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Thread: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

  1. #46
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Maybe it's just me but I thought it was kinda interesting how their top 10 breaks down. The first four are the older prospects that should be up within a year or a year & and a half.

    Yonder Alonso - 21

    Todd Frazier - 22 (turns 23 on 2/12)

    Drew Stubbs - 24

    Chris Valaika - 23


    While the remaining six are the (younger) players that have eta's that are farther off.

    Yorman Rodriguez - 16

    Kyle Lotzkar - 19

    Neftali Soto - 19 (turns 20 on 2/28)

    Juan Francisco - 21

    Juan Duran - 17

    Devin Mesoraco - 20

    Seems like at least a few of them (Yorman, Duran, Mesoraco) could be on this list for awhile.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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  3. #47
    The Future GoReds33's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Before the crash, I remember a lot of people criticizing the list for having Soto at number seven. I think people don't realize how easily he could turn out to be the next Tony Blanco. Don't get me wrong, though--I think Soto's a great prospect--I'm just empathizing with the naysayers.
    Sorry I didn't see this earlier, however I think that is a great statement. Soto has a great upside, but his downside can be just as steep.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  4. #48
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    By the way, since the eta on Yorman, Duran, and Mesoraco is so far away how long do we control their rights? (I'm pretty sure it's different for Yorman and Duran)
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  5. #49
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    By the way, since the eta on Yorman, Duran, and Mesoraco is so far away how long do we control their rights? (I'm pretty sure it's different for Yorman and Duran)
    Pretty sure its the same as it is for high school guys. Yorman and Duran will have to be put on the 40 man roster to be protected in Juan Francisco and Phil Valiquette were both signed in 2004. One from the draft and one as an Intl FA and both were needing protected this offseason.

  6. #50
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Pretty sure its the same as it is for high school guys. Yorman and Duran will have to be put on the 40 man roster to be protected in Juan Francisco and Phil Valiquette were both signed in 2004. One from the draft and one as an Intl FA and both were needing protected this offseason.
    2012?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  7. #51
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Ok I thought it was different for players signed before they turned 18.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  8. #52
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    Ok I thought it was different for players signed before they turned 18.
    You're on the right track. If a player signs before his 19th birthday, he is essentially awarded an 'extra' year before he must be protected on the 40-man roster before being exposed to the rule five draft.

  9. #53
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Ok that must have been what it was. Thanks guys.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  10. #54
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    For some reason, Baseball America has not rated Soto quite as highly as I would expect, either in their Midwest League top 20 or the Reds top 10. Not sure why. When you watch him play and take his age into consideration, it is hard not to be tremendously impressed. He has one weakness in my opinion and that is the fact that he has below average speed. That being said, they are talking about him moving to left field, which I can't see for that very reason. He would have very limited range out there. You would not build a quality team with a left fielder with such poor range. Of course, the talk of him moving to the outfield is based on the lack of opportunity that may exist at third base, but I am not sure that Soto won't be the best of all the third base candidates.

    If you watched Soto and Lotzkar with the Dayton team last season on a daily basis, I don't think anyone would have ever said that Lotzkar was the better prospect of the two. It does take pitchers longer, but Soto is so much farther along in terms of development at nearly the same age. I like Lotzkar, but you are talking about a guy who struggled to get his ERA under 5.00 while Soto was a guy who was hitting in the .320 range with extra base power. If you told the average Dragons season ticket holder from 2008, (a good fan but someone from the general population without a scouting background) that Lotzkar was a better prospect than Soto, they would tell you that you needed to be drug-tested. There is something to be said for the eyeball test.

    I don't see the Blanco comparison. Soto has the bat speed to turn around a 95 mph fastball. He is not going to lose that. He is going to add strength and develop more home run power. He is a good kid who will work to get better. I remember a story from last season from Donnie Scott, talking about how impressed he was one day with Soto when he took a bad hop off the face during BP and was bleeding badly, went back to the trainer's room to get cleaned up, and was right back out there taking more grounders. That is something you don't see in a scouting report, but I will put my money on those kind of guys.

  11. #55
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Great post, redsof72. I threw the Blanco comparison out there because Tony Blanco has a similar skill set and destroyed rookie ball as an 18-year-old. Like I said, I don't think he'll go the Blanco route, but it certainly wouldn't shock me. We often see guys who swing at a lot of pitches end up having a lot of trouble with breaking balls as they face more advanced pitching.

  12. #56
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Of course Blanco destroyed the GCL, while having a worse contact rate than Soto did while beating up on pitchers in Low A. There is a world of difference between the two levels.

  13. #57
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Excellent post, Redsof72. I've said it before, I love reading the great insight you provide. Keep up the good work man.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  14. #58
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    If you watched Soto and Lotzkar with the Dayton team last season on a daily basis, I don't think anyone would have ever said that Lotzkar was the better prospect of the two. It does take pitchers longer, but Soto is so much farther along in terms of development at nearly the same age. I like Lotzkar, but you are talking about a guy who struggled to get his ERA under 5.00 while Soto was a guy who was hitting in the .320 range with extra base power.
    I agree with you that Soto is a better prospect than Lotzkar right now, but Lotzkar's ERA was 3.58. If Lotzkar wasn't injured he would have been at the top of the Reds prospect list.

  15. #59
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    Its interesting.... Lotzkar has the ceiling of a #1 starter. Soto has the ceiling of a guy who can hit .300 year in and year out while hitting 30 HR's. Soto has proven more to this point, but I can certainly see where Lotzkar could be viewed as a better prospect if you view it as upside 80% and performance at 20%.

  16. #60
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects

    I think both Lotzkar and Soto are excellent prospects. It's hard for me to compare the two since one is a hitter and the other is a pitcher. Both have the potential to be studs at their respective positions, but I rank Soto ahead of Lotzkar because I believe Soto will reach the majors sooner. JMO. I'm just glad to have both of them in the system.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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