He might be a plus defender who hits .270./.310/.380 though. Sure, it has some value.... but his bat's ceiling is that of a .740 OPS guy and he is pretty far from that at this point. His age has little to do with it because no one projects his bat to get much better than it currently is. Age only matters if there is projection left that is untapped. No one see's that projection with Andrus.Originally Posted by jojo
Exactly what has Ian Kennedy shown other than his stuff isn't all that good and he has been beaten around in the majors to this point? Kyle Drabek has already had TJ surgery and has a full 100 innings in the minors in 2.5 seasons. So I don't really think either of those guys can be looked at as guys you should have taken over Stubbs.
Porcello wanted 7+ million and a Major League deal. Sure, he would be great to have.... but his demands were insane and 25 teams passed on him when he was the #1 guy on the board. Andrew Brackman is already a TJ surgery veteran who can't find the strikezone at all, and he never really could even before the surgery. Nick Schmidt, another guy with TJ surgery under his belt and all of 7 innings in the minors pitched at age 23 heading into next season.Re: Mesoraco
Rick Porcello (had a signability issue, IIRC?)
Tim Alderson
Nick Schmidt
Andrew Brackman
While Mesoraco has a ways to go, I think you are reaching extremely far here with two of those guys.
I'm not saying anything about the Reds. I am saying that many top DPs have flamed out in the minors. If Alonso destroys the minors this year then he will surely climb the charts. But the guy has barely seen pro pitching...true studs are going to find their way to the top of the rankings without barely playing pro ball. If Law isn't that big a fan of his, then he has him ranked correctly (in his eyes). Now it is Yonder's job to prove him wrong.
Can add Travis Snider to this list as well.
Hindsight is 20/20, but there were a few good ones out there.
Another one that killed me in 2006 was the Sean Watson over Brett Anderson 2nd round choice. Ugh.
He doesn't need to hit 20-25 hrs. If he just has a major league average bat given his defense at short, he'll be an incredibly valuable player.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The Reds couldn't use Travis Snider.... we don't have a DH position in the NL and that kid plays defense like my grandma (who has been dead since 1994) and strikes out like its his job (25% in low A, 33% in A+ although a small sample, 27.4% in AA, 22.9% in AAA in another small sample size and 28.8% in the majors).
I liked Alderson but he was viewed as a late first/supplemental round pick. Highsight is 20/20 there. Nick Schmidt? Seriously? The same Nick Schmidt that has thrown a total of seven pro innings in two seasons? Yeah, what a great pick that would've been. Andrew Brackman? He's yet to throw a professional pitch in two seasons except for 2.2 innings in Hawaii. You may be unimpressed with the Reds first round picks, but yours are even worse, IMO. Both of those guys would have been overdrafts ... now factor in that both have combined for roughly 10 pro innings ... both would have been far worse picks than Mesoraco.
And as I've said before, IMO Lincecum was the better pick, but that doesn't mean Stubbs was a punt. A punt is like what the Reds did in 2001 with Jeremy Sowers. Stubbs was neither a punt nor an overdraft.
Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-25-2009 at 11:00 PM.
The issue is he doesn't project to hit 10 HR. Some scouts don't project him to hit more than 5 in a full season. Its real tough to be an incredibly valuable player when you are lucky to OPS .725, even at shortstop.
I'm kind of a fan of the scouts that Texas employs.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Me too. I haven't heard anything from anyone who talks to their scouts that suggests he will even hit 10 HR in the majors.I'm kind of a fan of the scouts that Texas employs.
He doesn't have to hit 10 homers. A better fielding Escobar with a couple less homers is very valuable. A better fielding Renteria is a valuable thing.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Sure, but he won't be Renteria unless he cuts down on his strikeouts by about 30-40% of his current rate. Its not something I would count on him doing, but I guess it is possible. His skills right now suggest he is a .260 hitter in the majors with no power to speak of. That will lead to walks drying up and a low OBP to go with a low SLG. He needs to cut his strikeout rate from the current 17% he is at to about 10-12% in order to be a guy like Renteria. Thats a pretty big jump.
Renteria is a great comp; they advanced at exactly the same ages. Glancing over the numbers, Andrus has easily outhit Renteria thus far and is regarded as an even better defender. That's a top prospect if you ask me, Doug...
He can't even legally buy a beer yet.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Which is fine, but is he going to strike out a third of the time less in 3 years than he is now?
Baseclogger, yeah he has. But is he going to take the same step forward with making a lot more contact in the majors like Renteria did? If he doesn't, and I am not counting on it, then he isn't in the same realm as Renteria.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote