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Thread: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Which is fine, but is he going to strike out a third of the time less in 3 years than he is now?

    Baseclogger, yeah he has. But is he going to take the same step forward with making a lot more contact in the majors like Renteria did? If he doesn't, and I am not counting on it, then he isn't in the same realm as Renteria.
    He already strikes out less than Stubbs.
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Doug, what I am missing with Andrus? 91 SO in 500+ PA isn't great, but it's hardly a bad sign as a 19 year old in AA. Is this the Stubbs argument about contact rates stabilizing in the upper minors based on the presence (or absence) of power? At the major league level, .700 OPS with a plus glove a glove at SS and the ability to add 5-10 runs on the bases makes him above average. I guess I see his upside as Rafael Furcal with a bit less power.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-26-2009 at 12:27 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Baseclogger, yeah he has. But is he going to take the same step forward with making a lot more contact in the majors like Renteria did? If he doesn't, and I am not counting on it, then he isn't in the same realm as Renteria.
    But he doesn't have to make nearly as much of a jump as Renteria did because he's already starting with 17 points of BA, 18 points of isoD, and 25 points of isoP. Plus, he's Omar Vizquel with the glove. In fact, there's another comp...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    A few years down the road, would you rather have Elvis Andrus (Braves) or Alcides Escobar (Brewers)? Is there any other shortstop that you would put in their class? Would Jose Reyes be a valid comparison for either of them?

    Zach Ellenthal
    Wilton, Conn.


    I'd rather have Escobar, though there's not a big difference between the two. They're similar offensive players, with Escobar having more power and Andrus being a better basestealer. They're both very good defenders, with Escobar maybe rating a slight edge. Andrus is nearly two years younger than Escobar and they've both made it to Double-A at this point, so Andrus may have more room for improvement. Then again, Escobar is still very young at 22.

    When I put together my personal Top 50 Prospects list for the 2009 Prospect Handbook, I listed two shortstops ahead of Escobar (No. 27) and Andrus (who didn't make my cut, and in retrospect I may regret that decision). I put the Rays' Tim Beckham at No. 11 and the White Sox' Gordon Beckham at No. 23. Tim Beckham is a shortstop in the traditional mold like Escobar and Andrus, and I think he'll be more of an offensive threat than they will, especially in the power department. Gordon Beckham has more pop than any of them, though he's more of an average defender than a plus with the glove.

    I wouldn't compare Andrus or Escobar to Reyes, who debuted in the majors the day before he turned 20. He has more dynamic speed and significantly more strength. If Andrus and Escobar continue to develop, you could dream that they could become the second coming of Reyes, but that's not too realistic.

    Does the Dodgers' Ivan DeJesus Jr. profile better as a shortstop or second baseman at the major league level? What could prevent him from being an everyday shortstop: his glove, arm or instincts? Also, do you see him as a potential leadoff man, if he keeps improving his hitting and plate discipline?

    Dustin Nosler
    Elk Grove, Calif.


    I'll take Shortstops for $200, Alex . . . DeJesus profiles better as a shortstop, though Rafael Furcal has a firm hold on that job after re-signing with the Dodgers for three years and a $30 million. With Blake DeWitt, Mark Loretta and Tony Abreu available at second base, DeJesus probably faces a full season in Triple-A.

    He profiles better at shortstop because he's solid enough to handle the defensive responsibilities, making him more valuable there. While he's coming off his best offensive season, having hit .324/.419/.423 and led the Double-A Southern League in on-base percentage, I'm not sure he'd give a team the extra offense it would want in a second baseman. He has a chance to hit at the top of the lineup if he continues to show that kind of bat and offensive ability, but he's not going to hit for much power or steal many bases.
    I put this recent article in for fun, because I'd get after player #3 DeJesus.

    I personally don't buy the Andrus hype as Vizquel-esque even though you hear it plenty. Reason being his arm isn't special and is considered questionable (strength wise) at least by one scout asked on the subject. Yeah he has great hands and range but he's a 2nd bagger if his arm isn't good enough. Of course he is still young yet so his arm has time to get stronger, which is why people "project" him to be a special defender. But his bat and more specifically his plate discipline is not good as of yet. I think he makes the major regardless but will he be a rich mans Rey Ordonez (great glove/poor bat but with wheels)? If so then the hype isn't warranted.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I personally don't buy the Andrus hype as Vizquel-esque even though you hear it plenty. Reason being his arm isn't special and is considered questionable (strength wise) at least by one scout asked on the subject. Yeah he has great hands and range but he's a 2nd bagger if his arm isn't good enough. Of course he is still young yet so his arm has time to get stronger, which is why people "project" him to be a special defender. But his bat and more specifically his plate discipline is not good as of yet. I think he makes the major regardless but will he be a rich mans Rey Ordonez (great glove/poor bat but with wheels)? If so then the hype isn't warranted.
    -Omar Vizquel never had a really strong arm.

    -I think you underestimate how bad of a hitter Rey Ordonez was.

    -Andrus had a .055 isoD in AA last year as a 19 year old and for his career his isoD is .068. That's pretty darn good for a glove-first shortstop...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Doug, what I am missing with Andrus? 91 SO in 500+ PA isn't great, but it's hardly a bad sign as a 19 year old in AA. Is this the Stubbs argument about contact rates stabilizing in the upper minors based on the presence (or absence) of power? At the major league level, .700 OPS with a plus glove a glove at SS and the ability to add 5-10 runs on the bases makes him above average. I guess I see his upside as Rafael Furcal with a bit less power.
    Its not a bad sign at all. Its just that he comes with zero current power and zero power projection by everyone I have talked to on the matter. In order for his OBP and SLG to be even close to average for the position given he has no power, he has to start putting the ball in play more than he is now, by quite a bit because his BABIP can only carry him so far when he hits 5 HR over 550 AB's but is striking out 16% of his PA (over 600 PA thats 96 K's). Basically, right now he projects to be Willy Taveras, but at SS.

    Kevin Goldstein sums up how I feel pretty nicely about Andrus:

    Q: Elvis Andrus: Great shortstop prospect or greatest shortstop prospect?

    - Trip Somers

    Goldstein: Neither. None of the above. I pick C. I'm a guy who just isn't an Andrus believer, and there's a reason for that. Offensively, he's a guy without secondary skills. He doesn't work the count very well and he doesn't have any power. He's a very good defensive shortstop, but he's not a crazy great defensive shortstop; he's not a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, he's a really good shortstop. I feel the guy is going to hit .280 or .290 and steal some bases, but at the same time he's going to draw 30 walks and hit four home runs for you. He's an everyday shortstop that is going to hit seventh for you. That's not an All-Star, that's a regular shortstop. I mean, what has he really done? He's not just going to find it. It's not there to find.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 01-26-2009 at 02:55 AM.

  8. #112
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    But he doesn't have to make nearly as much of a jump as Renteria did because he's already starting with 17 points of BA, 18 points of isoD, and 25 points of isoP. Plus, he's Omar Vizquel with the glove. In fact, there's another comp...
    He isn't Omar with the glove. Not sure where that comp comes from, but its wrong from everything I have ever read about Andrus.

    And he does have to make a pretty big jump. Right now he is projecting to he a guy who strikes out around 16% of the time, walking about 6-7% of the time and hitting for no power. Here is what his line looks like with that walk rate, that K rate and a .320 BABIP with 5 HR.
    Code:
    PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600	555	150	30	5	5	35	96	5	4	1	.270	.319	.369	.319
    He needs to really cut down his K rate to something in the 12% range which would give him these numbers if he kept similar power
    Code:
    PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600	555	158	32	5	5	35	72	5	4	1	.285	.332	.387	.320

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Exactly what has Ian Kennedy shown other than his stuff isn't all that good and he has been beaten around in the majors to this point? Kyle Drabek has already had TJ surgery and has a full 100 innings in the minors in 2.5 seasons. So I don't really think either of those guys can be looked at as guys you should have taken over Stubbs.



    Porcello wanted 7+ million and a Major League deal. Sure, he would be great to have.... but his demands were insane and 25 teams passed on him when he was the #1 guy on the board. Andrew Brackman is already a TJ surgery veteran who can't find the strikezone at all, and he never really could even before the surgery. Nick Schmidt, another guy with TJ surgery under his belt and all of 7 innings in the minors pitched at age 23 heading into next season.

    While Mesoraco has a ways to go, I think you are reaching extremely far here with two of those guys.
    Ok, so the guys I listed have had surgery. That would definitely make them fit right in with other Reds 1st Round Draft picks (Gruler & Howington). There was buzz around the guys I listed, and what's the difference between the guys I listed and Stubbs or Mesoraco? They all have a common theme: none of them may ever make their respective MLB club, and if they do it may only be for a big cup of coffee.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I liked Alderson but he was viewed as a late first/supplemental round pick. Highsight is 20/20 there. Nick Schmidt? Seriously? The same Nick Schmidt that has thrown a total of seven pro innings in two seasons? Yeah, what a great pick that would've been. Andrew Brackman? He's yet to throw a professional pitch in two seasons except for 2.2 innings in Hawaii. You may be unimpressed with the Reds first round picks, but yours are even worse, IMO. Both of those guys would have been overdrafts ... now factor in that both have combined for roughly 10 pro innings ... both would have been far worse picks than Mesoraco.

    And as I've said before, IMO Lincecum was the better pick, but that doesn't mean Stubbs was a punt. A punt is like what the Reds did in 2001 with Jeremy Sowers. Stubbs was neither a punt nor an overdraft.
    Since when is having too much pitching a bad thing? Granted, the guys I listed all met the knife, but then we would have just filed them in the Gruler or Howington folder in the file cabinet. If the best player(s) on the board at the time are pitchers, I don't see how it's bad to draft a pitcher, rather than attempting to draft for a need.

    Sure, the guys I listed haven't worked out, but there was buzz about them in their respective years.

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He isn't Omar with the glove. Not sure where that comp comes from, but its wrong from everything I have ever read about Andrus.

    And he does have to make a pretty big jump. Right now he is projecting to he a guy who strikes out around 16% of the time, walking about 6-7% of the time and hitting for no power. Here is what his line looks like with that walk rate, that K rate and a .320 BABIP with 5 HR.
    Code:
    PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600	555	150	30	5	5	35	96	5	4	1	.270	.319	.369	.319
    He needs to really cut down his K rate to something in the 12% range which would give him these numbers if he kept similar power
    Code:
    PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600	555	158	32	5	5	35	72	5	4	1	.285	.332	.387	.320
    "Right now" isn't a great way to judge a 19 year old prospect. You don't think he can improve, I and others think he can. I think that's where we aren't going to agree...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Alright, sorry guys, I have to steer somewhere different but I don't feel it is worthy of it's own thread so sorry for hi-jacking, an answer would be awesome though....

    Would you rather have Clay Bucholz or Phillip Hughes for fantasy baseball this upcoming season?
    For Love of the Game

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by penantboundreds View Post
    Alright, sorry guys, I have to steer somewhere different but I don't feel it is worthy of it's own thread so sorry for hi-jacking, an answer would be awesome though....

    Would you rather have Clay Bucholz or Phillip Hughes for fantasy baseball this upcoming season?
    There's actually a fantasy baseball forum here, and that's totally worth a new thread. You could even make a poll if you wanted.
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=16

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    "Right now" isn't a great way to judge a 19 year old prospect. You don't think he can improve, I and others think he can. I think that's where we aren't going to agree...
    Well what makes you think he can and will improve? The scouts don't really see it. What do you see that makes you think he will?

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well what makes you think he can and will improve? The scouts don't really see it. What do you see that makes you think he will?
    I'm not saying he's going to have plus power, but think as he develops he can improve his contact and have the ability to leg out some doubles and triples with his speed...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I'm not saying he's going to have plus power, but think as he develops he can improve his contact and have the ability to leg out some doubles and triples with his speed...
    doesn't seem to work for Taveras


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