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Thread: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

  1. #136
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    The fact that you can't expect a scout to accurately rank the five best fielding shortstops indicates that there is at least a little (more like a lot) of subjectivity in scouting, which of course comes with all the little flaws like confirmation bias, selective memory, etc. No one's eyes are ultimately reliable indicators of ability. At best, they are somewhat reliable measures of relative ability, and that's trained scouts only.

    I know defensive metrics still currently don't make a good case for themselves, but that doesn't mean that a defensive metric that could give a full picture of defensive ability is impossible to derive, it just means we don't currently have the technology/ability to get the inputs for such a metric.
    I agree(d)...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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  3. #137
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Scouts will always have a place in the game to find the talent and bring it to the professional field of play. Then the player sinks or swims of his own accord, due to the work he compiles on the field (ie- his stats).


    Perfect description of how the interaction works best...

    edit: then I finished reading the thread and saw that jojo described it even better! to him too.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Not enough time the day to see enough of every shortstop in the AL was my original point...
    Okay, thanks for clearing that up.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  5. #139
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Is there somehow any way the Reds can possibly make up for not drafting Jered Weaver and Tim Lincecum versus the alternatives? Is there somehow any possible way that the Reds could have failed even more recently with their draft picks and development given the options that have been literally handed to them on silver platters?



    Yeah. Still waiting for those guys. But at least we spent a few million bucks internationally on kids who'll have to wait quite a few years to drink legally.
    ... not sure about you, but I'm constantly reminded that the Reds haven't failed recently with their draft picks...

  6. #140
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Ideally an organization should seek to develop the best scouting systems and best sabermetric systems possible and integrate them as seamlessly as possible as early as possible in their player development/player valuation philosophy.

    It's intuitive isn't it-having the most and best information should lead to the best decisions?
    Bingo.

    Technology hasn't just enabled us to find out things scouts couldn't tell us before; it's enabled scouts to do their jobs better, if they care to use the tools. The NFL guy whose whole day is spent breaking down video and entering the relevant data points into the computer, or the assistant coach watching every snap of a kid's collegiate career, grading not just results but technique and effort -- are they scouts or performance analysts? Either, and both, and the distinction isn't really important.

    Similarly, the hypothetical "top 5 AL shortstops" question -- a scout cannot watch enough games in person to make a solid determination. But he can watch enough video to do it, if he has access to the right video and the right tools.

    If I was a GM or in charge of player development, I'd have a top-notch video setup for every one of my affiliates, and access to the video cataloging system the big club has. Whatever I needed to know beyond the stats, I could pull up the video and find out. And for all I know, some teams are already doing this.
    Not all who wander are lost

  7. #141
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Bingo.

    Technology hasn't just enabled us to find out things scouts couldn't tell us before; it's enabled scouts to do their jobs better, if they care to use the tools. The NFL guy whose whole day is spent breaking down video and entering the relevant data points into the computer, or the assistant coach watching every snap of a kid's collegiate career, grading not just results but technique and effort -- are they scouts or performance analysts? Either, and both, and the distinction isn't really important.

    Similarly, the hypothetical "top 5 AL shortstops" question -- a scout cannot watch enough games in person to make a solid determination. But he can watch enough video to do it, if he has access to the right video and the right tools.

    If I was a GM or in charge of player development, I'd have a top-notch video setup for every one of my affiliates, and access to the video cataloging system the big club has. Whatever I needed to know beyond the stats, I could pull up the video and find out. And for all I know, some teams are already doing this.
    The problem I see with the top 5 AL SS question is that it is very subjective in nature. Scouts as well as defensive stats probably would disagree. Its kind of like asking who are the top 5 QB's in the NFL. There would be a handful of players up for the consideration of best or top 5 SS but to narrow it down to one definite list would become very difficult. I think a better system would be a tier system. You would have your top tier defensive SS and there wouldn't be much debate about the top guys, more the fringe guys.

    Scouts are able to evaluate the things that stats can not. Bat speed, foot speed, reaction time, jumps, etc are all things that scouts can give a description based upon. When Andruw Jones was in shape he was one of the best CF's in the game. He got such a good jump off the ball that he was able to play a shallow CF. This allowed him to get to more balls and pitchers loved having him play CF.

  8. #142
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The problem I see with the top 5 AL SS question is that it is very subjective in nature. Scouts as well as defensive stats probably would disagree. Its kind of like asking who are the top 5 QB's in the NFL. There would be a handful of players up for the consideration of best or top 5 SS but to narrow it down to one definite list would become very difficult. I think a better system would be a tier system. You would have your top tier defensive SS and there wouldn't be much debate about the top guys, more the fringe guys.

    Scouts are able to evaluate the things that stats can not. Bat speed, foot speed, reaction time, jumps, etc are all things that scouts can give a description based upon. When Andruw Jones was in shape he was one of the best CF's in the game. He got such a good jump off the ball that he was able to play a shallow CF. This allowed him to get to more balls and pitchers loved having him play CF.
    One big thin scouts bring to the table is being able to analyze why a player is struggling or succeeding. If its trade time and your scout knows why a player is hanging that curve that keeps getting drilled because of it, then maybe you want to try to get that guy thrown into the trade and you can fix him and get better results from it. Maybe the batter isn't doing this or that right anymore. Scouts see things like that. The job of an amateur scout and a MLB scout are entirely different things. They have two entirely different job descriptions and job skills.

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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't want to take this into ron made a personal attack on me, because he didn't and I know what he is saying. I do just want to put it out there though that even I don't think every prospect will work out. If you read enough of my work you would see that I have some questions on a whole lot of guys in the system.

    I do want to address the quote from highlife though. The Reds have had plenty of guys over the past year come to fruition and show something in the majors. They also have a ton of talent at the AA/AAA level. This isn't the same farm it was even 2-3 years ago. Of course not everyone will make it. Guys fizzle, get hurt, can't adjust.... it happens in every system. I do think that the comment though isn't completely warranted for the current system thats been in place over the past two seasons or so. Prior to that, sure, that comment fit pretty well. Now? Not so much.
    What I quoted I don't think was a personal shot at you, but rather a very accurate statement regarding prospects in general, and IMO the Reds haven't had great success bringing guys up through the system. We can't expect our farm to produce/yield a Cueto, Bruce & Votto every season. You're right, guys will fizzle, get hurt and not adjust to the lumber from the aluminum.

  10. #144
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    What I quoted I don't think was a personal shot at you, but rather a very accurate statement regarding prospects in general, and IMO the Reds haven't had great success bringing guys up through the system. We can't expect our farm to produce/yield a Cueto, Bruce & Votto every season. You're right, guys will fizzle, get hurt and not adjust to the lumber from the aluminum.
    I didn't think it was a shot at me either, which is why I stated it in my post because I didn't want anyone to think me or ron were getting into it with each other or anything.

    However I will say the Reds haven't had great suggest bringing guys up in the past, but last year they did pretty darn good and while they won't bring up a Votto/Cueto/Bruce type every year, they also brought up a Thompson, Roenicke, Dickerson, Hanigan, Ramirez and Herrera. All of whom showed some success when used correctly. Those types of players are the kinds of guys who can start coming up every year with a real good guy mixed in every now and again.

    Not everyone can make it, but the Reds are at a point where not everyone making it doesn't hurt so much because the depth is there that the next guy can step up now. In the past if the top 5 prospects didn't pan out you were left with 26 year old AAA lifers. Times are changing.

  11. #145
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The problem I see with the top 5 AL SS question is that it is very subjective in nature. Scouts as well as defensive stats probably would disagree. Its kind of like asking who are the top 5 QB's in the NFL. There would be a handful of players up for the consideration of best or top 5 SS but to narrow it down to one definite list would become very difficult.
    If a GM or scout can't articulate what he means by "best," that's a problem in and of itself. There has to be a standard to grade against or the exercise is meaningless. In the absence of a proven accepted-by-everyone methodology, yes, there's some subjectivity involved in defining that standard, but it still has to be done.
    Not all who wander are lost

  12. #146
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Scouts assess actions. Stats assess outcomes. Both are necessary and shouldn't be considered substitutes. The problems arise when we try to measure one with the other.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #147
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Please let me say my earlier post was not meant to be a shot at Doug.

    Like I said I love and respect the work that Doug puts into the Minor League side of this forum. I'm not very good at putting my thoughts into words, or making a clear point of what I'm trying to say.

    What I was saying is Doug, or anyone else can look at the numbers and pretty much give us the same or even better information than some of the tired/lazy Scouts on MLB payroll.

    Sure there are some Scouts worth their weight in gold, for everyone of those there are a dozen guys that tell their employers exactly what they want to hear.

    The lazy ones move from one Club to another, they will always have a job because of Who they know not because of What they know.

  14. #148
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Quoted and bolded for truth

    ... definitely seems to be the case for the majority of Reds prospects, no?

    I believe it seems to be the case for the majority of prospects of any team.

    As far as the Reds recent draft picks goes, never will all of us agree on those.

    It makes for great discusion.


  15. #149
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Please let me say my earlier post was not meant to be a shot at Doug.

    Like I said I love and respect the work that Doug puts into the Minor League side of this forum. I'm not very good at putting my thoughts into words, or making a clear point of what I'm trying to say.

    What I was saying is Doug, or anyone else can look at the numbers and pretty much give us the same or even better information than some of the tired/lazy Scouts on MLB payroll.

    Sure there are some Scouts worth their weight in gold, for everyone of those there are a dozen guys that tell their employers exactly what they want to hear.

    The lazy ones move from one Club to another, they will always have a job because of Who they know not because of What they know.
    How many scouts have you ever talked to?

    I think that you are entirely underestimating what scouts do. Big time.

  16. #150
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    How many scouts have you ever talked to?

    I think that you are entirely underestimating what scouts do. Big time.
    I've talked with a few over the years, I'm not on a first name basis with any of'em. I've had conversations with them at the ballpark and even had drinks with others at the old Cricket Cafe in downtown Cincinnati.

    They are human beings with many of the same virtues and vises as anyone else.



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