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Thread: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

  1. #46
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    We better hope that our defense and pitching is the best in baseball, b/c that's the only way we'll put a dent in that 170 runs, b/c we certainly won't put a dent in the difference with our offense (or lack thereof).
    Our offense will score more runs than last year. I am willing to bet on that one.


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  3. #47
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Dickerson better than Dunn defensively in LF is a no-brainer.

    Gomes or Hairston? I'm not that convinced. Heck, Gomes might be worse defensively, and Hairston's a statue at any position on the field...
    Adam Dunn:

    Career -55.7 UZR in LF, -9.6 UZR/150

    Jerry Hairston Jr:

    Career +5.2 UZR in LF, +16.2 UZR/150

  4. #48
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Adam Dunn:

    Career -55.7 UZR in LF, -9.6 UZR/150

    Jerry Hairston Jr:

    Career +5.2 UZR in LF, +16.2 UZR/150
    Everyone knows defensive stats suck.

  5. #49
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Our offense will score more runs than last year. I am willing to bet on that one.
    While that may be true, they won't score more than 725 R, so we're looking at 21 more RS from 2008.

    woo hoo...

    ... we need our pitching to give up RA in the range of the Jack McKeon era

  6. #50
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Adam Dunn:

    Career -55.7 UZR in LF, -9.6 UZR/150

    Jerry Hairston Jr:

    Career +5.2 UZR in LF, +16.2 UZR/150
    I call sample size shenanigans.

    Hairston's played a whopping 113 G in LF for his career. Not even 450 career defensive innings in LF.

    A younger, more healthy Hairston was definitely better than Dunn defensively in LF, but the current older, clearly less healthy Hairston isn't a given that he's better than Dunn defensively in LF.

  7. #51
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Hairston also grades out as a plus defender in CF with a +9.1 UZR/150 in 815.2 innings in CF. Listen, I love Dunner too but let's face it, he's an awful defender. I'm no fan of Hairston but he's a better defender than Dunn.

  8. #52
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Hairston also grades out as a plus defender in CF with a +9.1 UZR/150 in 815.2 innings in CF. Listen, I love Dunner too but let's face it, he's an awful defender. I'm no fan of Hairston but he's a better defender than Dunn.
    Dunn's not a good defender, that isn't my dispute.

    My dispute is that at this stage of his career, health and age, Hairston might be better than Dunn, but I wouldn't say it's an absolute given.

    I don't see what's unreasonable about that line of thinking...

  9. #53
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Dunn's not a good defender, that isn't my dispute.

    My dispute is that at this stage of his career, health and age, Hairston might be better than Dunn, but I wouldn't say it's an absolute given.

    I don't see what's unreasonable about that line of thinking...
    Hairston might be a neutral to +5 corner defender which would be significantly better than Dunn. But ya, sample sizes are an issue with him and it's not a given he could log 500 defensive innings in left.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #54
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I call sample size shenanigans.

    Hairston's played a whopping 113 G in LF for his career. Not even 450 career defensive innings in LF.

    A younger, more healthy Hairston was definitely better than Dunn defensively in LF, but the current older, clearly less healthy Hairston isn't a given that he's better than Dunn defensively in LF.
    Let's supplement those stats with our eyes. Who else other than Highlifeman21 thinks Adam Dunn is a better fielder than Jerry Hairston Jr. in LF?

  11. #55
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    My blind grandmother who heard one play by play where Dunn made a diving catch. (I don't actually have a blind grandmother but found this to be an apt example).

  12. #56
    Member Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Let's supplement those stats with our eyes. Who else other than Highlifeman21 thinks Adam Dunn is a better fielder than Jerry Hairston Jr. in LF?
    Not me.

    Most important abilities for outfield defense:
    1. speed
    2. speed
    3. possibly speed but likely the ability to read the ball off the bat & run good routes
    4. arm strength
    .

  13. #57
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    So, given the state of the 40 man roster as it stands right now, how would you create the optimal defensive/offensive team and starting 9?

    I'd go with this lineup:

    Dickerson CF
    EE 3B
    Votto 1B
    Bruce RF
    Gomes LF Needs a platoon partner badly
    Phillips 2B
    Hernandez/Hanigan C
    Janish SS
    P

    Bench:

    Kepp
    Hairston
    AGon
    Taveras
    Richar

    That leaves 11 pitchers.

    I'd hide Janish' weak bat in the 8 hole and have him stabilize the IF defense.
    Given the current 40 Man?

    Against RHP/Against LHP
    Dickerson/Hairston CF
    Rosales/Keppinger 3B
    Votto 1B
    EdE LF
    Bruce RF/Phillips 2B
    Phillips 2B/Hernandez C
    Hernandez C/Bruce RF
    Janish SS

    If I play my best offensively and defensively balanced team, some things have to be set down as rules that apply in all but emergency situations:

    1. EdE at 3B is history.
    2. Jeff Keppinger doesn't play an inning in the middle infield
    3. Keppinger and Phillips need to be hitting in key spots against LHP.
    4. Janish plays SS no matter how he hits unless Gonzalez returns to his former self (2005 or so version) or the Reds acquire somebody.
    5. Willy Taveras doesn't see the light of day unless its to pinch run.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  14. #58
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Let's supplement those stats with our eyes. Who else other than Highlifeman21 thinks Adam Dunn is a better fielder than Jerry Hairston Jr. in LF?
    Hairston would have to be an all-world defender to offset the loss of offense. I know, we are strictly focusing on defense here. Overall the defense should be a bit better than last year. Could be quite a bit better if Bruce and EE take big steps forward. I think the folks expecting Gonzalez to go back to being an above-average defender at SS are going to be sorely disappointed. I really can't see the offense being much better though, if at all.

  15. #59
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Not me.

    Most important abilities for outfield defense:
    1. speed
    2. speed
    3. possibly speed but likely the ability to read the ball off the bat & run good routes
    4. arm strength
    Willy Taveras has plenty of speed, yet the stats say he was a bad defender during his stint in Colorado.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #60
    Smooth WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Erardi- "Speed and defense": Is the defense as good as we're being told?

    Yeah, speed is one of the least valuable commodities of an OF defender if he takes bad routes and reads the ball off the bat poorly (Taveras ... Freel etc. etc.).


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