"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
The problem with Patterson is that he started listening to Dusty Baker. I don't mean to hijack the thread, but look at how much better CPat was doing when he struck out all the time. Dusty got it in Patterson's head that he has to put the ball in play.
I've been skimming. Would it be accurate to say that we can all agree that Andrus is overrated as a prospect, but the disagreement is in dougdirt's assessment of how overrated Andrus actually is.
I just don't think his defense is good enough to overcome a .740 OPS to become more than average at shortstop.
The Reds should only be so lucky as to have an overrated 20-year-old SS heading into AAA.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
Milb.com had him ranked 21st in the minors.
I just can't buy into the fact that there are only 20 better prospects in baseball better than him. He is young, fast and plays above average defense. His bat projects to be a .700 OPS type of bat though. His defense isn't gold glove ability, much less Ozzie or Omar ability, so his bat just isn't going to justify him being a top 25 type guy for me.... or even a top 50 guy right now. He is a top 100 type of guy though because I think he is a safe bet to be a major leaguer and maybe even an average one. The upside just isn't there for me though to rank him that high.
Now, you used similar logic (IIRC) when speaking about Stubbs' 2nd half bump after he started choking up noting his 2nd half numbers. So why would you project him at a .700 OPS when it appears as if he has shown improvement and could easily continue on that upward trajectory?Statistically speaking: The biggest sign that Andrus is adjusting is how he improved at the plate over the course of the season. He hit .260 with a .612 OPS in April. That improved to .278 and .666 in May. He took off in June (.309/.782) and particularly in July (.330/.804). A teenager raises his batting average 36 points and his OPS 95 points from first half to second is always going to raise some eyebrows.
Andrus on the other hand just doesn't really have much offensive projection in his bat (or so the scouts tell me). He doesn't have power now and doesn't project to have it ever. And I don't mean 20 HR power, I mean 10 HR power.
Look at his month to month splits last year.
He carried a .357 BABIP for the season and posted a .717 OPS. He is Willy Taveras at the plate right now. The problem is, he doesn't project to be much better than Taveras offensively either. He doesn't control the zone well, he won't hit HR's and he strikes out at about the same rate. His growth as a hitter just isn't there. He needs to cut down his strikeout rate to around where he was in August to be a consistent .700 OPS type of hitter. I am not sure he can do it.Code:Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA April 106 100 .050 0 3.8% 17.9% .321 73% 14% .260 .302 .310 .278 May 100 90 .044 0 8.0% 22.0% .368 67% 17% .278 .340 .322 .304 June 79 68 .088 1 8.9% 15.2% .364 44% 23% .309 .380 .397 .348 July 110 97 .093 2 8.2% 18.2% .400 49% 19% .330 .382 .423 .356 August 134 122 .090 1 7.5% 11.9% .343 51% 22% .303 .351 .393 .330
After looking at Andrus' numbers, one thing I do like is that he got better as the season went, but all at AA. Opposing staffs got multiple looks at him and he adjusted. I don't think that should be discounted. Ideally, you'd like to see about 20 more BB's, but he did well for a guy his age at that level.
That said, the kid is being rushed a bit. I'd certainly slow up a bit and have him repeat AA.
Suck it up cupcake.