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Thread: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

  1. #121
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well what makes you think he can and will improve? The scouts don't really see it. What do you see that makes you think he will?
    What might happen to his contact rate if he repeated AA as a 20 yo?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #122
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    doesn't seem to work for Taveras
    Or Patterson or Pie or......{insert name here}. Yes they all look great once upon a time but sometimes they just don't acquire the skill to go along with their talent. Andrus looks like he has a better chance of figuring it out but it's too soon to be sure. Corey Patterson for example is a guy who actually if he just did one thing differently could turn it all around, quit swinging at pitches that not much good can hardly ever come from and get a little better in the bat control dept. But if he just did that 1st thing he'd be an All Star. Andrus currently does this same thing, and if he hits well in s/t he is gonna be a major leaguer this year sometime. Too freaking soon if you ask me.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  4. #123
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What might happen to his contact rate if he repeated AA as a 20 yo?
    Who knows? Time will tell, but the point still remains he either needs significantly more power than he has now and no one thinks he will get it, or he must improve his contact rate dramatically in order to post season OPS's over .700.

  5. #124
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    The problem with Patterson is that he started listening to Dusty Baker. I don't mean to hijack the thread, but look at how much better CPat was doing when he struck out all the time. Dusty got it in Patterson's head that he has to put the ball in play.

  6. #125
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Time will tell, but the point still remains he either needs significantly more power than he has now and no one thinks he will get it, or he must improve his contact rate dramatically in order to post season OPS's over .700.
    I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #126
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I've been skimming. Would it be accurate to say that we can all agree that Andrus is overrated as a prospect, but the disagreement is in dougdirt's assessment of how overrated Andrus actually is.

  8. #127
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I've been skimming. Would it be accurate to say that we can all agree that Andrus is overrated as a prospect, but the disagreement is in dougdirt's assessment of how overrated Andrus actually is.
    My opinion-Andrus isn't the next AROD but he has a legitimate chance to be an above average major league shortstop. That can be pretty valuable and makes him a legitimate prospect.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #128
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    I just don't think his defense is good enough to overcome a .740 OPS to become more than average at shortstop.

  10. #129
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    The Reds should only be so lucky as to have an overrated 20-year-old SS heading into AAA.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #130
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The Reds should only be so lucky as to have an overrated 20-year-old SS heading into AAA.
    No one is suggesting he wouldn't be something good to have, but he is currently overrated by a whole lot of people

    Milb.com had him ranked 21st in the minors.

    I just can't buy into the fact that there are only 20 better prospects in baseball better than him. He is young, fast and plays above average defense. His bat projects to be a .700 OPS type of bat though. His defense isn't gold glove ability, much less Ozzie or Omar ability, so his bat just isn't going to justify him being a top 25 type guy for me.... or even a top 50 guy right now. He is a top 100 type of guy though because I think he is a safe bet to be a major leaguer and maybe even an average one. The upside just isn't there for me though to rank him that high.

  12. #131
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No one is suggesting he wouldn't be something good to have, but he is currently overrated by a whole lot of people

    Milb.com had him ranked 21st in the minors.

    I just can't buy into the fact that there are only 20 better prospects in baseball better than him. He is young, fast and plays above average defense. His bat projects to be a .700 OPS type of bat though. His defense isn't gold glove ability, much less Ozzie or Omar ability, so his bat just isn't going to justify him being a top 25 type guy for me.... or even a top 50 guy right now. He is a top 100 type of guy though because I think he is a safe bet to be a major leaguer and maybe even an average one. The upside just isn't there for me though to rank him that high.
    Doug, I took this excerpt from the milb.com ranking profile on Andrus:

    Statistically speaking: The biggest sign that Andrus is adjusting is how he improved at the plate over the course of the season. He hit .260 with a .612 OPS in April. That improved to .278 and .666 in May. He took off in June (.309/.782) and particularly in July (.330/.804). A teenager raises his batting average 36 points and his OPS 95 points from first half to second is always going to raise some eyebrows.
    Now, you used similar logic (IIRC) when speaking about Stubbs' 2nd half bump after he started choking up noting his 2nd half numbers. So why would you project him at a .700 OPS when it appears as if he has shown improvement and could easily continue on that upward trajectory?

  13. #132
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Now, you used similar logic (IIRC) when speaking about Stubbs' 2nd half bump after he started choking up noting his 2nd half numbers. So why would you project him at a .700 OPS when it appears as if he has shown improvement and could easily continue on that upward trajectory?
    Stubbs walks more than Andrus and still has plenty of projectability in his bat, while playing better defense at his position.

    Andrus on the other hand just doesn't really have much offensive projection in his bat (or so the scouts tell me). He doesn't have power now and doesn't project to have it ever. And I don't mean 20 HR power, I mean 10 HR power.

    Look at his month to month splits last year.
    Code:
    Split	PA	AB	ISOP	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
    April	106	100	.050	0	3.8%	17.9%	.321	73%	14%	.260	.302	.310	.278
    May	100	90	.044	0	8.0%	22.0%	.368	67%	17%	.278	.340	.322	.304
    June	79	68	.088	1	8.9%	15.2%	.364	44%	23%	.309	.380	.397	.348
    July	110	97	.093	2	8.2%	18.2%	.400	49%	19%	.330	.382	.423	.356
    August	134	122	.090	1	7.5%	11.9%	.343	51%	22%	.303	.351	.393	.330
    He carried a .357 BABIP for the season and posted a .717 OPS. He is Willy Taveras at the plate right now. The problem is, he doesn't project to be much better than Taveras offensively either. He doesn't control the zone well, he won't hit HR's and he strikes out at about the same rate. His growth as a hitter just isn't there. He needs to cut down his strikeout rate to around where he was in August to be a consistent .700 OPS type of hitter. I am not sure he can do it.

  14. #133
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    After looking at Andrus' numbers, one thing I do like is that he got better as the season went, but all at AA. Opposing staffs got multiple looks at him and he adjusted. I don't think that should be discounted. Ideally, you'd like to see about 20 more BB's, but he did well for a guy his age at that level.

    That said, the kid is being rushed a bit. I'd certainly slow up a bit and have him repeat AA.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #134
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law (Organizational Rankings) Reds ranked 26th

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    That said, the kid is being rushed a bit. I'd certainly slow up a bit and have him repeat AA.
    I think that would be a good idea too, but it sounds like Texas is really looking at continuing to rush him. The talk is to give him a look in ST and if he looks even half way decent he is going to be there on Opening Day.


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