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Thread: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

  1. #136
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I've been focused on the production of the Reds outfield this year. Taveras, Bruce, Nix. Just a guess, but I doubt there is any outfield in major league baseball with so little offensive production this year.

    David Weathers isn't perfect, but he really doesn't warrant a thread criticizing him. He's been a mainstay for 4 or 5 years now and generally does very well. Rhodes, Weathers and Cordero have been the backbone of the team this year IMO.

    The Reds' offense -- particularly in the outfield -- is so poor that it overwhelms any possible complaint we may have about a set up man like Weathers.
    Playing devils advocate here but maybe the same thinking that leads to Weathers being acquired and used as a high leverage arm leads to outfields like the Reds have?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #137
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I've been focused on the production of the Reds outfield this year. Taveras, Bruce, Nix. Just a guess, but I doubt there is any outfield in major league baseball with so little offensive production this year.

    David Weathers isn't perfect, but he really doesn't warrant a thread criticizing him. He's been a mainstay for 4 or 5 years now and generally does very well. Rhodes, Weathers and Cordero have been the backbone of the team this year IMO.

    The Reds' offense -- particularly in the outfield -- is so poor that it overwhelms any possible complaint we may have about a set up man like Weathers.
    NL outfielders OPS: .767
    Reds outfielders OPS: .690

    I think it's fair to talk about Weathers' usage. I agree that he somehow manages to get the job done most of the time. However, his relies on defense along with Rhodes and Cordero without their ability to miss bats and a worrisome BABIP.

    I guess as long as he has a good supply of mandrake root / manna, he'll be OK though.

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  4. #138
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    God Bless David Weathers. I hope his luck holds out.

    Weathers is a pitch to contact kinda guy, He throws the ball and most of the time somebody hits it hard right at a defender.

    Scares the heck outta me.

  5. #139
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Is it as faulty as bringing up that possibility and not backing it up? Here's another stat...batters had a .502 OPS against him in June. So, on average, he faced someone worse than Willy Taveras every at-bat.
    This was in response to your cherry picked stat saying he allowed 4 runs in his last 17 appearances. I don't know how to lookup that stat. I did notice that in high leverage situations, Weathers has walked 11 and K'd 9, and hitters have a .393 OBP in that same situation. Thus supporting my claim that he is not the man suited for high leverage situations, such as coming in with the bases loaded to face Pujols (which is where this entire argument started).



    Nothing to be ashamed about. Pujols is a pretty good ballplayer, last time I checked.
    Didn't say he should be ashamed about it. Fact is he shouldn't have been put in that situation. He doesn't have the stuff to get Pujols out, and it's been proven year after year.



    Probably somewhere in between. He's been a solid reliever.
    Yes he has. He's just not a set up man. I never want him in the situation he was in last Friday on the Cardinals. That is not a knock on Weathers, but simply the manager, who is favoring the veteran in this situation.



    Weathers has been really lucky so far. If he continues to pitch to contact the rest of the season (and considering he has no choice, he will), he is going to start giving up some runs. ERA's aren't as low as Weathers's ERA without a much better strikeout rate. It's an indication of a significant amount of luck. Sure you can look at his ERA and say he's been great (and I have no major complaints about his performance), but the fact is he has been lucky, and we are in some trouble if we (and Dusty) expect him to continue that pace.

  6. #140
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    NL outfielders OPS: .767
    Reds outfielders OPS: .690


    I think it's fair to talk about Weathers' usage. I agree that he somehow manages to get the job done most of the time. However, his relies on defense along with Rhodes and Cordero without their ability to miss bats and a worrisome BABIP.

    I guess as long as he has a good supply of mandrake root / manna, he'll be OK though.

    Taveras (.575) & McDonald (.475) kinda skew that OPS just a little.

    Weathers will be gone after the season although he's one player I'd make VERY available in any trade talks since he's not in the plans for 2010.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  7. #141
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    Taveras (.575) & McDonald (.475) kinda skew that OPS just a little.
    Taveras and McDonald are and were a part of the Reds outfield.

    It's an accurate measure.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #142
    Member durl's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Weathers is largely a guy who relies upon his defense.
    So is every pitcher who doesn't manage 27 Ks per game. Or 15, for that matter.

    Weathers' isn't an overpowering pitcher but you don't have to be overpowering to be successful. I believe we should be thrilled to have a pitcher in the bullpen with his stats.

  9. #143
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Amazing how a guy can be so bad and yet have appeared in so many games.

  10. #144
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Taveras and McDonald are and were a part of the Reds outfield.

    It's an accurate measure.
    Accurate yes but, and I'm just sayin', it seems the rest just seem to be thought of in more of a negative light then they should be. But that's for a different thread or a pm.

    As far as the thread topic....

    Weathers has appeared in 34 games and has allowed any runs to score (earned or unearned) in only 7 of them. He's never been thought of as one of the best relievers for good reason but that doesn't mean he hasn't done a decent job. The only problem I have with him is that was alot of money for a reliever that isn't a closer. But then our closer makes too much for my tastes as well.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  11. #145
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Amazing how a guy can be so bad and yet have appeared in so many games.
    Weathers at this point in his career is thin ice and he has been since '06.

    It's great the Reds haven't drowned yet but that doesn't mean they should be driving an SUV out there and building an ice fishing cabin....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #146
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Weathers at this point in his career is thin ice and he has been since '06.

    It's great the Reds haven't drowned yet but that doesn't mean they should be driving an SUV out there and building an ice fishing cabin....
    You mean a late 30's pitcher has a small and diminishing future?

    Who would have thunk it?

  13. #147
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Weathers at this point in his career is thin ice and he has been since '06.
    ...or you have been wrong about him for a long time. He knows how to get it done and usually does.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #148
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    You mean a late 30's pitcher has a small and diminishing future?

    Who would have thunk it?
    Apparently not the team that has given him a significant raise every year since '06.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #149
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    ...or you have been wrong about him for a long time. He knows how to get it done and usually does.
    He's happily bounced between unsustainable levels of luck metrics.

    We're not seeing a skill.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #150
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Weathers, Reds avoid arbitration with $3.9M deal

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's happily bounced between unsustainable levels of luck metrics.

    We're not seeing a skill.
    I'm not convinced JoJo.

    In 2006 David Weathers Had a 6.11 K/9, a 4.15 BB/9. His BABIP was .237. His FIP was 5.37 while his ERA was 3.54. He was fairly dominant in the second half. After the season, I was all over this board proclaiming that he was not going to repeat and it was all BABIP. The Reds signed him and many (including me) were predicting doom.

    In 2007, Weathers K/9 dropped down to 5.56 while his walks/9 improved to 3.13 and his HR/9 really improved to .46. His BABIP was a still low .269. His ERA was 3.59 while his FIP suggested 3.91. This time he had a low HR/FB rate of 3.8% so again, after the season I was with the group that was against the Reds retaining him and predicting doom.

    In 2008, Weathers stats were virtually the same with a 5.97 K/9, a 3.89 BB/9 and a .78 HR/9. His BABIP was .319 and his HR/FB rate was 8.2%. His ERA was a slightly better 3.25 even though his BABIP took a big jump along with his HR rate. His FIP was 4.36. After '08, I gave up. I think Weathers has a higher than normal ability to control batted balls and just isn't a guy who can be captured by the numbers. I gave up predicting gloom and doom and accept that he's OK out there.

    So far in 2009, his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all in similar territory. His BABIP is again low at .227 as is his HR/FB rate at 5.4%. His ERA is at 2.76 and his FIP is 4.05. Those BABIP, HR/FB and FIP numbers would suggest a negative correction is around the corner, but it never seems to happen with this guy.

    If the Reds are waving the white flag on 2009, then Weathers should be the first to go. The team has lots of young pen arms to sort through and Weathers probably will bring something back. But, if the team intends to continue competing, Weathers should stay until the predictions become reality. The predictions just aren't ever right with him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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