You're right, we need to do better than to just replace Dunn's production to get closer to the playoffs.Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
However, a platoon of Gomes/Dickerson won't even replace Dunn's production, so we're actually farther from the playoffs.
Whoops.
I'm resigned to Taveras starting the season in CF. I'm hoping that Dickerson plays well in LF and Dorn plays well enough that he forces his way onto the big roster.
I wouldn't mind seeing Dorn/Gomes splitting time in LF and Dickerson/Stubbs doing likewise in CF by the trade dealdine. Probably won't happen though.
Sure, who needs Hairston's .326 when you can have Gomes' .182 with worse defense? Reds can easily spare that .144 points of batting average, who needs it.
Well, it doesn't matter, Hairston will get his at bats, but it's a little premature to trash the guy. He may have been the best player on the team much of last year.
Yes, yes, I've read the predictions of Hairston's demise as a player next year. We'll see. I'm kind of glad he'll be around, as unfashionable that viewpoint may be around here.
Last edited by Kc61; 01-22-2009 at 09:18 PM.
Hairston's going to get a bunch of time at SS. No way Gonzalez's knee will stand up to a full year of punishment.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
You really think Hairston will 1, be healthy to play more than 80 games (which he did last year for the 1st time since 2005....), and 2, hit for an AVG over .300 for more than 260 AB (which he's only done twice in his entire career) ?
Fans should be very afraid of their Cincinnati Reds if Hairston is talked about as being a guy we need big things from in 2009....
Over the beginning of last season, Votto has improved, Bruce has taken over for Junior, Dickerson is taking over for Dunn, Gonzo is taking over for Kepp at short, and Hanigan/Hernandez is an improvement over Bako/Ross/Javy too. I'd call that multiple positions.
Again, you're looking at it from the perspective of one position to one position. While Gomes/Dickerson alone won't replace Dunn's stats, they will replace SOME of them. The improvement of our other players will replace some more. So no...we're NOT farther from the playoffs. We're more balanced and therefore CLOSER to the playoffs. Sometimes people tend to get so focused on one player or one position or one aspect of the game that they forget that this is a team game and the sum of the parts doesn't equal the whole.
LF improve
CF worse
RF improve
3B who knows?
SS status quo at best, most likely worse
2B maintain
1B I'd hope Votto gets better, but has he really improved?
C Hernandez isn't an improvement, and since he'll get the majority of PT, he negates the improvement Hanigan might be...
... k, ya got me... LF and RF got better while others got worse...
I have no idea how healthy Hairston will be, neither does anyone else. But on this team, as it currently stands, I'm hopeful Hairston gets a lot of at bats because he showed me last year a performance level that can't reasonably be expected from many of these guys.
It's fashionable to trash Hairston around here, but he finally put it together last year by being more selective at the plate. I don't see why he necessarily has to revert to earlier bad years.
I'm looking at it from both a macro and micro approach.
Micro approach, we won't replace Dunn's overall production in LF, so that's a net loss.
Can we really get anything as awful as we did from the C position last year? Net gain.
Offensively we should improve in CF, but we've declined defensively, so call it a push leaning to net loss, b/c Willy Taveras is that... well, we know all about Willy Taveras...
I honestly expect Phillips to continue to decline, given the fact he'll try to make himself "the man", press to much and become a bigger hacker than he already is. Net loss.
I don't see Votto OPSing on the good side of .900, which is what he'd have to do to improve from last year, so we'll call him a status quo.
I see EE improving, net gain.
I hope Bruce improves, so optimistic net gain.
... and who the Hell knows what we'll get from the SS position. Gonzo? Kepp? Hairston? I'd hope they'd improve, b/c they certainly can't play any worse defensively, can they, and I shudder to think if they put up similar craptastic numbers offensively as 2008 as a group. So, optimistic net gain I guess?
Macro approach....
LF = big net loss
CF = net loss
RF = small net gain
3B = net gain
SS = net gain
2B = small net loss
1B = push
C = net gain
Add up all the + and -, and offensively we're worse and defensively we're worse.
So... it's not all about Dunn and replacing his production. It's about this roster being a collective assembly of suck, offensively and defensively. If they score more than 725 I'll be surprised, and if they give up less than 800 I'll be surprised.
How did shortsop get (most likely) worse?
Unfortunately (or luckily depending on how you look at it), last year's stats don't count in 2009. It's about what the guy does in 2009, and Gomes is much more likely to be productive than Hairston in the way it appears he's going to be used.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
SS most likely worse? How so? Has anyone seen a negative Gonzo injury update? From everything that I've seen, he's progressing VERY well. Given his age and his injury, sure, I can see him being worse than what he once was...but isn't that better still than Kepp defensively? And if not...we've still got Kepp & Hairston...and they're not going to be WORSE, that'll be a split.
As for Hernandez, I need to see him before I can make a call on that. But I just can't see him being much worse defensively than that 3-headed monstrosity from last year. At worst I see that as being a wash and his bat making up for it. Hanigan, however, is quite good behind the dish and I think he'll get a good portion of the time behind there too. Just because Hernandez got a good contract doesn't mean he'll automatically get all the starts. Hanigan's earned some time back there too and I think he'll get it.
The only spot I see any regression defensively is in center. And even there, I don't see a HUGE regression. Because while there is some there obviously, the difference is made up by the improvement in RF & LF. Overall I see a much better defensive team...and I don't even think it's close (although I'd still like to see it improved even more...especially at SS).
Or catcher and CF for that matter? Is this just defense or both?
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Put it together last year?
He played in 80 games, whoopie. Since 2003, Jerry Hairston has been the textbook definition of not durable. He also hasn't batted above .300 since 2004.
Jerry Hairston's had exactly 1367 good AB out of his career AB of 2795. 49%, awesome...
2006 and 2007, Jerry Hairston was Juan Castro. I guess I'm just a little hesitant to have high hopes for Jerry Hairston, especially when he averages 89 G a season, and has only hit for an AVG better than .300 twice in those 10 years.
Combine the fact that he's a career .700 OPS guy batting .260, and plays at best below average D at any of his positions then sure, I'm giddy for the 2009 Reds relying on Jerry Hairston.
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