (who has been dead since 1994) and strikes out like its his job (25% in low A, 33% in A+ although a small sample, 27.4% in AA, 22.9% in AAA in another small sample size and 28.8% in the majors).

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Re: Mesoraco

    Rick Porcello (had a signability issue, IIRC?)
    Tim Alderson
    Nick Schmidt
    Andrew Brackman

    Guys we should have and could have take rather than Devin Mesoraco.


    Sorry if I'm unimpressed by the Reds lack of ability to draft in the 1st Round. I know I'm not in the minority there...
    I liked Alderson but he was viewed as a late first/supplemental round pick. Highsight is 20/20 there. Nick Schmidt? Seriously? The same Nick Schmidt that has thrown a total of seven pro innings in two seasons? Yeah, what a great pick that would've been. Andrew Brackman? He's yet to throw a professional pitch in two seasons except for 2.2 innings in Hawaii. You may be unimpressed with the Reds first round picks, but yours are even worse, IMO. Both of those guys would have been overdrafts ... now factor in that both have combined for roughly 10 pro innings ... both would have been far worse picks than Mesoraco.

    And as I've said before, IMO Lincecum was the better pick, but that doesn't mean Stubbs was a punt. A punt is like what the Reds did in 2001 with Jeremy Sowers. Stubbs was neither a punt nor an overdraft.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-26-2009 at 12:00 AM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  9. #98
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He doesn't need to hit 20-25 hrs. If he just has a major league average bat given his defense at short, he'll be an incredibly valuable player.
    The issue is he doesn't project to hit 10 HR. Some scouts don't project him to hit more than 5 in a full season. Its real tough to be an incredibly valuable player when you are lucky to OPS .725, even at shortstop.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The issue is he doesn't project to hit 10 HR. Some scouts don't project him to hit more than 5 in a full season. Its real tough to be an incredibly valuable player when you are lucky to OPS .725, even at shortstop.
    I'm kind of a fan of the scouts that Texas employs.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm kind of a fan of the scouts that Texas employs.
    Me too. I haven't heard anything from anyone who talks to their scouts that suggests he will even hit 10 HR in the majors.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Me too. I haven't heard anything from anyone who talks to their scouts that suggests he will even hit 10 HR in the majors.
    He doesn't have to hit 10 homers. A better fielding Escobar with a couple less homers is very valuable. A better fielding Renteria is a valuable thing.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #102
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He doesn't have to hit 10 homers. A better fielding Escobar with a couple less homers is very valuable. A better fielding Renteria is a valuable thing.
    Sure, but he won't be Renteria unless he cuts down on his strikeouts by about 30-40% of his current rate. Its not something I would count on him doing, but I guess it is possible. His skills right now suggest he is a .260 hitter in the majors with no power to speak of. That will lead to walks drying up and a low OBP to go with a low SLG. He needs to cut his strikeout rate from the current 17% he is at to about 10-12% in order to be a guy like Renteria. Thats a pretty big jump.

  14. #103
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Renteria is a great comp; they advanced at exactly the same ages. Glancing over the numbers, Andrus has easily outhit Renteria thus far and is regarded as an even better defender. That's a top prospect if you ask me, Doug...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure, but he won't be Renteria unless he cuts down on his strikeouts by about 30-40% of his current rate. Its not something I would count on him doing, but I guess it is possible. His skills right now suggest he is a .260 hitter in the majors with no power to speak of. That will lead to walks drying up and a low OBP to go with a low SLG. He needs to cut his strikeout rate from the current 17% he is at to about 10-12% in order to be a guy like Renteria. Thats a pretty big jump.
    He can't even legally buy a beer yet.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #105
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He can't even legally buy a beer yet.
    Which is fine, but is he going to strike out a third of the time less in 3 years than he is now?

    Baseclogger, yeah he has. But is he going to take the same step forward with making a lot more contact in the majors like Renteria did? If he doesn't, and I am not counting on it, then he isn't in the same realm as Renteria.


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