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Thread: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

  1. #151
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    I agree that Weathers is a little underrated. He's not flashy but he just continues to put up pretty good seasons. If we're not in the playoff hunt let him go to someone that will be. I just wouldn't ask for that much for him.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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  3. #152
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not convinced JoJo.

    In 2006 David Weathers Had a 6.11 K/9, a 4.15 BB/9. His BABIP was .237. His FIP was 5.37 while his ERA was 3.54. He was fairly dominant in the second half. After the season, I was all over this board proclaiming that he was not going to repeat and it was all BABIP. The Reds signed him and many (including me) were predicting doom.

    In 2007, Weathers K/9 dropped down to 5.56 while his walks/9 improved to 3.13 and his HR/9 really improved to .46. His BABIP was a still low .269. His ERA was 3.59 while his FIP suggested 3.91. This time he had a low HR/FB rate of 3.8% so again, after the season I was with the group that was against the Reds retaining him and predicting doom.

    In 2008, Weathers stats were virtually the same with a 5.97 K/9, a 3.89 BB/9 and a .78 HR/9. His BABIP was .319 and his HR/FB rate was 8.2%. His ERA was a slightly better 3.25 even though his BABIP took a big jump along with his HR rate. His FIP was 4.36. After '08, I gave up. I think Weathers has a higher than normal ability to control batted balls and just isn't a guy who can be captured by the numbers. I gave up predicting gloom and doom and accept that he's OK out there.

    So far in 2009, his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all in similar territory. His BABIP is again low at .227 as is his HR/FB rate at 5.4%. His ERA is at 2.76 and his FIP is 4.05. Those BABIP, HR/FB and FIP numbers would suggest a negative correction is around the corner, but it never seems to happen with this guy.

    If the Reds are waving the white flag on 2009, then Weathers should be the first to go. The team has lots of young pen arms to sort through and Weathers probably will bring something back. But, if the team intends to continue competing, Weathers should stay until the predictions become reality. The predictions just aren't ever right with him.
    Here's really why I'm such a Weathers agnostic (BTW, I think Weathers is actually a nice guy and likely a good influence in the club):

    His peripherals are below average for the pen. Well, they're below average for a major league pitcher, period.

    His "luck metrics" (or randomness metrics if one prefers; LOB%, HR/FB, BABIP) are screaming in that they have all been significantly better than his career norms but not in a consistent pattern belying an underlying skill that might be "controlling" them.

    Finally, turning off the computer and using the eyes also reveals a guy that is less than inspiring.

    He's the perfect storm.... and I'm very hesitant to believe that he's weathered it by possessing a skill that is subtle enough to escape the numbers and the eyes when there is an explanation (randomness).

    Like I said, it's great that he's given the Reds innings. It's not so great that the Reds couldn't figure out another way.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-12-2009 at 10:42 AM.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #153
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's really why I'm such a Weathers agnostic (BTW, I think Weathers is actually a nice guy and likely a good influence in the club):

    His peripherals are below average for the pen. Well, they're below average for a major league pitcher, period.

    His "luck metrics" (or randomness metrics if one prefers; LOB%, HR/FB, BABIP) are screaming in that they have all been significantly better than his career norms but not in a consistent pattern belying an underlying skill that might be "controlling" them.

    Finally, turning off the computer and using the eyes also reveals a guy that is less than inspiring.

    He's the perfect storm.... and I'm very hesitant to believe that he's weathered it by possessing a skill that is subtle enough to escape the numbers and the eyes when there is an explanation (randomness).

    Like I said, it's great that he's given the Reds innings. It's not so great that the Reds couldn't figure out another way.
    I get the logic. But its been 3 and a half seasons now where his performance numbers say he should be getting killed and his luck numbers say he's lucky. I think its something else.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #154
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I get the logic. But its been 3 and a half seasons now where his performance numbers say he should be getting killed and his luck numbers say he's lucky. I think its something else.
    He should bottle it and sell it....

    Unfortunately given his age he's going to implode just as a fact of life so there are no answers to this debate by looking forward.

    Weathers production is what it is.

    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #155
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Apparently not the team that has given him a significant raise every year since '06.
    A yearly raise used to be an American institution, as is performing ones job consistently in a less than flashy way.

    Warren Spahn describes it better:

    "A pitcher needs two pitches, one they're looking for and one to cross them up."

    "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing."

    And then

    “Consistency requires you to be as ignorant today as you were a year ago.”

    Bernard Berenson

  7. #156
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    A yearly raise used to be an American institution, as is performing ones job consistently in a less than flashy way.

    Warren Spahn describes it better:

    "A pitcher needs two pitches, one they're looking for and one to cross them up."

    "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing."

    And then

    “Consistency requires you to be as ignorant today as you were a year ago.”

    Bernard Berenson
    I've stated my case pretty clearly (and it goes much deeper than "flashiness") and I seriously doubt anyone on either side is going to move at this point.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #157
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He should bottle it and sell it....

    Unfortunately given his age he's going to implode just as a fact of life so there are no answers to this debate by looking forward.

    Weathers production is what it is.

    All pitchers will implode at some point...however, he has given Cincy 4.5 years of sub-4.00 ERA relief pitching while predictions of his implosion have all fallen to the wayside.

    We can start the "Lincecum will implode" discussion now and, at some point, we will have predicted it accurately.

  9. #158
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    All pitchers will implode at some point...however, he has given Cincy 4.5 years of sub-4.00 ERA relief pitching while predictions of his implosion have all fallen to the wayside.

    We can start the "Lincecum will implode" discussion now and, at some point, we will have predicted it accurately.
    I think you completely missed the point of that post.

    I will say this though, discussions about Weathers have been less about implosion and more about true skill.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #159
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I've stated my case pretty clearly (and it goes much deeper than "flashiness") and I seriously doubt anyone on either side is going to move at this point.
    yeah, but it's fun.

    Weathers is like the guy who does his job with a tool he invented, one day that tool will break. Then he'll have to go home.


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