Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

[WebScorpion]

To be fair, Weathers was a gamble that busted on the fifth card.

The other guys?....well.....

If only we could 'split' him into two 20-year old pitchers... hmm, would they both have 3.25 ERAs, or 1.73 each?!

[SMcGavin]

The vast majority of RedsZone was calling for the Reds to offer Weathers arbitration, so that he could refuse it, and earn for the club a precious compensatory "draft pick". When he actually accepted their offer, the vast majority of RedsZone then howled its displeasure at ever offering arbitration. You can't have it both ways.

I think you might be confusing two different camps. I wanted Jocketty to offer him arb, so I did not blame Walt when Weathers accepted. I'm just hoping his thought process was the same as mine, that offering arb was a gamble that didn't work out, and not that Jocketty actually wanted Weathers back at $4M.

What I do blame Jocketty for is signing Lincoln while the arb offer was still on the table to Weathers. Signing Lincoln would have been fine if Weathers was gone. But now they are both coming back and there is no room in the bullpen for some cheap kids like Roenicke/Herrera. All the payflex the Reds had this offseason got spent in the bullpen, which was the best part of the team in 08.

[Sea Ray]

What I do blame Jocketty for is signing Lincoln while the arb offer was still on the table to Weathers. Signing Lincoln would have been fine if Weathers was gone. But now they are both coming back and there is no room in the bullpen for some cheap kids like Roenicke/Herrera. All the payflex the Reds had this offseason got spent in the bullpen, which was the best part of the team in 08.

You make a good point. I don't think signing both Lincoln and Weathers was warranted. Cordero was certainly a splurge but it did fill a need. I have no problem with the Rhodes signing. We did not have any in house options to fill that role. The problem here was signing both Weathers and Lincoln to multimilliondollar deals.

[blumj]

I don't care what age he is. That kind of jack spent on a set-up guy, in light of this team's needs, thereby making it so they couldn't meet those needs, is frustrating. The Reds, as they are quick to tell us, are NOT the Yankees. And yet the Reds have spent on their bullpen like they are. Between Cordero/Weathers/Rhodes/Lincoln they are approaching $20 million. That's insane.

I didn't mind the money on Cordero (but understand why others have), but think they should have gone with less expensive in-house options in front of Cordero. So, yeah, the Weathers money was an odd choice for this team in light of what they now maintain their budget is.

Again, as I wrote elsewhere on another thread, either:

1. Jock was NOT aware of the true budget when he spent that kind of coin, thinking he had more back to make a run at an Abreu or Burrell or whomever; or

2. Jock WAS aware of the true budget and has committed GM malpractice this off-season.

By my count, the Yankees and Reds bullpens will each cost about $21M in 2009. The Red Sox bullpen could get into that neighborhood only if Saito earns all his $7M in incentives and bonus. The Mets will spend more than $27M on theirs, but Wagner's taking up $10M of that.

[REDREAD]

4 million here---Weathers

2 million there---Taveras

Another 2 million over there---Hairston

Another several million in across the way---Rhodes

Man, it sure adds up quickly, doesn't it? Before you know it, you can't afford a difference-making bat in a market where difference making bats are ripe for the taking with a reasonable contract.

Rats.

Yeah, but on the flip side, the Reds desperately needed 3 relievers, and a catcher. One can make a reasonable argument that Taveras and Hairston weren't needed, but if you subtract Hernandez and the 3 relievers from this squad (roughly 10 or 11 million) and add Dye, the team is still going to be a mess. Not only that, you have to cross your fingers that Dickerson can play every game in CF. You also are stuck with Keppinger at SS. Still a very bad team.

[REDREAD]

Wayne irked me with his wasteful spending, and so far this offseason Walt's proved to be no better than Wayne in that same regard.

Not sure I'd go that far.

It was a mistake to offer Weathers arb, but the majority of the board agreed with the decision at the time. IMO, Weathers' fair value is 2 million.. waste of 1.9 million.

Now, I know Tavares is almost universally blasted here. I think he might earn his 2 million next year. However, I think even the most cynical would say that Tavares is worth 1 million/year.. So worst case, the waste factor here is 4 million over the next 2 years, possibly less.

Not even close to the money Wayne flushed on Castro, Stanton, AGon, Freel, Cormier, Hat in 2008,etc.

[kpresidente]

Yeah, but on the flip side, the Reds desperately needed 3 relievers, and a catcher. One can make a reasonable argument that Taveras and Hairston weren't needed, but if you subtract Hernandez and the 3 relievers from this squad (roughly 10 or 11 million) and add Dye, the team is still going to be a mess. Not only that, you have to cross your fingers that Dickerson can play every game in CF. You also are stuck with Keppinger at SS. Still a very bad team.

Gonzo is the SS. Any difference between Kepp and Hairston is negligible.

Dickerson can't be worse than Taveras, in any aspect of the game. Plus, if we don't get Hernandez, we'd still have Freel, and a Freel/Dickerson platoon is much better than Taveras.

Catcher? We didn't need a catcher. We have Hanigan. Hernandez is a career .750 OPS hitter on the downside of his career meaning he probably won't even hit that figure. I guarantee you Hanigan could at least get close enough to that number to make the move pointless compared to adding Dye (and play better defense to boot).

The relievers would be Roenicke and Herrera, plus one or two of the losers in the 5th starter battle. Maybe it would be a slight rush on Herrera, but I bet he'd be fine and Roenicke is ML ready. Now we're just holding him back.

[REDREAD]

Man my gambling references are awful, I was going for blackjack.

It's funny that best value the Reds could have gotten out of Weathers was him leaving. Yet here they are stuck with him again.

That's why it's a bad gamble, IMO.

Never offer arbitration to someone you don't want back unless you are 100% certain they can get big bucks somewhere else. This is the same reason we didn't offer Greg Vaugh arb but did offer Juan Guzman arb after 1999.

It seemed pretty obvious that Weathers was going to get paid more in arb than the open market. Not trying to toot my own horn, but I said that at the time.

[Highlifeman21]

Not sure I'd go that far.

It was a mistake to offer Weathers arb, but the majority of the board agreed with the decision at the time. IMO, Weathers' fair value is 2 million.. waste of 1.9 million.

Now, I know Tavares is almost universally blasted here. I think he might earn his 2 million next year. However, I think even the most cynical would say that Tavares is worth 1 million/year.. So worst case, the waste factor here is 4 million over the next 2 years, possibly less.

Not even close to the money Wayne flushed on Castro, Stanton, AGon, Freel, Cormier, Hat in 2008,etc.

You're right that it's not close to Wayne's financial flushing, but Walt's going down the same path, IMO. I was hoping the switch from Wayne to Walt would eliminate wasteful spending on suck.

[REDREAD]

What I do blame Jocketty for is signing Lincoln while the arb offer was still on the table to Weathers. Signing Lincoln would have been fine if Weathers was gone. But now they are both coming back and there is no room in the bullpen for some cheap kids like Roenicke/Herrera. All the payflex the Reds had this offseason got spent in the bullpen, which was the best part of the team in 08.

Right now the pen is Weathers, Bray, Codero, Burton, Lincoln, Rhodes. Am I forgeting someone?

There's an open spot in the fifth slot in the rotation for a kid. If a bullpen kid really earns a spot in spring training, they can carry 12 pitchers. It's not as if the bench is packed with talent on the position player front. Someone like Rhodes or Lincoln is very tradable at the deadline if the Reds suddenly find themselves with a young bullpen kid knocking down the door.

I guess my point is that there's no reason to rush up Roenicke and the other kids. Another half season of AAA isn't going to kill them, even if they are ready.

If the Reds didn't sign Lincoln (or a vet like him), then they are forced to either go with a kid (ready or not) or they will have to scramble for an arm in spring training, which probably leads to another Josh Fogg.

Very seldom does a team make it through an entire season without someone in the bullpen going on the DL as well.

The point is that the kids really aren't blocked. They aren't going to get a job handed to them, but there's wiggle room to add a kid that is ready. That is a great position to be in. The kids aren't forced to be rushed.

[REDREAD]

Gonzo is the SS. Any difference between Kepp and Hairston is negligible.

Dickerson can't be worse than Taveras, in any aspect of the game. Plus, if we don't get Hernandez, we'd still have Freel, and a Freel/Dickerson platoon is much better than Taveras.

Catcher? We didn't need a catcher. We have Hanigan. Hernandez is a career .750 OPS hitter on the downside of his career meaning he probably won't even hit that figure. I guarantee you Hanigan could at least get close enough to that number to make the move pointless compared to adding Dye (and play better defense to boot).

The relievers would be Roenicke and Herrera, plus one or two of the losers in the 5th starter battle. Maybe it would be a slight rush on Herrera, but I bet he'd be fine and Roenicke is ML ready. Now we're just holding him back.

Freel is a bigger waste of cash than Tavares is. He is OBP challenged as well, and generally stupid. Tavares has a chance to be better than Freel (not a given, but a chance to be better), at 1/2 the price in 2009.

We get Harriston and Tavares in 2009 for what Freel would cost us, and Freel might not even be healthy to play next year. It was brillant to dump Freel.

The team needed to add OF, do you not agree with that? It also needed another body at SS. What if Keppinger gets hurt? There goes your backup at every infield position.

Hannigan can't play every game. Another catcher was needed. We get Hernandez for about what it would've cost to retain Valentine (maybe 500-800k more). That is a no brainer.

Herrera is not a major league reliever. He's emergency filler. He's not being held down in AAA because Walt is stupid. He's not ML talent.

If Roenocke is ready, there's room for him. I'm glad we're not forced to call him up.

In summary, a lot depends on AGon, Dickerson, and Hannigan. You are more optimistic than I am. But I can guarantee that if you put in three youngsters instead of Weathers, Lincoln, and Rhodes, the bullpen would be a huge liability. I'm with you that the Reds should've not offered Weathers arb and found another solution.. but Rhodes and Lincoln were solid, cheap signings.

[REDREAD]

You're right that it's not close to Wayne's financial flushing, but Walt's going down the same path, IMO. I was hoping the switch from Wayne to Walt would eliminate wasteful spending on suck.

We'll have to revisit this at the end of the season and see how well Taveres and Weathers earn their pay.

In all honesty, if Weathers can repeat his last season's performance, I'm not going to complain at all, even if he does it by dancing the tightrope.

IMO, if Tavares can OBP .335 and keep his outstanding baserunning up, he earns his 2 million.

[SMcGavin]

Right now the pen is Weathers, Bray, Codero, Burton, Lincoln, Rhodes. Am I forgeting someone?

There's an open spot in the fifth slot in the rotation for a kid. If a bullpen kid really earns a spot in spring training, they can carry 12 pitchers. It's not as if the bench is packed with talent on the position player front. Someone like Rhodes or Lincoln is very tradable at the deadline if the Reds suddenly find themselves with a young bullpen kid knocking down the door.

I guess my point is that there's no reason to rush up Roenicke and the other kids. Another half season of AAA isn't going to kill them, even if they are ready.

If the Reds didn't sign Lincoln (or a vet like him), then they are forced to either go with a kid (ready or not) or they will have to scramble for an arm in spring training, which probably leads to another Josh Fogg.

Very seldom does a team make it through an entire season without someone in the bullpen going on the DL as well.

The point is that the kids really aren't blocked. They aren't going to get a job handed to them, but there's wiggle room to add a kid that is ready. That is a great position to be in. The kids aren't forced to be rushed.

I would be very surprised if the last bullpen spot didn't go to Masset, Owings, or Ramirez. The Reds have limited money, and they need to maximize the cheap assets they have so money is saved to spend elsewhere.

And I'm not just calling for youth for the sake of youth - IMO Roenicke and Herrera are both pretty clearly ready for the bigs. They were dominant in AAA. Heck, Josh Roenicke turns 27 in August. Herrera is 24. I'm not asking for them to be rushed - they are ready. And deploying them correctly could have saved the team a significant amount of cash to use on upgrades elsewhere.

[SMcGavin]

In all honesty, if Weathers can repeat his last season's performance, I'm not going to complain at all, even if he does it by dancing the tightrope.

Nobody would. The point is that it's unlikely to happen.

[durl]

Nobody would. The point is that it's unlikely to happen.

Didn't many people say the same thing last year?